Lions and Butterflies: The Rise of Rhodesia

[Askelion]

Hello Everyone!
After much work, and with help from the AH.com community at large, I've finally worked together my timeline for a surviving Rhodesia. This is my first true timeline and will continue until the modern day. At the conclusion of the proseless timeline, several stories told in the setting of the modern Rhodesian state will be presented to you.

In conclusion, I hope that all of you enjoy, and I encourage commentary.

Thanks everyone!

 

[Askelion]

Prologue: A Stumble in the Dark

The 18th of December in 1974 was an average day for Comissar Zhou De of the Peoples’ Liberation Army. But it can certainly be said that an average day for Zhou De was far from average. He was trekking in the African bush, a strange location for a Chinese officer, but he was there no less. As he walked carefully through the Mozambican countryside, he believed that he was beginning to understand Africa. His superiors had sent him along with a small support team to both equip and provide supervision to the Maoist ZANLA forces of Robert Mugabe and to provide some degree of coordination between them and the Mozambican FRELIMO movement. He knew that his enemy was Rhodesia, a small, wealthy rogue state bordering Mozambique, Botswana, and South Africa. He knew that the Rhodesians controlled a vital port city in Mozambique, and that the Rhodesians, if left alone, could rapidly modernize their aging forces. He knew, for some reason, that the USSR, and for a reason he didn’t yet understand, the US, were vying to oust the government of Ian Smith, and that he couldn’t allow either to claim the resources there. China was a growing power, and she needed to establish herself abroad.
Zhou De had been impressed so far with the conduct and reliability of the ZANLA fighters, fighting admittedly intimidating foes on a constant basis despite constant defeat. The same, however, could not be said of their leaders. Zhou De personally found Mugabe and his cohorts to be shady individuals. There was a grim aura of betrayal about the whole thing, and he was constantly reporting his dissatisfaction with his ‘allies’ to his commanders in Beijing. Beijing, too, was not on great terms with Mugabe. There were several times throughout China’s involvement in the Rhodesian Emergency at which factions of the Communist Party urged their comrades to abandon ZANLA, and Deng Xiaoping was rumored to have mentioned the possibility of aiding the Rhodesians. From Deng’s point of view, the Rhodesians would be hard pressed to turn to NATO after their betrayal and sanctions. In all of this, however, Zhou De found a ray of hope for PRC-ZANLA cooperation. He had often vouched for Josia Tongogara, a great warrior full of Charisma, to Beijing as a great option to lead Rhodesia after the fall of their enemies there. Zhou De had come to be close to Josia, and considered him a friend. As Zhou De mused on that December day he stumbled quietly upon the sounds of struggle and conflict. He wrapped his hands tighter around his Kalashnikov as he peered through the bush towards the base his friend called home. What he saw in that moment would change the world.

What Zhou De did not yet know was that his friend Tongogara had overheard his former ally Robert Mugabe discussing the future of Zimbabwe-the ZANLA term for Rhodesia-Mugabe designated that, eventually, ‘something’ would need to be done to deal with Josia. This lead to a grand argument between Tongogara and Mugabe, and the General stormed back to his base in Mozambique. Several hours later, Mugabe sent a kill team to eliminate Josia once and for all. Mugabe’s thugs had stormed the General’s quarters and had grabbed him while he was changing out of his uniform. They dragged the naked man out into the bush, the proper arrangements having been made to inform the ZANLA troops there that the General was less than loyal to the cause. Zhou De looked on in horror as the thugs worked to murder his strongest ally in the region. As Josia’s eyes rose, his arms tied behind his back, he saw Zhao De and Zhao De saw him. The executioner raised his gun to eliminate the interloper, but Zhao De’s veterancy and training assured that he killed his opponent first. The two other members of the kill team, previously ambling around the camp and assured that their friend would have no trouble killing an unarmed prisoner, returned to find their comrade dead and they prey gone. They quickly roused their allies and set out in search of their newfound enemies, claiming that Josia was a sympathizer who needed to be killed.

Zhou De ran with his ally as quickly as he could, towards the only place he never expected to go. Hours passed as the Rhodesian border neared, but the relief at seeing the relative safety of enemy territory evaporated as he heard a distinct rumble through the sky. It was a Rhodesian Lynx plane. And behind the Lynx always came Rhodesian troops. Zhou and Tongogara abruptly dropped to the earth as the Rhodesian fighter buzzed overhead. Zhou De heard the plane open fire some distance from his location, and as he and Josia turned about, they saw an unexpected godsend: the Rhodesian Lynx had engaged their pursuers, and their helicopters moved unflinchingly towards the remaining ZANLA troops. The two shared a sigh of relief; they were not the target. By the next morning, Zhou De approached the Rhodesian border at the city of Nyampanda, armed only with his friend and a white flag. He was immediately noticed by the Police garrison and taken into custody.

Once Zhou revealed that he was an Operations Chief for the PRC, he and Tongogara were given protection by the Rhodesians, and were soon transported to Salisbury. Once at the Rhodesian Capital, Zhou De made contact with his superiors in Beijing, and told his superiors of ZANLA’s betrayal. The Chinese were less than pleased. It wasn’t long before Mugabe was heard telling his disciples an intricate tale of how General Tongo had betrayed them all to the Rhodesians. A meeting was then arranged between the disheartened Josia and his former employer, Ian Smith, the Prime Minister of Rhodesia. The two talked for hours of compromise and redemption, Tongo going on about how he had been foolish to trust Mugabe and the other revolutionaries. He was soon joined in the discussion by Zhou De and his Superiors and an agreement was reached in a week’s time. Zhao De had explained to his leaders that the Peoples’ Republic simply had no other options. Either they would support Rhodesia, or the Americans or Soviets would end up dominating the region. And thus it was decided China would support Rhodesia with arms, vehicles, and equipment in exchange for trade rights in the future and the promise that General Tongo would play a major role in the reshaping of Rhodesia after the conclusion of the war. As the three parties departed, Zhou De wandered for a bit in a park. As he passed the palm trees and streetlights he looked to the rising sun in the distance and wondered what would become of his former enemies.
What Zhou De didn’t know was that his rescue of Josia Tongogara would change the region in such a massive way that the world itself would be drastically affected.

Rhodesia would live on.

 

[Askelion]

Timeline Segment: 1974-1990

· December 18, 1974: Josia Tongogara, Commander of ZANLA, is betrayed by his ally Robert Mugabe, leader of ZANLA’s political arm ZANU. He and his Chinese liason escape an assassination attempt, and reach Rhodesia safely. The two’s assistance leads to diplomatic negations between the PRC and Rhodesia. China is astonished and angered by Mugabe's betrayal.
· January 20, 1975:After the conclusion of over a week of talks, Prime Minister Ian Smith of Rhodesia and China reach an agreement. In exchange for Chinese arms, trade, vehicles, and equipment (as well as Tongo’s intelligence of ZANU and ZANLA), Rhodesia will enter trade and military agreements with the PRC after the war, and General Tongogara will play a major role in the reform of the Rhodesian government in the future. China ceases funding Mugabe and his ZANU, whilst ZANU publicly declares that General Tongo is a traitor to the cause.
· June 18, 1975: A reeling Mugabe, desperate for support after the loss of his Chinese funding and disappointed by his inability to break the Rhodesian military, launches a raid against a Rhodesian ‘Rest and Relaxation’ Camp. In the firefight, several US Intelligence officers are killed whilst undercover. The USSR secretly begins to supply Mugabe’s forces as well as their own Robert Mugabe.
· July 3, 1975: A failed Cuban assassination attempt on Ian Smith forces the Prime Minister into a coma, and he is declared unable to lead the government.
· December 24, 1975: Despite initial hesitation in supporting the Rhodesian state, the PRC and USA both begin to support the Rhodesian Government, now led (unofficially) by Smith’s Lieutenant, PK van der Byl. This agreement to stop Soviet power in the region is known as the Christmas Accord. Mao is initially hesitant, but agrees after further talks.
· February 20, 1976: After continued pressure from both the US and PRC, the Rhodesian government holds an emergency election for the post of Prime Minister. The Chinese and Americans force a ‘one person, one vote’ policy for both black and white Rhodesians in order to weaken their opponents’ position. Merely four days before the election, Van der Byl announces publicly the foundation of a new political party, dubbed the Rhodesian Eterna Party, composed of the former Rhodesian Front and UANC in the name of national solidarity. Mr. Van der Byl is chosen as Eterna’s candidate for Prime Minister.
· February 24, 1976: After a landslide victory, PK Van der Byl is sworn in as Rhodesia’s Prime Minister. The Chinese and Americans continue to increase funding to the Rhodesians, whilst Joshua Nkomo and Robert Mugabe receive funding from the USSR.
· September 13, 1976: After much negotiating and convincing, NATO begins to trade with Rhodesia, with the exception of Great Britain. Arms from both NATO and China flow into Rhodesia’s armories. And Prime Minister Van der Byl, more aggressive Smith, pressures his enemies in Zambia and Mozambique to cease their support of ZANLA and ZANU.
· September 17, 1976: Mozambican troops attack a Chinese plane disguised as a Rhodesian airliner, the PRC utilizes this event to declare war on Zambia and Mozambique. The US and NATO support the action and extend their condolences to China. An embarrassed USSR condemns the actions of their foolish allies.
· September 18, 1976-January 1, 1977: The Rhodesian Bush War continues for several more months, causing massive death tolls and destruction in the country. Prime Minister Van der Byl calls and wins three more elections for Prime Minister. The USSR, however pulls out its support from the failing rebellion in the country, and focuses instead on supporting its failing puppet state in Afghanistan. The USA follows suit to counter the Soviet threat. Only the PRC remains in Rhodesia.
· January 27, 1977: The forces of ZANU and ZAPU finally succumb to Sino-Rhodesian forces after a raid kills both Mugabe and Nkomo.
· February 23, 1977: After the conclusion of the Bush War, peace is declared, and the country begins an arduous reform and reconstruction process with Chinese support.
· July 4, 1977: PM Van der Byl launches a Chinese-assisted invasion of Zambia , citing the Zambian government’s support of terrorist organizations during the Bush War and former cultural and political ties between the two countries.
· October 12, 1978: Rhodesian forces are successful in their conquest of Zambia, and after an Annexation period fifteen months in length, Rhodesia and Zambia are once again united under one government. The country is renamed the Central African Federation of Rhodesia and the capitol of Salisbury is renamed Karanga. Tensions between Rhodesia and its neighbors continue to increase.
· December 1, 1978: The British South African Police are re-christened the ‘Federal Rhodesian Police Force’, and begin extensive operations in Zambia after an anti-government insurgency erupts there.
· December 15, 1978: Agents of the FRPF Special Branch discover a rebel weapons cache in central Zambia consisting of weapons of US and South African Origin. When questioned regarding the find, neither government admits to wrongdoing, claiming that their arms shipments had been raided by pirates. Rhodesian relations with the RSA and US begin to sour.
· February 3, 1979: Mozambique, unable to continue battling the combined forces of Rhodesia and China, surrenders. A swathe of land in the center of the country is ceded to Rhodesia, and the remainder is divided into the Democratic Republic of Mozambique (a rump government in the north) and the Republic of Zambezia in the south ( a Rhodesian puppet state in the south). The new Rhodesian territory becomes the province of Beira, joining Zimbabwe and Zambia as divisions of the Federation.
· July 2, 1979: A minor border dispute results in a skirmish between Rhodesia and South Africa, fueled by South Africa’s mediocre support of Rhodesia during the Bush War.
· October 18, 1979: The conflict between Apartheid South Africa and Rhodesia ends in an ambiguous peace. Neither side gains much from the conflict, but General Tongogara serves Rhodesia well and becomes an unlikely war hero.
· November 3, 1979: Prime Minister Van der Byl steps down from office, and an election is held for Prime Minister. The Rhodesian government, concerned over its lack of manpower and the tenuous position of demography in the country (in Zambia in particular) begins an international campaign to lure immigrants, promising citizenship and a government pension for a foreign man and family in exchange for ten years of government service. This results in a heightened trickle of immigrants to Rhodesia, primarily consisting of people from American, Asian, and western European States.
· December 1, 1979: Enoch Dumbutshena, having significantly marginalized his political views, is elected President of Rhodesia by a slim margin, and takes (largely ceremonial) power successfully as Rhodesia’s first black President. Peter Walls is elected Prime Minister by a wide margin (Rhodesia Eterna Party).
· December 10, 1979: Zaire, under President Joseph Mobutu, launches a surprise attack against Rhodesia in an attempt to seize the nation’s vast resources. China and France condemn the invasion, but no other countries respond.
· December 11, 1979: Rhodesia officially declares war, beginning the war which will eventually be known as the Hondo Satani (literally: War of the Devils).
· February 4, 1980: After a final sweeping offensive by the Rhodesians, Zaire is forced into a surrender. Winning the war leads to a stronger sense of unity in Rhodesia, while the defeat results in the collapse of Mobutu’s government. Relations between the US and Rhodesia sour farther.
· April 2, 1980: President Mobutu is assassinated along with several of his lieutenants, and Zaire erupts in civil war. Two major factions emerge: The People’s Revolutionary Party under Laurente- Désiré Kabila and a joint UNITA-ABAKO conservative movement.
· April 7, 1980: Agents of the Rhodesian CIO (Central Intelligence Organization) infiltrated undercover in the Republic of South Africa witness a South African nuclear bomb test. A furious Rhodesia petitions the PRC to help them develop a domestic nuclear weapons program.
· July 5, 1980: South African Intelligence agents discover several nuclear weapons in Rhodesia, and clamor to strengthen their stockpiles and developing a nuclear missile arsenal with US and Israeli aid.
· July 30, 1980: A low ranking MP from Rhodesia by the name of Robert Shona is assassinated by South African agents. Rhodesia responds with an SAS raid in which Nelson Mandela and several other leaders of the anti-government rebellion in South Africa are released from the prison at Robben Island.
· September 10, 1980: South Africa calls upon the world to discourage Rhodesian actions in the region, but none save the US are truly interested. Due to the Apartheid Regime and the close relationship between the PRC and Rhodesia, none come to the RSA’s aid.
· September 11, 1980: The Rhodesian Federal Security Forces launch a coordinated invasion of the RSA using an evolved variant of the anti-insurgent Fireforce tactics. The Rhodesian strategy revolves on the rapid utilization of heavy armored car units, Rhodesian Air Force paratroops, bombing runs, and rapid seizure of cities. In the meantime a raid by Rhodesian SAS Operators resulted in the destruction of 22 South African nuclear bombs.
· September 23, 1980: The Rhodesian invasion force begins to take heavy casualties due to South African Armor and Air Power. The Rhodesians begin to receive more modern equipment from China.
· October 2, 1980: Ian Smith awakes from his coma, and officially steps down from office into retirement.
· November 18, 1980: In the early morning, South Africa’s sole ICBM fails to launch due to design issues. As Rhodesian forces approach Pretoria, UN forces attempt to negotiate a ceasefire, but fail to resolve the situation. The First Battle of Pretoria begins, and rapidly deteriorates into a fruitless siege of the city and several rapid skirmishes in the suburbs and bush.
· November 28, 1980: South African forces successfully repel their Rhodesian opponents, and win the first battle of Pretoria. The South African counterattack is itself countered by the Rhodesians, and the RSF remain entrenched in the eastern regions of South Africa. Concurrently, the SADF faces a growing insurgency led primarily by Nelson Mandela.
· February 12, 1981: The war continues to drag on, and US threats to intervene are met with severe resistance from the USSR and PRC, who threaten to intervene in response.
· March 1, 1981: South African Prime Minister PW Botha is assassinated by the Rhodesian CIO. A separate raid by the RSAS successfully neutralizes South Africa’s only ICBM.
· March 2, 1981-March 2, 1984: For four years, the war rages without bearing fruit for either side.
· March 8, 1984: A South African assault drives the RSF back across the Rhodesian border, but the RSA is facing a swelling insurgency at home, with anti-apartheid and anti-war forces coagulating into a united force against the government.
· March 14, 1984: Just as the South Africans seize the Rhodesian city of Gwelo, their forces come under assault from the Rhodesian Air Force. The massive air battle which takes place there is dubbed the Battle of Gwelo, and will last for months.
· July 8, 1984: Rhodesian forces successfully launch a clandestine invasion into South Africa by way of Botswana, but the attack is repulsed, and Botswana becomes occupied by both parties, the Rhodesians in the north, and RSA in the south.
· July 20, 1984: The Battle of Gwelo ends in a Rhodesian victory with a massively depleted RSA air presence in the region. South African ground forces are repulsed south and east, and entrench themselves in the city of Fort Victoria. The Rhodesians besiege the area, and the Battle for Fort Victoria begins.
· September 3, 1984: To the surprise of the world, Nelson Mandela, assisted by the RSAS and CIO, successfully captures Pretoria, and officially claims control of the RSA. The brief South African Civil War begins. Malawi, having suffered an anti-war revolution, abandons its South African allies and supports Rhodesia.
· September 4, 1984-March 12, 1985: The South African Civil War/South African Revolution rages on alongside the conflict between Rhodesia and the RSA (dubbed by later scholars as the Great African Emergency). After four years of blood, the Apartheid government falls to Nelson Mandela, who makes a hasty ceasefire with the Rhodesians.
· May 31, 1985: Peace accords between Rhodesia, Malawi, Botswana, and South Africa are held at New Sarum Air Force Base in Rhodesia. The New Sarum Treaty is chaired by the PRC, USSR, and NATO on behalf of the UN, the results of the accords are as follows:
o Rhodesia shall annex Malawi as a fully privileged member state of the Central African Federation, restoring the previous union between Zimbabwe, Nyasaland, and Zambia.
o The Republic of South Africa shall re-organize along equal ethnic lines, and destroy the rules of Apartheid.
o The Republic of South Africa shall enter into a non-aggression pact with Rhodesia, to immediate effect and expiring in the year 2005.
o Botswana shall be paid collateral reparations by both South Africa and Rhodesia, in apology for any damages inflicted upon the neutral state during the course of the war.
· July 1, 1985: Nelson Mandela is elected President of South Africa by a landslide.
· October 12, 1985: Alec Smith, son of Ian Smith and leader of the new Rhodesian Reform Party (RRP), is elected Prime Minister of Rhodesia.
· October 14, 1985-January 6, 1990: Prime Minister Smith slowly begins the process of increasing black African power in the Federation, and does so in progressive and moderate steps.
· January 7, 1990: Prime Minister Smith steps down from office and mass election is called. The Government has been redesigned, and now houses a Parliament composed of 40 seats guaranteed to whites and 60 seats guaranteed to black Africans. Brigadier General Josia Tongogara, having served valiantly and successfully in several major conflicts, is elected Prime Minister of Rhodesia, becoming the first black man to achieve that position.

 

[TheMann]

The number of butterflies here is astounding, but I do admire the work put into it.

The first problem I can see is the US supporting Rhodesia. The US and UK are VERY close allies, and there is no way that Britain would accept the independence of the Rhodesians - and as such, neither would the US. I can't really see China doing it either, because ZANLA was engaging in a struggle for liberation which would be beneficial for China. They knew that Mugabe would always be a socialist - they knew Smith would always be a capitalist.

Problem number two is van der Byl. That guy was nuts, and not terribly bright for that matter. He was sacked from Smith's cabinet because he pissed off South Africa, which to Rhodesia at the time was very bad news. If Smith was to fall, his successor would likely be John Wrathall, not Ian Smith.

 

[MacCaulay]

Ek dink Suid Afrika mag doen better deen Rhodesia...


But this is really well written, and definitely one of the more entertaining TLs I've seen in a long time. Great work!

 

[Askelion]

Timeline Continued

· February 12, 1990: Tongogara begins his reign as an able, if paranoid, leader. He is extremely wary of the situation in Congo, and notes that the US and USSR have begun to increase their support of the two opposing factions. The conflict escalates, with large supplies of Soviet and American arms causing massive military and civilian casualties on both sides.
· February 25, 1990: Mohamed Siad Barre, leader of the NATO-aligned dictatorship in Somalia, is overthrown from power by a massive combination of rebel movements. The situation is blamed on Rhodesian and Chinese meddling in the region by the western media, and the American government begins to plan a military response to the situation in case of emergency.
· March 10, 1990: Rhodesia and China, concerned over the inactivity of the USSR in Africa and their growing tension with NATO, begin to supply the Somali rebels with equipment and training. Great Britain and other Commonwealth states in the region begin to provide clandestine assistance to the Counter-Revolutionaries, disappointed in the failure of the US to act.
· March 14, 1990: The US, France, and Britain propose sending a peacekeeping mission to Somalia, but they are vetoed by the USSR and China.
· April 21, 1990: After a Congolese Terrorist Group detonates a truck bomb in the small Rhodesian border city of Nchanga, the Rhodesian military prepares to respond.
· April 22, 1990: A new movement forms in southern and central Africa under a loose confederation of unsuccessfully revolutionaries, dubbed the South-Central Pan African Coalition (SOPAC) and is based out of the unstable and stateless Congo.
· May 5, 1990: A SOPAC supporter shoots South African President Nelson Mandela, seriously wounding him. Mandela, however, survives and remains in power.
· May 6-June 6, 1990: A series of brutal attacks and minor uprisings by SOPAC Militias throughout southern Africa become known to posterity as the African Terror. Hundreds die and thousands are injured in chemical, explosive, and gas attacks. Rhodesia leads a small coalition of states, many of them protectorates of Rhodesia and its allies, in embarking on a shadowy campaign against SOPAC.
· June 7, 1990: The Coalition, consisting of Rhodesia, South Africa, Zambezi, Mozambique, China, and Namibia, proves largely successful in its rapid anti-insurgency missions against SOPAC. On June 6, however, their morale suffers a nasty hit, however, when counter-revolutionaries seize back power in Somalia, reducing their power in the region.
· July 4, 1990: Rhodesian SAS operatives assassinate Somali Counter-Revolutionary President Barre, but two operators die in the process. Both corpses are repossessed by the SAS, but one of the extraction helicopters is shot down over Mogadishu. The wreckage is recovered by the Somali Army, and Somalia declares war on Rhodesia.
· July 5, 1990-October 8, 1990: The initial portion of the Somali-Rhodesian War is fast and impressive, with the modernized Rhodesian military winning a rapid and striking victory against Somali forces. President Barre is once again dethroned.
· October 9, 1990-December 13, 1995: The occupation of Somalia by Rhodesia creates a power vacuum in the state, and many revolutionary and rebel groups, including SOPAC, work to seize power. The Rhodesians attempt to install a democratic government, but every election is met by violence from losing parties. In the end, Sino-Rhodesian forces forge the Peoples’ Republic of Somalia, a Communist Single-Party State modeled after Deng Xiaoping’s China. At the conclusion of the war, the USSR is dead and Rhodesia is exhausted militarily and economically. Rhodesia begins to return to a peacetime economy under the continued leadership of Prime Minister Tongogara.

 

[Askelion]

The number of butterflies here is astounding, but I do admire the work put into it.

The first problem I can see is the US supporting Rhodesia. The US and UK are VERY close allies, and there is no way that Britain would accept the independence of the Rhodesians - and as such, neither would the US. I can't really see China doing it either, because ZANLA was engaging in a struggle for liberation which would be beneficial for China. They knew that Mugabe would always be a socialist - they knew Smith would always be a capitalist.

Problem number two is van der Byl. That guy was nuts, and not terribly bright for that matter. He was sacked from Smith's cabinet because he pissed off South Africa, which to Rhodesia at the time was very bad news. If Smith was to fall, his successor would likely be John Wrathall, not Ian Smith.

Thanks for the comments and support everyone!

As far as the US supporting Rhodesia, I probably shouldn't have used the word 'support'. It's more an attitude of: "we'll trade with these guys until the commies are gone".

And China, having lost their representatives in the region, is desperate to gain a foothold, lest they be outmaneuvred by the USSR and US. And as far as communism's concerned; the PRC under Xiaoping's influence was very pragmatic, and focused on forging strong alliances with high monetary profit rather than high ideological coagulation. As Xiaoping might have said, they modified their Communist Ideologies to include "Chinese Characteristics" of tolerance.

As far as our pal (snigger) VDB is concerned, I am not saying that the election was free, fair, legit, or anything else. All that I know is that I needed someone looney enough to invade everyone around him. I think that you'll agree that he's my man in that regard.

Anyway, thanks for the support! I hope to regularize my contributions (my schedule will be found on my sig as soon as I work it out).

 

[TheMann]

As far as the US supporting Rhodesia, I probably shouldn't have used the word 'support'. It's more an attitude of: "we'll trade with these guys until the commies are gone".

In most cases you'd probably have a point, but Rhodesia broke away from the UK against their will, and the UK didn't like it much. By late 1974, there is no way that Britain will tolerate any solution except majority rule - period. And the US will not risk its close relationship with the UK over a smallish state in southern Africa. The USA is out and gonna stay out, unless you manage to get a deal settled between the UK and Rhodesia.

And China, having lost their representatives in the region, is desperate to gain a foothold, lest they be outmaneuvred by the USSR and US. And as far as communism's concerned; the PRC under Xiaoping's influence was very pragmatic, and focused on forging strong alliances with high monetary profit rather than high ideological coagulation. As Xiaoping might have said, they modified their Communist Ideologies to include "Chinese Characteristics" of tolerance.

But Deng had internal problems up the wazoo until about 1983-84, and China simply wasn't going to start supporting a capitalist state at that time. They didn't begin experimenting with capitalism themselves until 1983. They supported ZANLA with guns just to piss off Moscow, but supporting a state such a long ways away - and landlocked at that, so goods going to Rhodesia would have to pass through South Africa or Mozambique - is a tall order. Supporting one that is so ideologically different than you - almost diametrically opposed - is another story. I just can't see any way China would back Rhodesia, even if Mugabe was stupid enough to burn that bridge.

As far as our pal (snigger) VDB is concerned, I am not saying that the election was free, fair, legit, or anything else. All that I know is that I needed someone looney enough to invade everyone around him. I think that you'll agree that he's my man in that regard.

OK, you got me on that one. van der Byl was a nutcase even by Rhodesian standards (But then again, he was an Afrikaner......subterfuge, perhaps?) and he is crazy enough to invade other countries.

 

[Askelion]

Attention!

Due to an upcoming family trip, temporary writer's block, and an inability to force myself to shove out poorly-planned out filler, Lions and Butterflies will be taking a short hiatus. Thanks for your patience and support. It will return on January 4th.

 

[Marius]

Ek dink Suid Afrika mag doen better deen Rhodesia...


But this is really well written, and definitely one of the more entertaining TLs I've seen in a long time. Great work!

Ek dink Suid-Afrika gaan beter doen as Rhodesia.

That's what you were trying to say

 

[Strategos' Risk]

This is a very fascinating timeline, and I eagerly await for its resumption on the 4th. As far as the PRC deal with, I'd personally just handwave it as one of those odd quirks of realpolitik that should be allowable in an AH if it helps to build the premise. Though does anyone else have any comments on its plausibility wrt Ian Smith's willingness to negotiate with the black population?

 

[TheMann]

This is a very fascinating timeline, and I eagerly await for its resumption on the 4th. As far as the PRC deal with, I'd personally just handwave it as one of those odd quirks of realpolitik that should be allowable in an AH if it helps to build the premise.

True, but I don't see what allies Smith would have had. He needed to get a deal with the UK - period. If he can get that, dealing with the USA and UK then becomes easy - particularly so once Thatcher and Reagan are in the picture.

Though does anyone else have any comments on its plausibility wrt Ian Smith's willingness to negotiate with the black population?

I don't think that's impossible. Smith admitted that majority rule was inevitable as early as 1975 IOTL, and Smith, while vocal of Mugabe, did stay in Zimbabwe, unlike the majority of his officials, who mostly bugged out for South Africa, Australia and the UK after Zimbabwe gained independence in 1980.

 

[terence]

A nice bit of fun. My reservations are the ability of Rhodesia to either have the manpower and infrastructure to occupy any neighbouring state without that State's approval and co-operation. You have to remember exactly how thin the competent manpower and equipment was. There is no way that the RAR or equivalent could have been expanded in just two years to form a military with the capabilities to occupy the neighbouring territories and politically it would be impossible without majority rule which obviates the whole TL. To invade and defeat the militaries of Moz. Zambia, Zaire, Malawi etc. is entirely credible as Mike Hoare proved in the '60s, but to hold on to them? As for attracting immigrants---would you fancy settling in Iraq or Bosnia now? I think that I would wait and see.
As for taking on the South Africa Defence Force of the late 1970s---FORGET IT! Much as I admired (and still do) the Rhodesian Forces of the time you are comparing the Lichtenstein Constabulary with the Wehrmacht.
While the SADF got a bloody nose in 1975 at Quifangondo, the reasons are clear--crappy, outdated artillery, no air defence and 53 SADF gunners vs. 1000 Cuban special forces. A better comparison are the various battles in 1987-1988 with 3000 SADF troops against 15,000-20,000 deployed Cubans plus Allies, Russian Generals and Mig 23 squadrons with 'Top-Gun' Russian and Cuban pilots.
As for Nukes! Will you guys please get real about nuclear weapons. Sure, South Africa made eight crude bombs (at a cost of R.80 million!)-but the whole point of it was an Israeli like Sampson Option. (1) They weren't for actual use and (2) They were only valuable when unacknowledged- which is why they were only made officially public after they were dismantled. EVERYONE knew about the Nukes in the 1980s, including the Western and Soviet-bloc governments--the coat-tails were dragged without any sublety often enough, but to make them you need a highly sophisticated industrial infrastructure, including a least one operating reactor---where is Rhodesia going to get that from? Easier to buy some bombs 'off the shelf', but where are the sellers?
Important pont. Rhodesia/Zim is a landlocked country. It really could not survive for ten minutes without South Africa. Anyone who points out that it could trade through Beira or LM has obviousy never been to those ports or tried to ship goods through there.

Rhodesia broke away from the UK against their will, and the UK didn't like it much. By late 1974, there is no way that Britain will tolerate any solution except majority rule - period. And the US will not risk its close relationship with the UK over a smallish state in southern Africa. The USA is out and gonna stay out, unless you manage to get a deal settled between the UK and Rhodesia.

That's 'bout right, unless both were distracted by something really nasty, like an extended Arab-Israeli conflict or an early Iran-Iraq puch-up, perhaps?

But Deng had internal problems up the wazoo until about 1983-84, and China simply wasn't going to start supporting a capitalist state at that time. They didn't begin experimenting with capitalism themselves until 1983. They supported ZANLA with guns just to piss off Moscow, but supporting a state such a long ways away - and landlocked at that, so goods going to Rhodesia would have to pass through South Africa or Mozambique - is a tall order. Supporting one that is so ideologically different than you - almost diametrically opposed - is another story. I just can't see any way China would back Rhodesia, even if Mugabe was stupid enough to burn that bridge.

Between 1974 and 1977, no one was really in control of China or, indeed, its foreign policy. (Even as late as 1979 the Chinese invasion of Vietnam was as much an extension of a feud between the Chinese General Staff and the Central Commitee ( or least between personalities thereof) as it was National policy-- so a maverick decision to support an 'class enemy' regime would still be on the cards. BUT, a far more credible Chinese influence would have been that of Taiwan. Mainland China had little worthwhile military equipment in the '70s save small arms, but Taiwan had everything that America had and in OTL lots of stuff DID come in via Taiwan or Taiwanese companies. Taiwan also had more money.

OK, you got me on that one. van der Byl was a nutcase even by Rhodesian standards (But then again, he was an Afrikaner......subterfuge, perhaps?) and he is crazy enough to invade other countries.

To call PK an Afrikaaner shows an absolutely crashing ignorance of Southern African culture and heritage. That's like calling Barak Obama a Kikuyu. PK came from Cape Aristocracy--his family were the original owners of Groote Schuur! He went to Bishops and Cambridge for Christ's sake!
However, he was a nutter.