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I guess this has been adressed but the search function is not working.
The scenario is that Moltke somehow manages to effectively crush the French in 1914 and Italy joins CP after the alt-Marne, thus forcing France to sue for peace, probably with Paris in German hands or hopelessly menaced.
Tannenberg goes more or less like OTL.
I suppose that at this point, the Entente would ask for terms, say by late November of 1914 or maybe December.
Two questions:
a)is this likely? Wouldn't Britain, Japan and possibly Russia go on fighting?
b)in the event of a general negotiated peace, would would the Triple Alliance reasonably get? My guess is:
Europe: Germany takes the part of Belgium east of the Moss, Belfort, the Longwy area, and maybe all of Lorraine.
Italy gets Nice and Corsica, maybe Savoy. Arrangement with Austria may lead to a cession of Trentino and some parts of Venezia Giulia, but almost surely not Trieste.
Austria occupies Montenegro and the northern half of Serbia, maybe the entire country.
Africa: Germany takes Belgian Congo, a sizable chunk of French Equatorial Africa if not it all, and some minor border areas at expense of French West Africa and maybe from British Gold Coast and Nigeria. Maybe also Tanaland and Uganda, but it is unlikely.
Italy gets Tunisia, Tibesti, Bourkou, and Djibouti. A favorable adjustment of the Lybian-Egyptian is almost sure. Possibly also Kassala, Jubaland and Somaliland, maybe Malta though it is unlikely.
Asia-Oceania: Japan gives back to Germany everything she has taken. Germany may go for Gilbert Islands, Australian New Guinea and Solomon Islands, maybe also Horn Islands and French Polynesia, but won't get it all. Britain may cede Weihaiwei to either Germany or Italy, more probably the former. Italy will get some concession from Britain or France in China.


I guess that Russia will be ousted from the Balkans and maybe suffer unfavorable border adjustments in Poland, but probably Germany and Austria won't be eager to annex the whole Poland. Bessarabia might go to Romania if it joins the CP, If the Ottomans join, Kars and Ardahanwould be theirs, and they may regain Cyprus and/or Kuwait.

Do you think it is reasonable? Is Britain losing too much?
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