Likelihood of any given President being assassinated? (US)

Says it on the tin. How likely is it that any given President is assassinated?

To date, four sitting presidents have been successfully assassinated and one has been injured, in addition to Teddy being a former president at the time.

There are of course conspiracy theories about the deaths of incumbent presidents, namely Harding and Taylor being assassinated but let’s not dive into those.

When I say any given President I mean an “average” President, if the word can ever be used for such a figure.

Is it more or less likely that a moderate President is assassinated compared to an ideological hard winger? Are there certain features or characteristics that make some more prone than others to fatal harm?
 

Philip

Donor
To date, four sitting presidents have been successfully assassinated and one has been injured, in addition to Teddy being a former president

You're skipping many failed attempts.

Is it more or less likely that a moderate President is assassinated compared to an ideological hard winger?

Many would-be assassins are not motivated by politics, Hinckley being just one example. For others, it's sometimes hard to determine how much politics were involved. Was Squeaky politically motivated? Was Ford a hard-liner? JFK? FDR?

I think the answer is the president is a target by virtue of being being president, and assassins see the world through their own eyes.
 
You're skipping many failed attempts.



Many would-be assassins are not motivated by politics, Hinckley being just one example. For others, it's sometimes hard to determine how much politics were involved. Was Squeaky politically motivated? Was Ford a hard-liner? JFK? FDR?

I think the answer is the president is a target by virtue of being being president, and assassins see the world through their own eyes.

Cheers mate. That helps quite a bit actually
 
I have read that the main fear that the Secret Service has about the possibility of assassinations of the President is from someone who is willing to die in the attempt.
A rational person who wants to kill the President and escape successfully will find in their planning that it is nearly impossible to do so and will give up.
President Kennedy assassination was basically a moment of opportunity for Lee Harvey Oswald because the route of the motorcade passed directly by the Texas Schoolbook Depository where he worked and the route had be publicized before hand.
Also the President was riding in an open top convertible at a slow speed, things that the Secret Service will not allow anymore.
 

Kaze

Banned
All it takes it the wrong individual, the right time, a grudge, desire to become famous, patriotism, nationalism, "xyz on the TV / media / Radio is sending me secret messages to do this thing, an if I do it, xyz will love me", idealism or the lack there of, the right place, and lots of bad / good luck. Most assassinations are just that a bunch of lucky and unlucky circumstances - a bomb thrown too short or long sends a few horsemen to the hospital, the concerned pregnant wife that wanted to thank the horsemen, the Archduke and his car getting lost on the way to the hospital, the failed drunken assassin leaving his bar at the right time, the fact the assassin was plastered drunk and still was able to make the target, and once the shot fired everything changed.

I could imagine a time where someone as beloved as George Washington might have an assassin make an attempt - what would happen to the assassin after the attempt on the other hand would not be pretty - he would be torn limb from limb, he would be killed on the spot - and historians would spend lifetimes trying to figure out why, how, motivation, and what would happen if the assassin was successful.

The problem is post Kennedy, making the attempt gets harder with the actions of Secret Service - case in point John Hinckley Jr was a bunch of lucky / unlucky circumstances happened. If the Secret Service was just a second earlier (or later) the shooter might not get the shot off but if the secret service is a second shorter (or earlier) the country mourns a president, the Secret Service acted at the right time and at the right place to stop the assassin and save the president but loosing one of their membership in doing so.
 
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