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Had this idea cross my mind just now. Let's say Lincoln chooses not to attain higher office and stays in the congress rather than run for president. No lincoln douglas debates etc.

So in 1860 the Republicans run a Free Soiler person rather than a more nationalist like Lincoln. The south starts to secede and President Free Soiler takes a stance to the effect of "You are taking the blacks with you, good deal!". The abolitionist and nationalistic wings of the party are upset, but only a few southern states chose to leave, the deep south from Louisiana to North Carolina.

Then when the south moves on Fort Sumter President Free Soiler pulls the Federal troops out of all confederate garrisons. Does violence still happen beyond border scrape ups? The republican party implodes in civil war by 1862 mid term elections and democrats probably resume power.

What about Texas and Virginia, do they join the CSA or do they stay in the USA?

If there is no re-unification effort, I do foresee a massive problem with black refugees who start flooding across to the north and a stress point over returning of escaped slaves. But that would be up to the state departments to work out if there is no war.
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