Furthermore @CountDVB, after TR's death FDR runs for Governor of New York and defeats Al Smith in 1924. Instead of Lowden, Vice-President Warren Harding becomes President upon Roosevelt's death. He carries over TR's advisers until 1925, when he fires them and replaces the old Cabinet with crooked cronies. By 1928, Harding is unpopular as numerous scandals have been leaked by the press. Governor Franklin Roosevelt decides to challenge Harding for the Presidential nomination. While FDR wins in the primaries, Harding narrowly wins at the convention.

Here is where the third party issue comes in. FDR decides to repeat Cousin Teddy's 1912 move and he runs as a Progressive in the general election, carrying many states. But unlike TR, FDR's party isn't just the liberal wing of the GOP. A former Democrat, FDR uses his charm and political influence to craft a bipartisan Progressive ticket with a Democratic VP. The duo takes votes from both Democrats and Republicans, but ultimately the Democratic candidate Newton Baker narrowly wins the election with President Harding coming in third place.

During the Great Depression, the Progressives gain seats in Congress and in state legislatures nationwide. Governor Roosevelt, winning a third non-consecutive term to the Governorship in 1930 (back then Governors served for two years, and FDR would need to vacate the governor's mansion to run for President) runs for President again in 1932. He defeats the now largely conservative Republicans, and Democratic President Baker who is widely condemned for not having done enough to alleviate the Depression. By 1936, the Republicans and Democrats consolidate themselves into the Conservative Party to oppose the "socialist" FDR, while Deep South reactionaries and segregationists form a third party lead by Huey Long.

29. Theodore Roosevelt (1921-1923), R-NY
30. Warren G. Harding (1923-1929), R-OH

31. Newton Baker (1929-1933), D-OH
32. Franklin D. Roosevelt (1933-1945), P-NY
33. Henry A. Wallace (1945-1949), P-IA

34. Dwight D. Eisenhower (1949-1957), C-PA

While the Progressive Party would definitely see some progressives head there, I don't think some would fully leave the party. The void may be filled by some of the socialists and so on who see Roosevelt and his new party as an opportunity of sorts to try and get mroe done there. I am thinking Republicans and Democrats do stay around for a while though I do see the Democrats approaching a split point with a potential Kennedy thing.
 
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