Lieutenant Jim Callaghan

Inspired by the threads on Thatcher and the SDP, I offer an unlikely POD that might have made Thatcher's position more difficult.

Jim Callaghan was the son of an RN petty officer and, after enlisting as a rating, was promoted to lieutenant in the RN during WW2. What if he had had a deep love of the RN? On becoming PM in early 1976, he negotiates with President Ford a very good deal whereby Britain buy into the Nimitz carrier program agreeing to receive two ships and and F-18s to operate from them. Coral Sea is loaned until the first supercarrier arrives in 1981. The huge cost must be repaid over 1981-1985 but Callaghan is confident that North Sea oil can provide the money.

Thus Argentina would have little hope of holding the Falklands and there would be less money available during the recession of Thatcher's first term.
 
1) The RN was in the midst of a manning crisis during the late 1970s, finding it difficult enough to operate the 3-4 aircraft, asw and commando carriers then in service.

2) The nation was in a grave economic crisis. Short of being at war, I cannot see any Labour Government of that time making such a purchase.

3) The governments of the 1970s were quite committed to the cheaper option of the RN being a large asw force (and amphibious force) for use largely within the Nato area, acting against Soviet SSBNs and in support of the USN carriers in the event of WW3.

4) The RAF offered politicians the cheaper, yet impractical, advice that they could support the navy in the above role. It was bollocks, of course, but cheap. The Invincibles had to be snuck-in by initially pretending they were helicopter cruisers, not carriers; and the Sea Harriers were belatedly embarked upon because they provided an economical means to keep Soviet snoopers away, not as a maritime strike aircraft: RN fixed wing aviation only really took off again post-1982.

5) Those carriers are stupendously expensive and cost a bomb to run and man. You'd have to ditch much of the RN to accommodate them during the late 1970s, which would rather go against the point of having them. Especially when the prevailing doctrine focused on the Soviet threat, best countered with submarines and asw groups/escorts, with the RAF/USN providing fighter cover for RN asw groups during WW3.

And then there is the debate about whether the addition of just 2 such carriers, alongside those already fielded by the USN, would compensate for having to remove a large part of the NATO asw force. I rather feel improving the RAF, building more nuclear submarines and maritime patrol aircraft, and funding Chevaline/Trident was more important given the global backdrop.

This all went on during Callaghan's time in office. So even if he really wanted the carriers, he'd have a tough job convincing anyone, let alone The Treasury and chiefs of staff.
 
HMS Impossible

However much he loved the navy, the money wasn't there to modernise the Ark Royal let alone buy into the Nimitz programme and Thatcher very nearly sold off the Invincible. I don't know what the cabinet minutes say about Callaghan when the Labour government decided to get rid of aircraft carriers in 1966 by cancelling CVA01 and phasing out the other carriers. He was chancellor. How about what if he had not been adopted as a parliamentary candidate and changed from the RNVR to a permanent commission. First Sea Lord in 1966 defending the carriers?
 
I fully agree with FNs comments, especially "Those carriers are stupendously expensive and cost a bomb to run and man." I assumed that Jim had personally negotiated the deal with Ford and then presented it as a done deal but with the expense delayed until 1981 . My point was that the expense would make life difficult for Thatcher. Of course, she could cancel in 1979 but then come 1982 ...

Nice point about 1966 from Andrew. Perhaps, he accepted civil service advice and has always felt guilty.
 
I fully agree with FNs comments, especially "Those carriers are stupendously expensive and cost a bomb to run and man." I assumed that Jim had personally negotiated the deal with Ford and then presented it as a done deal but with the expense delayed until 1981 . My point was that the expense would make life difficult for Thatcher. Of course, she could cancel in 1979 but then come 1982 ...

Nice point about 1966 from Andrew. Perhaps, he accepted civil service advice and has always felt guilty.

This sounds like a good POD to have Callaghan dumped as PM by his own party months after taking office.

An earlier SDP split? An ultra-hawk SDP led by Stoker Jim?
 
I fully agree with FNs comments, especially "Those carriers are stupendously expensive and cost a bomb to run and man." I assumed that Jim had personally negotiated the deal with Ford and then presented it as a done deal but with the expense delayed until 1981 . My point was that the expense would make life difficult for Thatcher. Of course, she could cancel in 1979 but then come 1982 ...

Nice point about 1966 from Andrew. Perhaps, he accepted civil service advice and has always felt guilty.

But the expense would still have to be "factored-in" as an outgoing by Callaghan - couldn't get away with saddling the next govt (which he'd hope would also be Labour, I suppose) with the blame and expense.

Putting it off - much like these PFI schools and hospitals - would've been possible, I suppose, but politically damaging almost as much as if he'd ordered them to be paid for under his administration: and saddling a then cash-strapped nation with such demanding weapons of war would've been far less popular, at least in government circles.

One could, perhaps, see them leased (in perpetuity?) to the Royal Navy, but the changeover and manning problems, set against cheaper NATO requirements, would have been immense.
 
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