Likely peace demands after early German victory (1914)

I guess this has been adressed but the search function is not working.
The scenario is that Moltke somehow manages to effectively crush the French in 1914 and Italy joins CP after the alt-Marne, thus forcing France to sue for peace, probably with Paris in German hands or hopelessly menaced.
Tannenberg goes more or less like OTL.
I suppose that at this point, the Entente would ask for terms, say by late November of 1914 or maybe December.
Two questions:
a)is this likely? Wouldn't Britain, Japan and possibly Russia go on fighting?
b)in the event of a general negotiated peace, would would the Triple Alliance reasonably get? My guess is:
Europe: Germany takes the part of Belgium east of the Moss, Belfort, the Longwy area, and maybe all of Lorraine.
Italy gets Nice and Corsica, maybe Savoy. Arrangement with Austria may lead to a cession of Trentino and some parts of Venezia Giulia, but almost surely not Trieste.
Austria occupies Montenegro and the northern half of Serbia, maybe the entire country.
Africa: Germany takes Belgian Congo, a sizable chunk of French Equatorial Africa if not it all, and some minor border areas at expense of French West Africa and maybe from British Gold Coast and Nigeria. Maybe also Tanaland and Uganda, but it is unlikely.
Italy gets Tunisia, Tibesti, Bourkou, and Djibouti. A favorable adjustment of the Lybian-Egyptian is almost sure. Possibly also Kassala, Jubaland and Somaliland, maybe Malta though it is unlikely.
Asia-Oceania: Japan gives back to Germany everything she has taken. Germany may go for Gilbert Islands, Australian New Guinea and Solomon Islands, maybe also Horn Islands and French Polynesia, but won't get it all. Britain may cede Weihaiwei to either Germany or Italy, more probably the former. Italy will get some concession from Britain or France in China.


I guess that Russia will be ousted from the Balkans and maybe suffer unfavorable border adjustments in Poland, but probably Germany and Austria won't be eager to annex the whole Poland. Bessarabia might go to Romania if it joins the CP, If the Ottomans join, Kars and Ardahanwould be theirs, and they may regain Cyprus and/or Kuwait.

Do you think it is reasonable? Is Britain losing too much?
 
I doubt that there will be major changes in the Western European borders, furthermore Italy would have to join the Central Powers, when they are successful, but I doubt that a successful Austria-Hungary is willing to give a inch of their territory to Italy.
 
I'm not sure that Japan would stop fighting just because Germany won a substantial victory in Europe.
 
I doubt that there will be major changes in the Western European borders, furthermore Italy would have to join the Central Powers, when they are successful, but I doubt that a successful Austria-Hungary is willing to give a inch of their territory to Italy.

It would be obliged to under the Triple Alliance treaty, if it annexes parts of the Balkans. But of course, it will not be willing.
 
The Italians are just going to remain neutral since they aren't going to do anything that may bring them into conflict with Britain. The Austrians will never give anything, and in 1914 they can certainly tell Berlin to 'stuff it' to any suggestions of them giving territory to Italy. Franz-Josef II won't allow that.

I would consider the Italians refusing to initially join the conflict that the Triple Alliance would be null and void regarding them.

There probably won't be a lot of demands in the eventuality of a early victory, especially just knocking out France. The British can block any attempts of the Germans gaining overseas territories. Exactly what can the Germans extract from the Japanese if the Japanese refuse to return to them any seized colonies?

Exactly how will the Germans make the British give them Malta? I think you are desperate here. The Germans can't make the British do anything except continue their blockade.
 
The Italians are just going to remain neutral since they aren't going to do anything that may bring them into conflict with Britain. The Austrians will never give anything, and in 1914 they can certainly tell Berlin to 'stuff it' to any suggestions of them giving territory to Italy. Franz-Josef II won't allow that.

I would consider the Italians refusing to initially join the conflict that the Triple Alliance would be null and void regarding them.

There probably won't be a lot of demands in the eventuality of a early victory, especially just knocking out France. The British can block any attempts of the Germans gaining overseas territories. Exactly what can the Germans extract from the Japanese if the Japanese refuse to return to them any seized colonies?

Exactly how will the Germans make the British give them Malta? I think you are desperate here. The Germans can't make the British do anything except continue their blockade.

With Italy neutral, France may choose to fight on even after Paris has fallen to the Germans. The Italian army would stretch the French too much and probably force them into surrender. Italy would be exposed to naval attacks by the combined French and British fleets, that the Italian fleet, even with Austrian help, are hardly going to withstand. This could be compensated by an accelerated French collapse.
Of course this would make Russia reconsider her situation. With France out, and after a defeat at Tannenberg, she will soon face the whole weight of the German army. Britain would be less affected. Depending upon how bad the Entente is defeated in the West, she may face multuple choices. If the BEF is defeated on the fields AND the Germans take the Channel ports, London may see no point at all in continuing the war, but probably would not renounce any territory at all.

The Japan thing is rather interesting. How likely would it be that Britain and Japan stand fighting alone? Or only Japan? And how would a Japanese-german war come out? I concur that there's not much that Germany can do to recover Pacific colonies if Japan fights on, without allies and bases in the area. OTOH, I hardly see William simply saying "fuck it" and let the Japanese keep those places. IMO, there are two things that Germany could conceivably do, but neither is very likely:
a) Force France to give up Indochina, and either using it as a forward base against Japan or trading it (or a part of it) with the seized German colonies.
b) Offer a VERY lenient peace to Russia, maybe even one allowing a rump Serbia to survive, for help against Japan.

Or course both options, that seem far-fetched in their own right, are vaguely possible ONLY if Britain is out of the picture.
Otherwise, the war is not going to finish anytime soon, and the main belligerents would be once again in that bothering lion-whale situation. In THIS scenario, Italy could be a weak spot for the CP because of her coastal development, though with France knocked out the Italian army is free for coastal defense.
 
Here is the Septemberprogramm, that stated the overall German war aims in September 1914 as viewed by Bethmann-Hollweg's offices.
It's not like they seem anywhere closer to something the rest of Europe would be willing to accept.
The stress Germany puts over controlling the North Sea coastline and ports just front of England seems made on purpose to get Britain keeping on the fight for long. German garrisons in such places as Calais, Boulogne, Dunkirk and Antwerp are not something Britain would be willing to accept in any case.
Plans about Russia are impressively vague, but they interestingly seem to imply an independent Poland, which is a weird stance from a country with its own troublesome Polish minority, and long tradition of alliance with Russia to deal with the Poles. The program generally hints at carving out other places from Russia. If Germany is will to get a Best-Litovsk-esque peace this soon, the war will be long. Russia might choose to surrender Poland after a defeat or two, but there is no way she will renounce more stuff this early, not without a bitter fight. Would Germany settle for less?
 
Here is the Septemberprogramm, that stated the overall German war aims in September 1914 as viewed by Bethmann-Hollweg's offices.
It's not like they seem anywhere closer to something the rest of Europe would be willing to accept.
The stress Germany puts over controlling the North Sea coastline and ports just front of England seems made on purpose to get Britain keeping on the fight for long. German garrisons in such places as Calais, Boulogne, Dunkirk and Antwerp are not something Britain would be willing to accept in any case.
Plans about Russia are impressively vague, but they interestingly seem to imply an independent Poland, which is a weird stance from a country with its own troublesome Polish minority, and long tradition of alliance with Russia to deal with the Poles. The program generally hints at carving out other places from Russia. If Germany is will to get a Best-Litovsk-esque peace this soon, the war will be long. Russia might choose to surrender Poland after a defeat or two, but there is no way she will renounce more stuff this early, not without a bitter fight. Would Germany settle for less?

Re: the Russians;

The Germans would most likely settle for just an independent Poland. I doubt the German upper class wants to risk a long war, and the Ukraine and the Baltics just aren't worth the extra years of war necessary to gain them.

In the Spetemberprogramm, the Germans would most likely not get the French coastal strip, and they may not be able to completely economically dominate France afterwards, but I see no reason why the rest of it can't be implemented. In Africa, the Germans will likely take Belgian and French Congo, and get the rest of their African colonies back, while accepting the loss of their Asian colonies.
 
Re: the Russians;

The Germans would most likely settle for just an independent Poland. I doubt the German upper class wants to risk a long war, and the Ukraine and the Baltics just aren't worth the extra years of war necessary to gain them.

In the Spetemberprogramm, the Germans would most likely not get the French coastal strip, and they may not be able to completely economically dominate France afterwards, but I see no reason why the rest of it can't be implemented. In Africa, the Germans will likely take Belgian and French Congo, and get the rest of their African colonies back, while accepting the loss of their Asian colonies.

The coastal strip, bot in france and Belgium, is the real big problem. Britain is not really caring about Germany getting Longwy, Briey, Belfort, Liege or even Nancy for that matter, but is going to be adamant about Dunkirk or Antwerp. Briey, Longwy, Luxemburg, Arlon and Belfort, and most likely also Liege and maybe Nancy, are going to be German, little doubt abou it. France would have a big grudge about it, but she has lost badly after all, and she had a bigger grudge already.
I don't see Germany giving up so easily about the Pacific. William was almost obsessed about the "yellow peril" thing and wouldn't be happy at a vitorious Germany being defeated by Japan. How likely would be a understanding with Russia about it? Something like, "OK, you'll keep Poland and whatever you can get from Japan, and let's teach those yellow monkey the truths about the white's man burden"? Or, how likely could be a German-US alliance against Japan (not very much I guess)?
Another thing is that a complete Japanese takeover would mean that the Japanese take also German New Guinea. How unhappy could be Australian public about it? In general, who, in 1914, would like to see Japan controlling all the former german colonies in the Pacific area?

Everything happenning in the colonies is going to depend on what britain does, that turn depends on how reasonable the Germans prove to be.
 
The coastal strip, bot in france and Belgium, is the real big problem. Britain is not really caring about Germany getting Longwy, Briey, Belfort, Liege or even Nancy for that matter, but is going to be adamant about Dunkirk or Antwerp. Briey, Longwy, Luxemburg, Arlon and Belfort, and most likely also Liege and maybe Nancy, are going to be German, little doubt abou it. France would have a big grudge about it, but she has lost badly after all, and she had a bigger grudge already.
I don't see Germany giving up so easily about the Pacific. William was almost obsessed about the "yellow peril" thing and wouldn't be happy at a vitorious Germany being defeated by Japan. How likely would be a understanding with Russia about it? Something like, "OK, you'll keep Poland and whatever you can get from Japan, and let's teach those yellow monkey the truths about the white's man burden"? Or, how likely could be a German-US alliance against Japan (not very much I guess)?
Another thing is that a complete Japanese takeover would mean that the Japanese take also German New Guinea. How unhappy could be Australian public about it? In general, who, in 1914, would like to see Japan controlling all the former german colonies in the Pacific area?

Everything happenning in the colonies is going to depend on what britain does, that turn depends on how reasonable the Germans prove to be.

I was thinking something along the lines of the OTL split of the German Pacific colonies, with Japan getting everything above the Equator and Britain getting everything south of it. The Kaiser won't like it, but he won't be able to do anything about it. I doubt the Russians would like to team up immediately after the end of hostilities with their enemies just so the Germans can get their Pacific colonies back. The HSF is also too short-ranged to reach the Far East without any coaling stations along the way, and the British certainly aren't going to be supplying any. Germany accepting the loss of their Pacific colonies in exchange for getting most of the African colonies back seems to be the only reasonable solution.

In a few years after everyone has recovered, this seems like right up the Kaiser's alley. I imagine the Czar would want to have some victorious war to back up his regime, since he's likely facing unrest. How better than to get revenge on an old foe with none of the risks of a full-scale European conflict. A few more years also gives time for the Anglo-Japanese alliance to lapse and for Germany to build the infrastructure to deploy a serious fleet to the Far East.
 
I was thinking something along the lines of the OTL split of the German Pacific colonies, with Japan getting everything above the Equator and Britain getting everything south of it. The Kaiser won't like it, but he won't be able to do anything about it. I doubt the Russians would like to team up immediately after the end of hostilities with their enemies just so the Germans can get their Pacific colonies back. The HSF is also too short-ranged to reach the Far East without any coaling stations along the way, and the British certainly aren't going to be supplying any. Germany accepting the loss of their Pacific colonies in exchange for getting most of the African colonies back seems to be the only reasonable solution.

In a few years after everyone has recovered, this seems like right up the Kaiser's alley. I imagine the Czar would want to have some victorious war to back up his regime, since he's likely facing unrest. How better than to get revenge on an old foe with none of the risks of a full-scale European conflict. A few more years also gives time for the Anglo-Japanese alliance to lapse and for Germany to build the infrastructure to deploy a serious fleet to the Far East.

It makes sense. So the British Empire, in its Australian incarnation, will be actually gain something out of a "lost" war? Maybe they could retain something in the Pacific, from the Australian sector maybe?
In theory, Germany should be more than happy to exchange almost worthless pacific atholls for their cherished project Mittelafrika. But there is all the Weltpolitik stuff so that they likely felt the need to keep a presence in the area. I guess that things can be arranged in a satisfactory way if both Britain and Germany have a sudden attack of sense, which is the unlikeliest thing to happen in WWI-related stuff though.
So I'd expect Germany winning the war, at the cost of some minor colonies. Considere how early those area fell, Germany can at most hope that Britain will give something back. (Australians will go berserk a this).
 
NZ took Western Samoa and we would also like to keep it too I imagine, as we did keep it IOTL till the 1960s or so

True. Probably Germany won't give a damn about Samoa at this point. They may find more sensible do some trick in the peace treaty to make it look they "sell" the place to NZ. NZ will pay some amount of money to be agrred uopn, probably very low.
There may be interesting butterflies if the Aussies and New Zealanders feel like they have "won" the war while the British Empire as a whole "lost" it (I'm envisioning a scenario where the BEF in actually defeated on the battlefiel, though not completely crushed.)
 
Italy

Since the OP's post has Italy join the Central Powers it seems odd to ignore it and bang one's own drum. Vienna offered them territorial adjustments under German pressure so they would definitely get those, anything else depends on their force of arms, but a 1914 victory would mean they don't get too far, and maybe having Savoie and Nice retroceded to them is the most they could get, apart from the kudos of victory. Italy would also ensure that Montenegro remains independent, though might compromise on having Nicholas abdicate and one of his sons succeed him

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
True. Probably Germany won't give a damn about Samoa at this point. They may find more sensible do some trick in the peace treaty to make it look they "sell" the place to NZ. NZ will pay some amount of money to be agrred uopn, probably very low.

Yes, after all don't forget that when the USA defeated Mexico they then PAID them for the honour of annexing their territory

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

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Most likely:
Italy get some concessions from Austria (Trento perhaps?), and Nice and Savoie.
France lose some colonies to Germany and Italy
Northern Serbia occupies and annexed to Austria- Hungary. Montenegro occupies by Austria- Hungary for a while, but get to keep her independence after a deal between Vienna and Rome. Montenegro fall into the Italian sphere of interest.
White Peace with Britain and Japan
Luxemburg annexed to Germany
Parts of Belgium annexed to Germany
Belgium split in Flandern and Wallonia, both in Germany's sphere of interest.
A polish vassal state created from Russian Poland.
 
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