Linguistic WI:What if the Spanish did not conquer the Philippines

What would be the Dominant Languages in the Philippines if the Exploration/Colonization period of South East Asia was cancelled, delayed or butterflied.

For Luzon, I think Kapampangan would be the most likely dominant because the area where they lived was the most destroyed/depopulated region in the Spanish conquest which led to Tagalog being dominant..

For Mindanao, I know Maguindanao will dominate due to it being the language of the people of Mindanao.

You people what do you think?
 
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Malay has a fair chance as becoming the local lingua franca (esp. if Bruneians are involved). Other than that, I don't really see a dominant language over the whole archipelago.
It probably boils down to the languages of the polities with the ability to remain paramount in the area and their religious affilition (I recall that Islam was making inroads at the time, which would be a further vehicle for Malay).
 
Malay has a fair chance as becoming the local lingua franca (esp. if Bruneians are involved). Other than that, I don't really see a dominant language over the whole archipelago.
It probably boils down to the languages of the polities with the ability to remain paramount in the area and their religious affilition (I recall that Islam was making inroads at the time, which would be a further vehicle for Malay).
yes, i think malay will be the linguafranca of the archipelago as a whole, however , the similarity of Kapampangan and the other plains languages of Luzon might lead to Luzon which will lead the people of Luzon to speak *Kapampangan, I used the term *Kapampangan because Kapampangan will merge with the other languages of the lowlands of Luzon which are similar to Kapampangan which leads to the creation of a new Language which in my TL is called as Irrayan, the similarity of *Kapampangan to Javanese and Malay might lead it to be the spoken language of almost all of Luzon.
 
The Dutch would've arrived from Indonesia and conquered the Philippines as part of the Dutch East Indies. The most dominant language would've been Old Malay, which would eventually become Bahasa Indonesia. The Philippines would become part of modern-day Indonesia.

The Dutch did try to invade the Philippines in 1646 (Battle of La Naval de Manila) but the Spanish soldiers and galleons repelled the invasion. But if the Spanish never colonised the Philippines, there would be no such thing as the Philippines, no Spanish galleons or soldiers to repel a Dutch invasion and it would've been colonised by the Dutch and became part of Indonesia.

As a Filipino myself, I would acknowledge that we owe our Filipino identity to Spanish colonisation, if we weren't colonised by Spain we would be Indonesians or a bunch of small Sultanates like Brunei. By the 19th century, the Filipino identity was created through the unification of indigenous peoples under Spanish rule, and the subsequent racism of the Spanish authorities which lead to the Philippine Revolution. The Philippines was created through the foundations of equality for races, freedom from the racial class system of the Spanish colonial administration, by nature the Filipino heritage is anti-racism. The Philippines was one of the earliest opponents against apartheid in South Africa as early as the 1960's.

¡Viva La Republica Filipina¡ ¡Viva La Liga Filipina!

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The Dutch would've arrived from Indonesia and conquered the Philippines as part of the Dutch East Indies. The most dominant language would've been Old Malay, which would eventually become Bahasa Indonesia. The Philippines would become part of modern-day Indonesia.

The Dutch did try to invade the Philippines in 1646 (Battle of La Naval de Manila) but the Spanish soldiers and galleons repelled the invasion. But if the Spanish never colonised the Philippines, there would be no such thing as the Philippines, no Spanish galleons or soldiers to repel a Dutch invasion and it would've been colonised by the Dutch and became part of Indonesia.

As a Filipino myself, I would acknowledge that we owe our Filipino identity to Spanish colonisation, if we weren't colonised by Spain we would be Indonesians or a bunch of small Sultanates like Brunei. By the 19th century, the Filipino identity was created through the unification of indigenous peoples under Spanish rule, and the subsequent racism of the Spanish authorities which lead to the Philippine Revolution. The Philippines was created through the foundations of equality for races, freedom from the racial class system of the Spanish colonial administration, by nature the Filipino heritage is anti-racism. The Philippines was one of the earliest opponents against apartheid in South Africa as early as the 1960's.

Before the Spanish came, the Philippines was on verge of Unification under the Bolkiahs since Luzon came under Bolkiah influence and Palawan and Sabah were under the Bruneians, had the Bruneians been lucky they would likely subjugate the rest of the OTL Philippine and Bornean states as well.

The Question is more of what will be the linguistic make up and the regional linguafrancas of the OTL Philippines in that scenario.
 
Depends on who conquers it, and yes, someone is going to, it could be a European language or it could be similar to OTL where a single native language is made the predominant language or it could be a regional language that's used/promoted by colonizers (similar to how Guarani was by Portuguese in early Brazil).
 
Depends on who conquers it, and yes, someone is going to, it could be a European language or it could be similar to OTL where a single native language is made the predominant language or it could be a regional language that's used/promoted by colonizers (similar to how Guarani was by Portuguese in early Brazil).
The Question is that would all of it be conquerable, more parts of it would likely pull a mindanao against the colonizers if the colonization happened late.
 
Before the Spanish came, the Philippines was on verge of Unification under the Bolkiahs since Luzon came under Bolkiah influence and Palawan and Sabah were under the Bruneians, had the Bruneians been lucky they would likely subjugate the rest of the OTL Philippine and Bornean states as well.

The Question is more of what will be the linguistic make up and the regional linguafrancas of the OTL Philippines in that scenario.

Yes, this is correct. The question however would be if who would win on Brunei vs Dutch since we know that Brunei is in decline unless you butterfly that decline in Brunei.

So in essence, if you have this kingdom survive until present day without any decline, it will cover all of Borneo with a possibility of controlling all of Taiwan and Philippines.

Once you defeat the Dutch, OTL Taiwan and OTL Philippines control will depend if Brunei wins vs Koxinga.

Defeating Koxinga is much a harder feat than defeating the Dutch for a non declining Brunei state.
 
Yes, this is correct. The question however would be if who would win on Brunei vs Dutch since we know that Brunei is in decline unless you butterfly that decline in Brunei.

So in essence, if you have this kingdom survive until present day without any decline, it will cover all of Borneo with a possibility of controlling all of Taiwan and Philippines.

Once you defeat the Dutch, OTL Taiwan and OTL Philippines control will depend if Brunei wins vs Koxinga.

Defeating Koxinga is much a harder feat than defeating the Dutch for a non declining Brunei state.

If Brunei survives even briefly and collapses I think Koxinga will be butterflied since the inflation caused by gold will not happen, especially Luzon is under the Solimanid Bolkiahs which would end up as a Japanese client state in the end - If Brunei is not in decline a war between Bolkiahs will happen and the ImJin war will happen with two theaters in Luzon against the Bolkiahs and in Korea against the Ming.

The only problem of the Bruneians in Luzon is its Suzerainty, the Japanese are also interested in getting that because they have ports there.
 
If Brunei survives even briefly and collapses I think Koxinga will be butterflied since the inflation caused by gold will not happen, especially Luzon is under the Solimanid Bolkiahs which would end up as a Japanese client state in the end - If Brunei is not in decline a war between Bolkiahs will happen and the ImJin war will happen with two theaters in Luzon against the Bolkiahs and in Korea against the Ming.

The only problem of the Bruneians in Luzon is its Suzerainty, the Japanese are also interested in getting that because they have ports there.

Within this time period, the Japanese are not even capable of launching a full scale invasion of Formosa or Luzon. In OTL, they are already having a hard time with Korea. You need for Japan to win there first which is already an impossibility because of the Mings. The Japanese navy is quite inferior compared to its neighbors. Their resources are not at par with the Mings. Nor do they have yet the technological superiority advantage they had in OTL 1890s over China.

It is also an impossibility that a non declining Brunei would even be a client state of Japan. Japan cant even make Korea its client state. How much more a non declining Brunei that can defeat both the Dutch and the Spanish?

Koxinga and the Mings are a different matter when it comes to Formosa and Luzon. The Mings have the resources and the fleet or sea lift capabilities to bring their power into Formosa and Luzon. Which is why they did invade both islands in OTL, succeeded in Formosa, failed in Luzon.

Fighting the Mings/Koxinga is a tall order in Formosa since the Ming logistics are much nearer than Brunei's. Even if you butterfly Koxinga, the Mings will still want Formosa. Luzon invasion has possibility of butterflying away though.
 
The Question is that would all of it be conquerable, more parts of it would likely pull a mindanao against the colonizers if the colonization happened late.

The Dutch conquered all of Indonesia (ok, so the last bits were'nt until the early 20th century, but they took most of it before then), which had similar social, political and technological levels, the British and French collectively conquered most of a continent (Africa).

Without the Philippines being actively armed and accepting of modern European military formations and strategies, they're not going to last.

That said, depending on the colonizing country the speed could be different, so for example Spain took along time to conquer the South since it had a large Empire elsewhere it was focused on and did'nt see it as something it needed to do til late, however a country more focused on the East Indies would conquer the entirety much sooner.
 
Within this time period, the Japanese are not even capable of launching a full scale invasion of Formosa or Luzon. In OTL, they are already having a hard time with Korea. You need for Japan to win there first which is already an impossibility because of the Mings. The Japanese navy is quite inferior compared to its neighbors. Their resources are not at par with the Mings. Nor do they have yet the technological superiority advantage they had in OTL 1890s over China.

It is also an impossibility that a non declining Brunei would even be a client state of Japan. Japan cant even make Korea its client state. How much more a non declining Brunei that can defeat both the Dutch and the Spanish?

Koxinga and the Mings are a different matter when it comes to Formosa and Luzon. The Mings have the resources and the fleet or sea lift capabilities to bring their power into Formosa and Luzon. Which is why they did invade both islands in OTL, succeeded in Formosa, failed in Luzon.

Fighting the Mings/Koxinga is a tall order in Formosa since the Ming logistics are much nearer than Brunei's. Even if you butterfly Koxinga, the Mings will still want Formosa. Luzon invasion has possibility of butterflying away though.

What if the Ming weren't driven out by the Qing from Mainland China ITTL, would this mean that there will be no threat to the Bruneian Empire?...

Would it pull a Siam, Meiji or later Crumble ala Majapahit?

The Dutch conquered all of Indonesia (ok, so the last bits were'nt until the early 20th century, but they took most of it before then), which had similar social, political and technological levels, the British and French collectively conquered most of a continent (Africa).

Without the Philippines being actively armed and accepting of modern European military formations and strategies, they're not going to last.

That said, depending on the colonizing country the speed could be different, so for example Spain took along time to conquer the South since it had a large Empire elsewhere it was focused on and did'nt see it as something it needed to do til late, however a country more focused on the East Indies would conquer the entirety much sooner.

But the Dutch rebelled from the Spanish AFTER the POD? not BEFORE the POD...that might be butterflied..
 
But the Dutch rebelled from the Spanish AFTER the POD? not BEFORE the POD...that might be butterflied..

I was just using the Dutch as an example, not saying they're the ones that would do it.

Overall there are only four European countries that could have colonized it (as opposed to gaining it as a prize of war later on from another European power), those being Spain, Portugal, England and France (the latter two would require PoD's making them more interested sooner), now the Spanish were OTL and probably would'nt deviate to much IATL, however the Portuguese, the first ones to explore and colonize the region IOTL, are pretty good candidates to conquer all of the Philippines sooner; the French and English, well it depends on the PoD(s) and development, so they could be anywhere between the two extremes of conquering it all early and not conquering it all until alte (if at all).
 
What if the Ming weren't driven out by the Qing from Mainland China ITTL, would this mean that there will be no threat to the Bruneian Empire?...

Would it pull a Siam, Meiji or later Crumble ala Majapahit?

But the Dutch rebelled from the Spanish AFTER the POD? not BEFORE the POD...that might be butterflied..

Regardless of who is the emperor China, Formosa is too close for them and there are too many Chinese by this time in Formosa. The expulsion of the Mings merely hastened Formosa's downfall. From a strategic point of view, Formosa is to China, what Kyushu or Korea is is to Japan, what Corregidor island is to Manila.

The only military way to repel any Chinese invasion is put more of resources and more people in Formosa than China which is an impossibility due to the fact that technology of the west has not surpassed China and the logistics base of China is nearer to Formosa than Borneo.

I can see a diplomatic way of retaining Formosa by Brunei cowtowing and giving tribute to the Emperor of China. So, it will totally depend on who is Sultan all the time considering this is ATL of a non declining Brunei with different Sultans from 1600-1850. Anything before 1850 is a must for cowtowing to China to retain Formosa.

@Iori
I also do not see the Portuguese have any better luck in a non declining Brunei. A non declining Brunei is a power one order of magnitude below China. In OTL, the only reason why Spain had any luck conquering Philippines was Brunei was in decline and not much resources to protect their Manila colonies.
 
Regardless of who is the emperor China, Formosa is too close for them and there are too many Chinese by this time in Formosa. The expulsion of the Mings merely hastened Formosa's downfall. From a strategic point of view, Formosa is to China, what Kyushu or Korea is is to Japan, what Corregidor island is to Manila.

The only military way to repel any Chinese invasion is put more of resources and more people in Formosa than China which is an impossibility due to the fact that technology of the west has not surpassed China and the logistics base of China is nearer to Formosa than Borneo.

I can see a diplomatic way of retaining Formosa by Brunei cowtowing and giving tribute to the Emperor of China. So, it will totally depend on who is Sultan all the time considering this is ATL of a non declining Brunei with different Sultans from 1600-1850. Anything before 1850 is a must for cowtowing to China to retain Formosa.

@Iori
I also do not see the Portuguese have any better luck in a non declining Brunei. A non declining Brunei is a power one order of magnitude below China. In OTL, the only reason why Spain had any luck conquering Philippines was Brunei was in decline and not much resources to protect their Manila colonies.
Actually, there is a way for Brunei not to decline - and that is to end the Family strife among the Bolkiahs before the Spanish arrived - I think if Suleiman killed Lakandula earlier the Bruneian Empire could still recover.
 
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