Lion of the North (Sweden Discussion)

A simpler smaller way is to avoid the war against Russia, retain Finland (a far better long-term option than Norway), retain Swedish Pomerania etc and be in the 19th century in a position to affect various developments

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Pomerania and the other German holdings will put Sweden in conflict with Prussia sooner or later (as happened several times historically). If Norway can be acquired early enough and be incorporated as a part of the nation rather than a personal union partner, things can be different.

Trading Norway for the German holdings in a victorious 1660 peace could perhaps be an option, then Denmark gets the German headache.

The Russians will be wanting coastal access. The best option would perhaps be for them to go after Kurland, that would keep Poland and Russia, probably with the Ottomans as a triangular drama partner, at each others' throats for some time.
 
I don't think they coveted Livland. At last they showed no desire to fight for. AFAIK the Senate rejected the offer to join alliance against Sweden.

Even if the Poles did not attack, August's Saxonians did, and Russian armies also operated in Poland. Polish partisans were a constant nuisance to the plundering and pillaging Swedes - and a peace was signed with Stanislaw after he was elected King and Grand Duke - Sweden considered itself at war with Poland, even if Poland did not consider itself at war with Sweden.

August laid siege to Riga and intended to retake Livland for Poland to get prestige and wealth enough to centralise the Commonwealth much more.

Europe at the time was very much you have a centralised state - your own, or someone elses, and Poland had started to weight towards the latter. Even without August and the devastation of the Great Nordic War, Poland will have problems with land-hungry neighbours.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Pomerania and the other German holdings will put Sweden in conflict with Prussia sooner or later (as happened several times historically). If Norway can be acquired early enough and be incorporated as a part of the nation rather than a personal union partner, things can be different.

Trading Norway for the German holdings in a victorious 1660 peace could perhaps be an option, then Denmark gets the German headache.

Yes it wouldn't be a bad deal for Sweden it would close a potential front (Germany), while giving them the kind of territorium Sweden thrieved by having. Norway would become a westen Finland, a recrutation ground for the Swedish army, while the Danish focus would be forced south, but it come at the risk for Sweden that the Oldenburgs end up on the top in North Germany and become a really bad threat for Sweden.
 
A simpler smaller way is to avoid the war against Russia, retain Finland (a far better long-term option than Norway), retain Swedish Pomerania etc and be in the 19th century in a position to affect various developments
Is there a easy POD in the 16~1700's for Sweden to take Karilia and the Kola Peninsula.
This gives Sweden a better to Hold Eastern Border.
 
For a post-1800 world, perhaps a little bit, but before 1808, no-one waged war north of Lake Ladoga.

As for the Oldenburgs ending up on top in northern Germany, I think it is unlikely to happen. In the 1660-1720 timeframe, they will most likely focus north, try to regain Scania etc, as they did historically. After that, Prussia, Hannover and Saxony are better candidates, IMHO.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
For a post-1800 world, perhaps a little bit, but before 1808, no-one waged war north of Lake Ladoga.

As for the Oldenburgs ending up on top in northern Germany, I think it is unlikely to happen. In the 1660-1720 timeframe, they will most likely focus north, try to regain Scania etc, as they did historically. After that, Prussia, Hannover and Saxony are better candidates, IMHO.

Not really you forget in this scenario you have given them both Vorpommern, Wismar and the Biscopric of Bremen, together with fact that they're going to get D. of Oldenburg in a few years and they already have most of Holstein, and they're in a good position to revassalise their Gottorps cousins*, they are in a extreme good position for North German dominans especially in the existing power vacuum from the leaving Swedes, and that's without the fact that they also own the relative rich and soon to be very absolute Denmark and control the moneymaking machine which is Oeresund. Beside the attempts to regain the Skaaneland is a lot more unlikely with the more unstable position in North Germany and the stronger naval and more defensive position of Sweden with their ownership of Norway.
It quite likely that the Oldenburgs instead of the Hohenzollern will come to dominate North Germany.

*Something they succed at several times.
 
With Scania in Swedish hands, there's no Sound Toll - Denmark has lost its richest and most populous provinces as well as the toll.

Bremen, Werden and Pommerania always costed more than they yielded to the Swedish crown - and that is not even counting garrisons, war, etc, since they were thoroughly burned and pillaged several times during the 30 years war. They'll be a similar drain on the Danish coffers.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
With Scania in Swedish hands, there's no Sound Toll - Denmark has lost its richest and most populous provinces as well as the toll. .

Denmark got Sound toll until 1857 a 199 years after the loss of Scania, so it keep it in TTL too, simply because Denmark can close the Sound at Helsingoer, and use Storebaelt, beside while Scania was rich so were Zealand and East Jutland and Schleswig.

Bremen, Werden and Pommerania always costed more than they yielded to the Swedish crown - and that is not even counting garrisons, war, etc, since they were thoroughly burned and pillaged several times during the 30 years war. They'll be a similar drain on the Danish coffers.

Not really Denmark is in a much better position to use them thanks to them being closer to its Powercentre and already extensive possesion in Germany. Of course there will be a focus on repopulate them, which will likely result in more pro-Hugoenout policies, which will also have interesting effects in West Jutland. Swedens problem was it was spread thin, with a lot of enemies, and a strong native aristocracy and a weak Monarchy, the former isn't a problem for Denmark here, while Oldenburgs has fewer enemies than Sweden, especially with the weaker Gottorps (thanks to the Oldenburgs southen focus, plus the Hohenzollern isn't strong enough yet to take out the Oldenburgs), the complete paranoia the Oldenburg had to their native territories nobility would serve them well here and together with the absolute monarchism in Denmark they're in a rather strong position.
 
The Russians will be wanting coastal access. The best option would perhaps be for them to go after Kurland, that would keep Poland and Russia, probably with the Ottomans as a triangular drama partner, at each others' throats for some time.
They wanted not just coastal access but a port. Kurland had little value for them since they couldn't use its ports in decent way before railways.

Even if the Poles did not attack, August's Saxonians did, and Russian armies also operated in Poland. Polish partisans were a constant nuisance to the plundering and pillaging Swedes - and a peace was signed with Stanislaw after he was elected King and Grand Duke - Sweden considered itself at war with Poland, even if Poland did not consider itself at war with Sweden.
I think this is key point. Sweden wasted power to fight people, that didn't want to fight Sweden and let Russians to rebuild. Without August as the king of the Commonwealth, in such war they had good chance to win.
Europe at the time was very much you have a centralised state - your own, or someone elses, and Poland had started to weight towards the latter. Even without August and the devastation of the Great Nordic War, Poland will have problems with land-hungry neighbours.
Maybe, but in that case the Commonwealth had more chances to overcome such problems.
 
Given British distrust of Russia, can you feature an agreement with Sweden (controlling the Baltic States, Prussia, Schleswig-Holstein, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Kola, & Karelia) making a deal to guarantee resource access/low tariffs in exchange for mutual defense if Russia gets frisky?
 
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