Then USA is poorer than OTL.
Hint : Marshall aid brought a 300% ROI for USA.
Europe is much worse immediately after the war, about same middle term and a bit better long term.
List of World War II butterflies
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Then USA is poorer than OTL.
Hint : Marshall aid brought a 300% ROI for USA.
Europe is much worse immediately after the war, about same middle term and a bit better long term.
France holds in 1940 ( almost any butterfly can do this, the german got so many lucky break OTL ). A war of attrition starts, with the front line running in the middle of France.
Hitler doesn't declare war on USA. USA starts war against germany a few month later. Japan first policy.
De Gaulles is killed by a snipper on 25/08/44, when walking on champs elysées
Two MPs try to arrest De Gaulles and sent him back to Uk on the 25/06/44
Rouvillois takes the KHehl bridge ( the allies have an intact bridge over the rhine in South Germany in October 44 )
Hitler doesn't declare war on USA. USA starts war against germany a few month later. Japan first policy.
De Gaulles is killed by a snipper on 25/08/44, when walking on champs elysées
Two MPs try to arrest De Gaulles and sent him back to Uk on the 25/06/44
Rouvillois takes the KHehl bridge ( the allies have an intact bridge over the rhine in South Germany in October 44 )
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Tielhard
Banned
In response to my suggestion that if the SS Ohio did not make Valetta Malta would fall Magnum wrote:
How so?
On the June relief attempt 6 merchant ships went east from Gibraltar and 11 went west from Alexandria. Both merchant fleets were escorted by large fleets of warships including capital ships. Two merchant ships got through but they carried no significant fuel oil stocks. The cost of this convoy? Five RN cruisers damaged, four destroyers sunk, one destroyer damaged, six merchant ships sank, three damaged, seven turned back.
On the August attempt they used the best and fastest merchant ships left in the British merchant navy, some reflagged US vessels including Ohio and two US ships Almeria Lykes and Santa Elisa forteen hulls in all. They came from the West and were escorted by a massive fleet. At the same time a second diversionary battle fleet set sail from Alexandria. This time the RN casualties were
1 aircraft carrier sunk (Eagle), 1 damaged (Indomitable)
2 cruisers sunk (Cairo, Manchester), 2 damaged (Nigeria, Kenya)
1 destroyer sunk (Foresight), 4 damaged
The Merchant marine casualties were:
MV Clan Ferguson (sunk)
MV Deucalion (sunk)
MV Dorset (sunk)
MV Empire Hope (sunk)
SS Santa Elisa (sunk)
SS Waimarama (sunk)
MV Wairangi (sunk)
MV Glenorchy (sunk)
SS Almeria Lykes (sunk)
The following merchant ships made it in to the Grand Harbour:
MV Port Chalmers (arrived 13 August)
MV Rochester Castle (damaged, arrived 13 August)
MV Melbourne Star (arrived 13 August)
MV Brisbane Star (damaged, arrived 14 August)
SS Ohio (tanker, damaged beyond repair supported by two corvettes Penn and Ledbury, arrived 15 August where upon it broke in two)
Mason Ohio's captain got the GC two US volunteers Larsen and Dales on the Ohio got the Merchant Marine Distinguished Service Medal.
Most of the merchant ships were carrying fuel oil but not enough to keep Malta going. Only the Ohio could bring in that much fuel. No fuel would have meant that the island would have to surrender in less than 2 weeks and the British simply did not have enough fast merchant ships left to try another convoy.
How so?
On the June relief attempt 6 merchant ships went east from Gibraltar and 11 went west from Alexandria. Both merchant fleets were escorted by large fleets of warships including capital ships. Two merchant ships got through but they carried no significant fuel oil stocks. The cost of this convoy? Five RN cruisers damaged, four destroyers sunk, one destroyer damaged, six merchant ships sank, three damaged, seven turned back.
On the August attempt they used the best and fastest merchant ships left in the British merchant navy, some reflagged US vessels including Ohio and two US ships Almeria Lykes and Santa Elisa forteen hulls in all. They came from the West and were escorted by a massive fleet. At the same time a second diversionary battle fleet set sail from Alexandria. This time the RN casualties were
1 aircraft carrier sunk (Eagle), 1 damaged (Indomitable)
2 cruisers sunk (Cairo, Manchester), 2 damaged (Nigeria, Kenya)
1 destroyer sunk (Foresight), 4 damaged
The Merchant marine casualties were:
MV Clan Ferguson (sunk)
MV Deucalion (sunk)
MV Dorset (sunk)
MV Empire Hope (sunk)
SS Santa Elisa (sunk)
SS Waimarama (sunk)
MV Wairangi (sunk)
MV Glenorchy (sunk)
SS Almeria Lykes (sunk)
The following merchant ships made it in to the Grand Harbour:
MV Port Chalmers (arrived 13 August)
MV Rochester Castle (damaged, arrived 13 August)
MV Melbourne Star (arrived 13 August)
MV Brisbane Star (damaged, arrived 14 August)
SS Ohio (tanker, damaged beyond repair supported by two corvettes Penn and Ledbury, arrived 15 August where upon it broke in two)
Mason Ohio's captain got the GC two US volunteers Larsen and Dales on the Ohio got the Merchant Marine Distinguished Service Medal.
Most of the merchant ships were carrying fuel oil but not enough to keep Malta going. Only the Ohio could bring in that much fuel. No fuel would have meant that the island would have to surrender in less than 2 weeks and the British simply did not have enough fast merchant ships left to try another convoy.
How so
Assuming for the sake of argument that Malta surrenders around 27 Aug (and not everything you read in books that want to hype a particular event should be accepted uncritically) because of lack of fuel. Now Alam el Haifa is occurs 30 Aug to Sep 6. Given the time it takes supplies landed in Libya to reach Rommel the delta of Malta's surrender is negligible in its impact on the outcome of the battle. His offensive is stalled. Now in Oct the fall of Malta means he has more fuel and ammo and maybe a few more tanks but Montgomery's margin of superiority remains overwhelming and so the delta only means Rommel has more defensive options late in the battle complicating Montie's pursuit.
Nov 8: Operation Torch Rommel still has a major problem in his rear area to deal with. With Malta in Axis hands his logistics are improved but this merely prolongs the End Game.
Assuming for the sake of argument that Malta surrenders around 27 Aug (and not everything you read in books that want to hype a particular event should be accepted uncritically) because of lack of fuel. Now Alam el Haifa is occurs 30 Aug to Sep 6. Given the time it takes supplies landed in Libya to reach Rommel the delta of Malta's surrender is negligible in its impact on the outcome of the battle. His offensive is stalled. Now in Oct the fall of Malta means he has more fuel and ammo and maybe a few more tanks but Montgomery's margin of superiority remains overwhelming and so the delta only means Rommel has more defensive options late in the battle complicating Montie's pursuit.
Nov 8: Operation Torch Rommel still has a major problem in his rear area to deal with. With Malta in Axis hands his logistics are improved but this merely prolongs the End Game.
Do you have a source for that?
I'm not being picky I'm genuinely interested.
ROI is Rate of Interest?
I have no doubt Malta would have fallen. The axis commited a lot of ressources (actually most) to stop those convoys. However, with no political will to commit greater ressources to the theater, Rommel would have gotten (at the VERY best) at the Suez canal, by wich time the torch landings would have taken place. Unless the british retreat from the area, there's no way for the axis to beat them at this point.
Not right here, my references are packed about 500 km away; I can just say it was a number which sticked to my mind.
No, sorry; Return On Investment.
This includes the fact that, once the europeans had began to reequip with US equipment bought through Marshall aid ( one of the string built in was that US money had to be mostly spent on US goods ), they continued to do so with their own money for reason of compatibility.
BTW, only part of Marshall aid was lended; ( and I must admit I don't know the interest rate ); the rest was outright gift.
Isn't that assuming that the U.S. spends at similar rates as per OTL after the war?
Nope : it's assuming that US government cannot find to invest the money to generate a 3 to 1 return to the US economy in the post year wars
That does make sense. So, the Ameruicas won't be as well off in some respects. I suppose that the rate of return would be badly impacted if more of Europe went red, so to speak.
Alcuin
Banned
Oh there's a butterfly I forgot.
21 May 1941 as in OTL, a Spitfire reconnaissance aircraft photographs the German Battleship Bismarck in a Norwegian Fjord. In TTL, the Spitfire is shot down and the pilot is found to be wearing a US Naval uniform (as he was in OTL). In a fit of pique, Hitler declares war on the USA on 23 May 1941.
21 May 1941 as in OTL, a Spitfire reconnaissance aircraft photographs the German Battleship Bismarck in a Norwegian Fjord. In TTL, the Spitfire is shot down and the pilot is found to be wearing a US Naval uniform (as he was in OTL). In a fit of pique, Hitler declares war on the USA on 23 May 1941.
Roddoss72
Banned
Here are some butterflies
1, Stalingrad, Adolf Hitler keeps the Army Group South intact and decides that at the moment Stalingrad and to a lesser extent Astrakhan is more strategically important than splitting his forces into Army Group South and Army Group A and trying to gain the Baku oilfields whilst trying to take Stalingrad with an inferior army
2, Marshal Carl Mannerheim orders that his army will cross the Soviet-Finnish pre-war border and launch an attack on the northern sector of Leningrad, this is in co-ordination with an assault by the 16th and 18th armies
3, Adolf Hitler actually listens to his General and allowed them more independence to act as they saw fit, but Adolf Hitler actually retains the absolute right as Furher to approve of plans.
1, Stalingrad, Adolf Hitler keeps the Army Group South intact and decides that at the moment Stalingrad and to a lesser extent Astrakhan is more strategically important than splitting his forces into Army Group South and Army Group A and trying to gain the Baku oilfields whilst trying to take Stalingrad with an inferior army
2, Marshal Carl Mannerheim orders that his army will cross the Soviet-Finnish pre-war border and launch an attack on the northern sector of Leningrad, this is in co-ordination with an assault by the 16th and 18th armies
3, Adolf Hitler actually listens to his General and allowed them more independence to act as they saw fit, but Adolf Hitler actually retains the absolute right as Furher to approve of plans.
I'm sorry for resurrecting an old thread but I read it and I couldn't resist to posting some of my thoughts!
1. An obvious one; Spain entering the war military on the Axis side.
2. Axis invasion of India.
3. Argentina and Bolivia entering the war military on the Axis side.
4. Mexico and Brazil offering more military to the Allies side.
5. Allied (western contingent) invasion of Yugoslavia.
6. Turkey joining the war military on the Allies side.
7. Persia joining the war military on the Axis side.
8. Vichy France breaking off relations with Nazi Germany and invading Nazi-occupied France.
9. Full Italian invasion of Yugoslavia.
10. German Resistance proves to be a lot stronger and united in the fight to topple the Nazi regime.
11. The July 20th plot is successful.
12. Nazi Germany instigates and arms neo-Confederate and KKK members so that they can start a rebellion, keeping the USA occupied at home while Germany.
13. The Werwolf's actually make a stand.
14. A National Redoubt would actually occur towards the end of the war for Nazi Germany.
15. The Nero Decree goes into effect in Nazi Germany.
1. An obvious one; Spain entering the war military on the Axis side.
2. Axis invasion of India.
3. Argentina and Bolivia entering the war military on the Axis side.
4. Mexico and Brazil offering more military to the Allies side.
5. Allied (western contingent) invasion of Yugoslavia.
6. Turkey joining the war military on the Allies side.
7. Persia joining the war military on the Axis side.
8. Vichy France breaking off relations with Nazi Germany and invading Nazi-occupied France.
9. Full Italian invasion of Yugoslavia.
10. German Resistance proves to be a lot stronger and united in the fight to topple the Nazi regime.
11. The July 20th plot is successful.
12. Nazi Germany instigates and arms neo-Confederate and KKK members so that they can start a rebellion, keeping the USA occupied at home while Germany.
13. The Werwolf's actually make a stand.
14. A National Redoubt would actually occur towards the end of the war for Nazi Germany.
15. The Nero Decree goes into effect in Nazi Germany.
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For the East front:
For German:
1941
1) No attack at Yugoslavia and Greece
Concequences
Great Patriotick war began in Mai-more time for Germany before winter, but worse roads
2) Another Barbarossa
3) Stop of the Army group Central after Smolensk, as von Bock wanted.
Results-No german defeat in battle for Moscow.
4)Adolf Hitler didint demand of strict defence for german troops in winter 1941\42
5)Vyazma Peace
1942
1)attack to the Central part of russia(turning movement of Moscow)
2) 6th Army fall back from Stalingrad
1943
1)Manstein's counteroffencive is unsuccessful-no Kursk battle
2)Active defence
Another:
1))Germany didint declare war to USA
2) Hitler is killed by soviet divirsionary group.
For German:
1941
1) No attack at Yugoslavia and Greece
Concequences
Great Patriotick war began in Mai-more time for Germany before winter, but worse roads
2) Another Barbarossa
3) Stop of the Army group Central after Smolensk, as von Bock wanted.
Results-No german defeat in battle for Moscow.
4)Adolf Hitler didint demand of strict defence for german troops in winter 1941\42
5)Vyazma Peace
1942
1)attack to the Central part of russia(turning movement of Moscow)
2) 6th Army fall back from Stalingrad
1943
1)Manstein's counteroffencive is unsuccessful-no Kursk battle
2)Active defence
Another:
1))Germany didint declare war to USA
2) Hitler is killed by soviet divirsionary group.
The Marshall Plan was not all that much money. About 100 billion in today's dollar value.
European economy was completely trashed, US needed them to bounce back so they can import American goods. Besides if they didn't get back on their feet the Soviets would take advantage of the chaos.
It would be incomprehensible to not loan money to Europe.
A few obvious possible eastern butterflies
1. Japan agrees an alliance with German before September 1939 and declares war on Britain and France.
2. Japan declares war on Britain and France in February 1940 after Asama Maru incident (which could have been worse if Asama Maru refused to stop).
3. Germany only invades Belgium and Luxembourg in May 1940, so no Dutch oil embargo.
4. Japan sends troops to 'guard' the Dutch East Indies in June 1940
5. Japan attacks USSR in 1941
6. Japan decides to attack only Britain and the Dutch East Indies in 1941
And a few possibilities before September 1939
7. Oil discovered at Daqing in 1933
8. Chiang killed in Xian incident in 1936 (see http://www.geocities.com/misterralls/ishiwara.html.
9. Japan tries to avoid war with China in 1937
10. Japan mobilizes to try to conquer China in 1939-40 i.e. no movement of troops to Manchuria, reduced naval spending and more trucks.
1. Japan agrees an alliance with German before September 1939 and declares war on Britain and France.
2. Japan declares war on Britain and France in February 1940 after Asama Maru incident (which could have been worse if Asama Maru refused to stop).
3. Germany only invades Belgium and Luxembourg in May 1940, so no Dutch oil embargo.
4. Japan sends troops to 'guard' the Dutch East Indies in June 1940
5. Japan attacks USSR in 1941
6. Japan decides to attack only Britain and the Dutch East Indies in 1941
And a few possibilities before September 1939
7. Oil discovered at Daqing in 1933
8. Chiang killed in Xian incident in 1936 (see http://www.geocities.com/misterralls/ishiwara.html.
9. Japan tries to avoid war with China in 1937
10. Japan mobilizes to try to conquer China in 1939-40 i.e. no movement of troops to Manchuria, reduced naval spending and more trucks.