Likeliest Asian countries (besides Japan) to begin industrializing in the 19th century?

Persia, after the second Russo-Persian war, as the British give it support as a proxy against Russia in the "Great Game"

India, as a "second Britain" ; again as Britain putting a wall south of Russia to halt their expansion

Cochin China.

Massive natural resources, good money supply, lots of cultural mixing, liberal French administration, lots and lots of opportunities for some faction or group to start something weird but profitable.

"Help from outside" is often mentioned for industrialization but it tends to be utterly lacking in examples of European assistance in setting up a manufacturing base. In places like Persia, where there is security concerns, the European response wouldn't be to encourage local industry, but to sell them arms and train the military; the obvious exterior factors of European military power but either of little import or negative (as local arms industries are wiped out in favor of European imports), for actual industrialization.

The great non-European industrialized, Japan, succeeded in the economic sphere despite, not because of, European influence, and modernized on their own initiative. Well, other than knowing that the sword of Damocles was perched above their heads and would certainly execute th if they did not... Europe assisted Japan in modernization, but in active assistance it is without surprise that the military missions are famous while I have never heard of an equivalent economic program which would form the base for Japanese industrialization. In addition, the ability to play off the European powers for influence while not becoming their collective captive like Thailand was certainly vital.

With direct colonies like French Indochina and India this is further amplified. English policy in India favored the import of English goods over local manufacture, and they destroyed local industries and de-industrialized the sub-continent, both by direct means (as an example there was a salt industry in India that the British drove out of existence by abolishing import tariffs while implementing excise taxes on the salt producers) and by indirect means (flooding India with British products). In Indochina the French effects were much the same. Some localized industry did eventually grow up in British India, such as steel and textiles (I do not know what French Indochina industry was like), but it was probably delayed, not encouraged, by European colonialism.

In fact, the European reaponse to security issues in their colonies was often to try to freeze them in time to prevent the instability of social change from taking place... well, except for the European railroads, plantations, and mines, but somehow native culture was able to take these institutions which made a profit for Europeans while other destabilizing ideas like mass education, governmental reform, democracy, allowing natives high into colonial administration, ideas of liberalism, so on and so forth were obviously incompatible...

China already started limited reforms to industrialise in order to build up its military strength as early as the 1860s, but generally failed.

If they had greater political will to pursue wider reforms (like reforming other areas like government, finance, etc to support industrialisation as Japan did, instead of just trying to build factories and shipyards to copy modern weapons), then they might have succeeded.

China has a host of social problems beyond just the government ineptness. Wages in China were low, lower than Japan from my recollection, and the problem wasn't insufficient productivity but rather unemployment. There in not really an incentive for China to really modernize and develop, beyond building up military forces, because doing so will increase internal tensions and disorder in a government trying desperately to achieve stability. The focus on military matters alone just makes one into another tin pot military state. A Chinese government with superior administration can help, but the Chinese situation is from the outset less favorable than Japan's for achieving a broad industrialization.
 
China could've industrialized, had several key moments turned the other way. The 1898 coup was devastating, as it deposed a competent and functional ruler interested in modernization (Guangxu) for an anti-reform ruler (Cixi and her puppets). Furthermore, it quashed the last hopes of effective reform (HDR), and exiled prominent reformers (Kang Youwei and Liang Qichao among them).

Essentially, China needs to pass the New Reforms (OTL 1904-1911), at a time where they have an actually competent and palatable ruler, while they aren't in a time of crisis. The crisis can be alleviated by having Kang and the Baohuanghui/Equivalents win out over the Tongmenhui/Guomingdang/Kuomingtang/Equivalents, thus increasing support for a constitutional monarchy + reforms over the ultimately damaging revolution. Guangxu seemed like a decent ruler, but I have my doubts about how well the HDR would've turned out, given how there wasn't enough ground support. Perhaps if China had done the Self-Strengthening Movement/HDR/New Reforms earlier, without being stupid enough to back the Boxers, while refraining from getting into the Sino-French war, among a host of other issues (The Chinese navy during the First Sino-Japanese war come to mind).

OTL, the reforms (New Reforms) were finally passed, just as the situation hit boiling. Even as the Qing officially became a constitutional monarchy, shit had hit the fan, and revolution was in the air.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
China could've industrialized, had several key moments turned the other way. The 1898 coup was devastating, as it deposed a competent and functional ruler interested in modernization (Guangxu) for an anti-reform ruler (Cixi and her puppets). Furthermore, it quashed the last hopes of effective reform (HDR), and exiled prominent reformers (Kang Youwei and Liang Qichao among them).

Essentially, China needs to pass the New Reforms (OTL 1904-1911), at a time where they have an actually competent and palatable ruler, while they aren't in a time of crisis. The crisis can be alleviated by having Kang and the Baohuanghui/Equivalents win out over the Tongmenhui/Guomingdang/Kuomingtang/Equivalents, thus increasing support for a constitutional monarchy + reforms over the ultimately damaging revolution. Guangxu seemed like a decent ruler, but I have my doubts about how well the HDR would've turned out, given how there wasn't enough ground support. Perhaps if China had done the Self-Strengthening Movement/HDR/New Reforms earlier, without being stupid enough to back the Boxers, while refraining from getting into the Sino-French war, among a host of other issues (The Chinese navy during the First Sino-Japanese war come to mind).

OTL, the reforms (New Reforms) were finally passed, just as the situation hit boiling. Even as the Qing officially became a constitutional monarchy, shit had hit the fan, and revolution was in the air.
Couldn't ground support for the HDR have eventually been developed, though?

Also, didn't China only lose the Sino-French War as a result of its poor showing at sea?
 
Couldn't ground support for the HDR have eventually been developed, though?

Also, didn't China only lose the Sino-French War as a result of its poor showing at sea?
Aye, the navy was utterly shredded. As for ground support for the HDR... That'd be difficult.

See, the deal with the HDR, was that it had some severe problems gaining ground support. The big barrier? The Han gentry. They wanted to get into positions of power, which they would typically do through the exams. Unfortunately for them, the exams needed to go, and as such, they didn't support it. You'd have to drop the Qing apartheid to really get the Han gentry on board with them (Hell, such a move would likely endear them to China in general), and as such, you need to make the Manchu less afraid of assimilation into Han society.
 
Novales Revolt on 1823 succeeds and in kicking out the Spanish and unify the Philippines. It can take on the route of industrialization. Their was talk about it on ramones TL.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/el-caudillo-andrés-novales-an-alternate-history-scenario-take-2.374921/page-7
Aren't they ambiguous of a people to undergo a Meiji? The count had plans, but what about the monarchist Andres, or his brother Mariano?

How far could they conquer before the Spaniards start to descend on Zamboanga, or worse, Manila?

After it, they should get the support of a new elite that will arise from this.
 
Question--was Shintoism more tolerant of industrialization than Confucianism was?

Confucianism in itself wasn't opposed to industrialization. The problem was that due to the (in earlier days modern and admired) system of imperial exams, government officials had to learn ONLY Confucianist teachings, instead of being taught more useful things like economics, physics or geography.

Confucius himself never opposed mass production and the use of machines.;) But if Britain's educated class had only known the works of Plato by heart, instead of dealing with economics or technology, I doubt England would have industrialized.
 
As it has already been said, I do think the best positionated Asian country to do it would be the Sikh Empire.
Had the White Lotus Rebellion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Lotus_Rebellion) been succesful, getting China rid of the Qing dynasty some years befofe the start of heavy European presence in the area, maybe China could follow suit.
Going for some a bit earlied PoDs, had Bengal defeated the Britidsh at Plassey, they could also have had a good shot at modernizing. The same in Persia, had the Afsharid dynasty managed to make a stable succession.
Maybe later XIX Korea could have done better had Empress Myeongseong not been murdered.
Konbaung Dynasty Burma could be another possibility. Even British travellers at the start of the XIX century were impressed with them. Here, You'ld need to find a way to avoid them constantly going to blows with the British (what eventually cost them their freedom) while they're still too weak to defeat them.
 
Top