Lincoln faces a much smaller confederacy

Lets say that the initial secession fever that grips the deep south after Lincoln's election isn't as strong and only South Carolina, and maybe one or two other states, and Georgia isn't one of them, have actually seceeded by the time Lincoln takes over.
My guess is in this scenario Lincoln will take a more Seward like approach and hope to wage an undeclared economic war, evacuating Fort Sumter so as not to reignite Southern passions, and just wait out events in the hope that unionists gains strength, if not at first in South Carolina, than for sure in the other seceeded states. With every passing day that goes by without some nefarious act on his part, Southern unionists might very well be strengthened and the gloom and doom southern extremists who stampeded the whole lower south in OTL will lose credibility. The only immediate down size that I can see for this approach from Lincoln's standpoint is that with each passing day of inactivity this mini-secession will grow more real, and take on a de facto sense of legality, if the unionists in these states can't take the political initiative.
 
So for how long could South Carolina survive on its own? Assuming the rest don't just stomp on it. Could it survive on its own? I though South Carolina was rather wealthy circa this period. Could an indeprndent SC be possible? Sorry I live in New Zealand but its a podsible scenario.
 
So for how long could South Carolina survive on its own? Assuming the rest don't just stomp on it. Could it survive on its own? I though South Carolina was rather wealthy circa this period. Could an indeprndent SC be possible? Sorry I live in New Zealand but its a podsible scenario.
No. It may have been rich, but the rest of the country could knock it down quickly. Assuming other states do not join in, SC would fall in as long as it took to march down to Charleston, via Columbia. At that point, SC is done for. However, after the US takes Charleston, I could see them executing leaders, in hopes of discouraging other states from ever doing the same thing. Ironically, that would probably encourage partisans.
 
Lets say that the initial secession fever that grips the deep south after Lincoln's election isn't as strong and only South Carolina, and maybe one or two other states, and Georgia isn't one of them, have actually seceeded by the time Lincoln takes over.
My guess is in this scenario Lincoln will take a more Seward like approach and hope to wage an undeclared economic war, evacuating Fort Sumter so as not to reignite Southern passions, and just wait out events in the hope that unionists gains strength, if not at first in South Carolina, than for sure in the other seceeded states. With every passing day that goes by without some nefarious act on his part, Southern unionists might very well be strengthened and the gloom and doom southern extremists who stampeded the whole lower south in OTL will lose credibility. The only immediate down size that I can see for this approach from Lincoln's standpoint is that with each passing day of inactivity this mini-secession will grow more real, and take on a de facto sense of legality, if the unionists in these states can't take the political initiative.

Why on Earth would he evacuate Fort Sumter. It seems to me that faced with lunatics, the last thing to do is cater to their delusions.

Retaining Federal property is not a nefarious act.
 
The idea of evacuation of Sumter would be to play for time because in this scenario Southern secessionists in other states are still strong and have only narrowly been defeated by unionists in many deep south states, and any fighting might push them to also secede. Lincoln would thus gain a fort and lose three or four states.
 
I don't understand why South Carolina could not be its own Republic. If the Sugar Islands of the Carribean can be independent, why can't the Cotton and Tobacco 'Island' of South Carolina make a go of it.

Of course if South Carolina is blockaded it would suffer, but a Naval Blockade on the Carolina Coast is an act of War. Something that Lincoln may try to avoid since he doesn't want to create a crisis that would allow the rest of the South to follow SC in its folly.

In other words Lincoln might try to resolve the situation politically. In that case SC might al least temporarily be its own Republic.
 
The idea of evacuation of Sumter would be to play for time because in this scenario Southern secessionists in other states are still strong and have only narrowly been defeated by unionists in many deep south states, and any fighting might push them to also secede. Lincoln would thus gain a fort and lose three or four states.

Because so many a fight has been won by surrendering?

I don't see the argument here that Sumter was critical for southern secessionists.

If anything, giving up Sumter would probably embolden and legitimize the secessionist cause, persuading other states that there was no risk or downside.
 
Top