Likelihood of a British victory

samcster94

Banned
British victory threads of the ARW are common, but mine is different. What is the most likely point for the British to win. The most obvious is early on, given the British had a huge advantage they blundered with. Even with the French as an enemy on equal footing, they still generally won. A victory late in the war, wile harder to achieve is actually possible. What can lead to any of these outcomes?
 
British victory threads of the ARW are common, but mine is different. What is the most likely point for the British to win. The most obvious is early on, given the British had a huge advantage they blundered with. Even with the French as an enemy on equal footing, they still generally won. A victory late in the war, wile harder to achieve is actually possible. What can lead to any of these outcomes?

Not my interest actually but... I guess there is a guarantee victory if there is no Franco-Spanish intervention. It will take some time but the British are likely to overcome the rebels. Punish the rebel leaders like Washington by deporting him to Australia. Any lower rebel leaders forgiven and allow representatives from the 13 colonies. Like a dominion.

To get France out of the war promise them something if they don't bother. Like two, three Caribbean islands.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
If Washington's army had been goggled up when it crossed the Delaware River in December of 1776 (and that it wasn't is little short of a miracle), the Revolution would have collapsed.
 
If Washington's army had been goggled up when it crossed the Delaware River in December of 1776 (and that it wasn't is little short of a miracle), the Revolution would have collapsed.

No. I reckon the fighting would have continued until 1777. Once the main rebel formations are defeated it would turn into something like the Partisan-phase of the Second Boer War. After all American Rangers carried on fighting the rebels two years after Yorktown, when both sides knew the Motherland had been defeated.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/posts/12243535
 
I'll admit I don't know much about the Revolutionary war (LOL I'm American and know more about European history than my own country. Kinda sad) but what about the Saratoga campaign? The British defeat there is what ultimately triggered French recognition of the United States, the subsequent Franco-American alliance and ultimately the loss of the Revolutionary war. So if the British win the campaign (or Battle not sure which is better) then the American cause is likely to either collapse or begin to collapse; France isn't going to get involved on the side of a losing power.
 
France staying out would be the safest bet, although even with French intervention the British could still have pulled a victory of sorts. IOTL even with French support the rebels were practically bankrupt by the end of the war, so if (say) Cornwallis' army is successfully evacuated from Yorktown and the British are able to keep up the war another year or so, the rebels might well run out of money and be forced to the negotiating table. Of course, any such peace is likely to be a compromise in which the British cede a large measure of autonomy to the colonies, so TTL is might still be considered a (partial) rebel victory, but compared to OTL it would still count as a British success.
 
...British are able to keep up the war another year or so, the rebels might well run out of money and be forced to the negotiating table. Of course, any such peace is likely to be a compromise in which the British cede a large measure of autonomy to the colonies, so TTL is might still be considered a (partial) rebel victory, but compared to OTL it would still count as a British success.

I think because the war had been too bitter, too long, with the Four Horsemen making 50,000 dead (multiply by 2x or 3x for wounded) - the motherland defenceless to French invasion in 1779 - that their was no space for the opposing and losing rebels to be accommodated with more autonomy in the newly recovered BNA. I think Ben Franklin chose the Grand Union Flag/British East India Flag as he may have wanted the BNA to become the British West India Company in terms of it constitutional relation with the Crown. Even this too would have been out the window.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
I'll admit I don't know much about the Revolutionary war (LOL I'm American and know more about European history than my own country. Kinda sad) but what about the Saratoga campaign? The British defeat there is what ultimately triggered French recognition of the United States, the subsequent Franco-American alliance and ultimately the loss of the Revolutionary war. So if the British win the campaign (or Battle not sure which is better) then the American cause is likely to either collapse or begin to collapse; France isn't going to get involved on the side of a losing power.

The Saratoga Campaign could never have achieved its lofty objectives as long as General Howe went south to attack Philadelphia rather than drive north from New York to link up with Burgoyne. Had he done the latter, however, the result could well have been a decisive British victory. That would have 1) ended all hope of French intervention, 2) cut New England off from the rest of the colonies, and 3) crushed Patriot chances of victory in the public mind, which would have caused a wave of defections back to the Tories.

And even if the Saratoga Campaign had failed, it did not have to end in the surrender of the British army. Burgoyne could have cut his losses and pulled back to the south end of Lake Champlain, which would have at least given him the nominal success of bringing northern New York back under British control.
 
I'm not sure marching North is a great idea. So, who's going to stop Washington from harassing the rear of Howe's army as he marches north?
 
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