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As the title suggests - let's say Lincoln loses a close one to McClellan in '64 and Republicans are in control of both houses. In the succeeding months Union armies score victories and Grant and Sherman push the issue to the point where the war is won (per OTL plans) before McClellan's inauguration. Assuming the Congressional Republicans basically give McClellan the obstruction/Johnson treatment, is Lincoln a lock for 1868 (if he wants it)?
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