He was actually quite popular in '72. Remember, in '68 he was pulling a good percentage of the vote before the disastrous LeMay pick, especially in the Midwest. But he seemed to learn from that and go full out populist in '72 and had seemingly figured out what he could and could not say. The busing issue was a godsend for him in the Democratic Primary because it was virulently unpopular, even among racial moderates and to an extent, progressives.
If he doesn't get shot, do I see the party allowing him to win even if he wins the most primaries? No. Or beating Nixon? No.
But I do think that its his best shot.
Then again, the Democratic Party was a shoo in for '76, and I think a lot of the Carter votes in the primary could have gone his way if Carter did not run. Brown, Udall, and Church would fight over the liberal vote. Scoop Jackson might have been able to slide up the middle and win, but remember, support for a hard line on the Cold War was at its nadir in '76 with the Church Commission and the post-Vietnam stuff, so a hardcore AFL-CIO Cold Warrior type like Jackson would be mercilessly attacked by the left of the party. If there is no unity effort, Wallace could potentially win the primaries had he run a good campaign.
My view? His best shot was either '72 by not getting shot, or in '76 with no Carter.
If there is another POD to think of, perhaps he gets shot, but does not get paralyzed. He gets the sympathy, but is able to be the bombastic performer that got him support to start on. '76 was a good year for populism, I think, after Watergate and the crisis in faith of institutions declining. Tough on crime was something everybody agreed on, as was the uselessness of the political establishment. Had he been able to go all out rather than sitting in a chair, could have been a different story.