List butterflies from a Juarista defeat by the 2nd Mexican Empire in 1865

I'd like to analyze what butterflies could be created if the French intervention in Mexico had been successful and the Juaristas had been defeated some time before the black decree circa 1865 which thus leaves the 2nd Mexican Empire intact. Also lets say in TTL the US does not somehow try to overthrow the 2nd Empire immediately following the defeat of all the Confederate generals left after Lee's surrender.

I'd especially like to consider what would the initial and long term effects of this would be in Europe. As I understand it most on this site believe that a French success in Mexico would prevent the Franco-Prussian war by making Napoleon III's reaction to the Em's Telegram less aggressive. I'd like to discuss this further but I'd also like to consider how it could changes things such as the austro-prussian war before that since Maximilian I was from the ruling family in Austria and settling him as Mexico's ruler might affect the way the austro-prussian war is managed.

I have a specific POD in mind for how the Jauristas are defeated but I don't want to share that until some others have posted so as to not spoil any fresh ideas.
 
The 2 biggest issues are
1.) going to be the USA, no matter how the European powers do it, they are violating the Monroe Doctrine and the US is obligated to give them a hell of a time, and

2.) The Mexican people, politically he was in trouble (the Liberals HATED Maximilian, he quickly alienated the Conservatives/Aristocracy who brought him into power, by ironically, being very liberal in his ruling in accepting the Juarez reforms) so unless you change how he governs/replace him he has literally no support.

Sorry if you got nothing from that, my knowledge of this time period is kinda murky.:eek:
 
The 2 biggest issues are
1.) going to be the USA, no matter how the European powers do it, they are violating the Monroe Doctrine and the US is obligated to give them a hell of a time, and

2.) The Mexican people, politically he was in trouble (the Liberals HATED Maximilian, he quickly alienated the Conservatives/Aristocracy who brought him into power, by ironically, being very liberal in his ruling in accepting the Juarez reforms) so unless you change how he governs/replace him he has literally no support.

Sorry if you got nothing from that, my knowledge of this time period is kinda murky.:eek:
Yeah I already knew that, but thank you anyway.
 
Would Maximilian encourage European immigration? If so, since there wouldn't be a lot of French to be had, would he try to attract Germans and/or Austro-Hungarians? A bigger German community in Mexico might get interesting.

The situation would be strange for Britain. On the one hand, it gets the French out of their hair a bit. On the other hand - they were big proponents of the Monroe doctrine. How will London react to a de-facto French colony being set up in America?
 
No chance you butterfly the Franco Prussian war altogether - Old Otto was keen on getting this running - a way would have been found.

If Mexico could somehow be stabilized it might not be the target of US colonial agression as OTL (OK that was a bit agressive worded too)

A stronger MExico might alos mean the US had to keep a stronger army presence at the border (just in case) - this would mean the US IS faster becoming dominant as uit can react to military engagements with a larger experienced officer/NCO pool.

Mexico will still be mainly an American only affair and not influence European affairs much.

Alternatively the "French" sucess means that the Monroe doctrine is quite dead. But this might also lead to less US isolationuism and earlier "colonial" ambitions. (US West Africa? having a foothold in Liberia and good relations to Morocco - prevent the French takeover of Morocco)

The US might then be less inclined to help the entente and give more support to the CPs - at least put more pressure on the Brits because of the "illegal" blocade of Germany...
 
But this might also lead to less US isolationuism and earlier "colonial" ambitions. (US West Africa? having a foothold in Liberia and good relations to Morocco - prevent the French takeover of Morocco)
I like this:DFREE MOROCCO! What would the border look like?
 
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