Likeliest *Versailles sans US participation in war?

Greetings and salutations.

Assume that the Germans manage to avoid provoking the US into joining the war.

The later, bigger, and better Michael offensive still fails (the British reserves that were in the UK at the time OTL are in place, and the German troops can't help stopping to do some looting after years of deprivation) and the lines stablize a bit further west. 1918-1919 is a bad winter for Germany, and although they manage to do further damage to Italy, to the point where only French and British forces manage to keep all of N. Italy from falling to the Germans and the Italians essentially refuse to take part in any further offensive actions, there is no corresponding success in the west: indeed, the British forces, as they learn how to use their increasingly numerous tanks, manage to make slow progress through the spring and summer (joined by the French once they see progress is being made): by fall, Allied troops are on German soil, although as the Germans learn how to best kill tanks progress has been slowed. To the SE, increased German support is required to simply keep AH from collapsing.

The US continues to support the UK financially (US lenders are so deep in the hole now that only energetic looting of Germany will ever bail them out), and the Ukrainians continue to raise objections to giving away their food to German citizens. When yet another "potato winter" looms, Germans finally crack, violent protest breaks out, red flags are raised in a dozen cities, and the defense of the west crumbles. Austria-Hungary, meanwhile, essentially implodes. By Christmas it's all over but the shouting, and the new government hastily moves to arrive at an armistice with the Allies before they can march into Berlin.

Given this sort of victory, what do you think is the _likeliest_ peace the victorious allies will impose on the Germans? How will they deal with the Poles? The Soviets? (Which have had a sortof year's reprieve: still pressed hard in 1919, the Allies have little to spare for the Whites, and they in any event note that the Soviets aren't actually doing anything to help the Germans, aside from not-fighting-them). The Ottomans/Turks? (Still dug into their trenches in eastern Anatolia in late 1919).

Bruce
 
REEEEEEEEEEEVAAAAAAAAAAAAANCHE!!!!!!!!!!

Germany split to pieces, Large chunks given to Poland, France, and Low countries, the rest divided between different localities which are forced to sign an agreement never to unite. Military occupation of what's left of Prussia. AH dismembered in a way that favors Hungary and the Slavic regions (incl. Ukraine and Czechoslovakia... unless the unification of Czech and Slovakia is butterflied away).

I don't know about the USSR and the Ottomans... butterflies are flapping...
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
But without the US in the war the Entente wouldn't be able to force the Germans to a surrender, instead there would probably have been a negociated peace at some point (stalemate pretty much).
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
No, and I agree Germany would lose the war, however the frontline would not have shifted to German territory, I can see a agreement where Germany lose her colonies and Alsace- Lorraine, bu is allowed to keep her eastern border as well as no border revisions with Belgium and Denmark, and no astronomous war debt.
 
"Michael" was staged because of the Americans. No Americans, no "Michael" - instead consolidation in the east, troop support for the allies.
Without German losses during Michael, no 100 Days - instead some actions à la Cambrai (successful attack - successful counter attack).
The French will get very weary, the Italians as well. With some German divisions in support neither the Austrians in Italy nor the Bulgarians in Macedonia will easily collapse. A negotiated peace would become a rather strong possibility.
 
REEEEEEEEEEEVAAAAAAAAAAAAANCHE!!!!!!!!!!

Germany split to pieces, Large chunks given to Poland, France, and Low countries, the rest divided between different localities which are forced to sign an agreement never to unite. Military occupation of what's left of Prussia. AH dismembered in a way that favors Hungary and the Slavic regions (incl. Ukraine and Czechoslovakia... unless the unification of Czech and Slovakia is butterflied away).

I don't know about the USSR and the Ottomans... butterflies are flapping...

*facepalm*

That's simply put ASB.

Without the US in WWI, all bets are off in regard for an outcome - including a Central Powers victory, or WWI ending undecided with both sides agreeing to a peace due to general exhaustion. Either scenarios are in my opinion more likely than an Entente victory.
 
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America was the breaking point for Germany. Both sides were getting tired, but Germany wasn't getting resupplied. So, while they would've lost anyway, the war would've lasted more years than anyone would've wanted.

The US joining in on the war lead to a massive influx in supplies for the Allies, which is why Germany was crushed.
 

Deleted member 1487

This is the stickiest of PODs. The promise of American manpower helped to rebuild the moral of the French after the mutinies in 1917. Though not the sole or most important component, it was crucial to moral. With Russia out of the war, it is likely that the French don't recover as much morally, which would prove decisive. Militarily the Germans cannot win. The Allies can if moral and political will hold up, but there are no guarantees of this.
Historically, by the end of the war, the French were falling apart. The Hundred days had inflicted massive casualties on the allies too, something close to 1 million. Even the British stated to if the Germans had not fallen apart as an army and actually tried to hold the Hindenburg line, the Allies would not have been able to break through.

Without the threat of American manpower, Ludendorff would not have launched Kaiserschlacht, but rather is more likely to have launched smaller scale offensives in a bit and hold pattern, ie limited objectives, to "fix up" the front line and inflict damage before trying to win the war with a larger offensive. French moral is likely to crack at some point and if (a BIG if) Ludendorff offers peace, a decent peace-meaning being more open to a free Belgium than OTL, the Allies are likely to negotiate.

Germany is likely to keep the Brest-Litovsk and AL. The French soldiers didn't give a shit about the province, it was a politician's dream by the end of the war. If an armistace is declared I highly doubt the French soldiers would be willing to go back into the trenches under any circumstances.
 
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