Lincoln survives to finish his second term

I tried to see when this was last done but to no avail. So presuming Lincoln survives the assassination attempt at Ford's Theater (if there is one), how does he finish out the second term? What effects does this have on Reconstruction and the post-war US as a whole?
 

Dialga

Banned
For one thing, it would be a gentler, less bitter Reconstruction. Lincoln would definitely get a firm grip on the Radicals and lessen their power.

On the other hand, we wouldn't have the martyr complex that grew around him that we had IOTL.
 
For one thing, we would be talking about Joe Johnston,s quasi-surrender rather than lee's. After Bentonville, Joe effectively said, "I dare you to run me down. Let's talk." He got generous terms, which were cancelled when
Lincoln was assassinated.
 
For one thing, we would be talking about Joe Johnston,s quasi-surrender rather than lee's. After Bentonville, Joe effectively said, "I dare you to run me down. Let's talk." He got generous terms, which were cancelled when
Lincoln was assassinated.


Would Lincoln have accepted them either? Earler on, he had emphasised to Grant that he kept all political decisions in his own hand.
 

Dialga

Banned
For one thing, we would be talking about Joe Johnston,s quasi-surrender rather than lee's. After Bentonville, Joe effectively said, "I dare you to run me down. Let's talk." He got generous terms, which were cancelled when
Lincoln was assassinated.

Well, Sherman was going over his head when he included all that political stuff in his surrender terms, so I think Lincoln would still have shot that part down anyway.
 
A lot of people think Lincoln would have been anti radical republican on all the reconstruction items. I disagree. Lincoln was a very good politician, unlike Johnson. He would not have fought on everything like Johnson did. Plus when he saw the south dragging their feet and the south terrorizing black american citizens with the klan etc he would have stepped up attempts to make the south behave. Lincoln had no problems forcing the south to stay in the Union, he would have had no problem making them behave afterwards.
 
You have to remember the South was treated very lightly in OTL so I don't know how much lighter it could have been. One person was executed, very little property was seized and pardons were freely given nor did it have to pay tribute. Compared to the vast, vast majority of failed rebellions in history the South was treated with kid gloves.
 
You have to remember the South was treated very lightly in OTL so I don't know how much lighter it could have been. One person was executed, very little property was seized and pardons were freely given nor did it have to pay tribute. Compared to the vast, vast majority of failed rebellions in history the South was treated with kid gloves.

Yeah, I'm amazed by all the people who talk about reconstruction like it was some kind of radical republican rampage. It was really as close to status quo ante bellum that the south could have gotten.
 
A lot of people think Lincoln would have been anti radical republican on all the reconstruction items. I disagree. Lincoln was a very good politician, unlike Johnson. He would not have fought on everything like Johnson did. Plus when he saw the south dragging their feet and the south terrorizing black american citizens with the klan etc he would have stepped up attempts to make the south behave. Lincoln had no problems forcing the south to stay in the Union, he would have had no problem making them behave afterwards.


Though of course Lincoln willl leave the White House in 1869 (there is no evidence that he ever considered a third terrm, even supposing he is physically up to it) so the KKK and similar organmisrtaions will be only just getting under way when he retires.

Also, his first priority has always been restoring the Union, which now means reconciling the defeated South. No doubt he'll try to do what he can for the freed Blacks, but that may not be a great deal.
 
I think the real question is whether the big plantations get broken up. IOTL, Andrew Johnson absolutely hated the big plantation owners and was expected to wreck unholy vengeance on them, but when they came begging for mercy, he enjoyed it so much that he let them off with very few losses. Keeping that economic power together meant they would recover their political dominance against those who were the natural allies of the Republicans - freed blacks and independent white farmer who owned their own land.

If Lincoln decides that most of the plantation system needs to be broken up, it will severely hurt the ability of the old elite to gain power. It will also turn many of those freed slaves into landowners.

Unlike Johnson, a prewar Democrat, Lincoln will also be very interested in building up the Republican Party in the South. A lot of his decisions will be influenced by that. In particular, I think he will do everything he can to support those southerners who supported the Union. People who lead anti-Confederate guerilla bands, served as officers in the Union army, or performed other services are going to be rewarded with good patronage jobs. He'll also make sure that any abuses that would turn away potential members of the Republican Party would be stopped so that Lincoln would be seen as someone who protects the South from legitimate problems.

I think it will also change the narrative of the Reconstruction years from "Radical Republicans want to destroy the South" (because that's what happens when Congress fights with Johnson) to "the old plantation elites destroyed the South".

I think this would make the Republican Party much stronger in the south with a more solid base. The economic power and cultural influence of their main enemy will be broken, and those of its southern base is greatly strengthened.
 

Dialga

Banned
So, tl;dr, keep Lincoln alive and you've effectively killed the Solid South. What effects would this have in the the Gilded Age South and beyond? Has Jim Crow effectively been butterflied, or will that still be in effect?

(As an aside, bear in mind the Sothern states IOTL put enough ex-Confederate generals in their governors' palaces post-Reconstruction to form the core of a small army...don't know whether that would happen ITTL.)
 
So, tl;dr, keep Lincoln alive and you've effectively killed the Solid South. What effects would this have in the the Gilded Age South and beyond? Has Jim Crow effectively been butterflied, or will that still be in effect?

(As an aside, bear in mind the Sothern states IOTL put enough ex-Confederate generals in their governors' palaces post-Reconstruction to form the core of a small army...don't know whether that would happen ITTL.)


No reason why it shouldn't. Lincoln would have no problem with it as long as the men concerned had reaccepted the Union and weren't looking for another secession. Similarly he's have little problem with old Whig colleagues like Alec Stephens returning to Congress on that basis. After all, that was what the war was all about - restoring the Union and making the South a loyal part of it again.
 
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A lot of people think Lincoln would have been anti radical republican on all the reconstruction items. I disagree. Lincoln was a very good politician, unlike Johnson. He would not have fought on everything like Johnson did. Plus when he saw the south dragging their feet and the south terrorizing black american citizens with the klan etc he would have stepped up attempts to make the south behave. Lincoln had no problems forcing the south to stay in the Union, he would have had no problem making them behave afterwards.


The Radicals, and later President Grant, spent a full decade trying to make the South "behave themselves" and got precisely nowhere.

Don't you think Lincoln was smart enough to refrain from embarking on a futile "fool's errand"?

I agree he'd be more flexible than Johnson, probably signing thew 1866 Civil Rights and Freedman's Bureau Bills. He would almost certainly go along with an Amendment repudiating the Confederate debt, and probably insist that if the South won't grant Blacks the vote they must accept a corresponding reduction in their Congressional (and hence Electoral College) representation, but I'd be surprised if he went much further.

After all, iirc he told his Cabinet that he wanted to get as much as possible done before Congress reassembled in December 1865. Would he have any reason to do this if he planned to ally with the Radicals?
 
In OTL the response of the Southern (at that time all white) electorate and the treatment of whiet unionists as well as former slaves outraged not only radicals but essentially all republicans

That was why Congress acted like it did

In otl Lincoln though no radical was a little a head of the mainstream.

He may well have acted as the radical congress did, but more effectively because exec and legislative power would clearly be togehter
 
In OTL the response of the Southern (at that time all white) electorate and the treatment of whiet unionists as well as former slaves outraged not only radicals but essentially all republicans

That was why Congress acted like it did

In otl Lincoln though no radical was a little a head of the mainstream.

He may well have acted as the radical congress did, but more effectively because exec and legislative power would clearly be togehter


Together to what effect though? I've already said that Lincoln would sign the Civil Rights and Freedmens Bureau Bills, rather than vetoing them as Johnson did. However, since both were later passed over Johnson's veto, even that only brings them into effect slightly sooner.

OTL, Radical Reconstruction got started in March 1867. Since the Black Codes were only enacted in late 1865, and the massacre in New Orleans was early 1866, Lincoln's support only starts it about a year earlier - hardly enough to make any dramatic difference to the curse of events.

I take your point about Lincoln being in the middle of the Republican Party. Notice, though, that Republicans soon lost interest in getting tough with the South. The political disabilities imposed by Sec 3 of the 14th Amendment could be lifted only by a two-thirds vote in both houses of Congress, yet by 1872, though both Houses were still solidly Republican, these disqualifications were lifted from all but a handful of ex-Rebs. Mainstream Republicans continued to pay lip service to the Freedmen's rights, but at the end of the day, reconciliation (ie between the white communities on both sides) was seen as a higher priority. And there is nothing in Lincoln's (thoroughly mainstream) record to suggest that he would not have shared this view. In any case, he will only be in the White House till 1869, after which he is merely a spectator, though a popular one.

Could I recommend William C Harris, Lincoln's Last Months and With Charity For all; Lincoln and the Restoration of the Union for some good discusssion of his attitudes at the end of the war?
 
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