Libyan Rhodesia?

Need more clarification. By surviving longer do you mean:

1. WW2 don't happen.

2. Italy stays out of WW2.

3. Or Italy does join WW2 but later than in OTL?
 
Actually I wonder if we could have a rhodesia Libya with a POD *after* ww2. It seems in 1962 there were still 35,000 Italians (along with it seems 7,000 jews -who would have likely sided with the Italians similarly to the situation in Algeria) - together they would be 2.5% of the population, for comparison rhodesia was 5.6% of whites (mixed race population negligible <0.2%) on the year of the UDI

They could get the support of the non arabised berbers, it would be important since they live above the oil, the question is how can the Italian/european minority take power within the framework of Idris’s kingdom, it seems those who stayed were mostly farmers and small artisan who were tolerated by the king, I wonder if some wealthier industries owner stay - maybe oil is discovered a decade earlier, during the U.N. mandate or toward the end of the war so that some stay, those could lobby to accept a few Italian and french and spanish workers , the number doesn’t have to be huge, some thousands each, but libya’s Population is so small this could together push the proportion of supporters by one or two percent, maybe less pogroms during the late 40s could result in a somewhat larger Jewish community. Recruiting a few thousands pied noir who would be leaning, especially if they were working in the nascent oil industry there

Once you have this more influenctial and populous european / Jewish community I wonder if.they could, with Berber help, organise a counter coup in 1969 that could succeed, with the transition military government staying in power for a few years, during which Italians manage to get control of most of the industries and assets., invite many European, sometime under the pretence of developing the economy.

I doubt it would last for long but it could be interesting
 
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Libya's population is small enough, that any retention by Italy would result in it being Italian majority and part of Italy.
 
Libya's population is small enough, that any retention by Italy would result in it being Italian majority and part of Italy.
Yeah. Likely speaking, worst-case scenario for Italy would be a referendum in the 60s and 70s. And by then Libya would be solidly Italian, ethnically and demographically. It would be sure to vote to remain part of Italy.
 
Libya's population is small enough, that any retention by Italy would result in it being Italian majority and part of Italy.

Ehh I wouldn’t say that, Libya still has 6 million people today? Even if you have better quality of life resulting in a slower growth (or is it? when comparing with another developped country with an Arab population - Israel, israel’s Arab population doubled between the first intifada and 2010 (Israel then put heavy immigration restriction for Arabs-Palestinians, during that same period the Libyan population growth was only 60%, by comparing 1955 and current TFR the Arab Israeli one in consistently 20% higher, i should look into it more but I can imagine the feeling of « competition » may explain part of this, I’m sure Arab Israeli did live better on average than Libyan pre Civil war.

Even if we assume a slightly smaller natural population - 5 millions that is still quite a lot, would some emigrate because Libya, controlled by Italians lack opportunities and they would go to mainland Italy? Sure but i’m Not sure it would be enough , it seems 14% of the East German population left to West Germany between summer 89 (when there was a reduction in patrol around the border) and the mid 2000s, , even if you assume a constant 1% (similar to East Germany in the years following reunification, so pretty high) migratory flow to Italy for 70 years that still only halves the population , you still have 2.5-3 million Arabs. Would the same number of Italian settle there? French certainly had trouble settling Algeria in the long term, with pied noir population stagnating between 1930 and 1954, now there is was an economic incentive to leave Algeria since wage were 20% lower there, but I’m not sure a democratic Italian government post-Mussolini (say post early 70s, with him dying in the late 60s and a few more year of dictatorship Portugal - style) would necessarily do large scale effort to send Italians there, so there need to be a multiplication by close to 20 of the Italian in 1940-1975 if we want them to at least overcome Arabs (assuming something like a 50-100% growth from the oil economy after 1975 for them to number 3-4 millions, which is already optimistic), that’s possible, Portugal sent 1 million in less time and with 6 times less people, but it still would require a coherent plan, no significant insurgency near urban Centers and some incentive to go there, especially before oil is discovered, there is a target in migrating south Italians there who would gladly leave , it seems 2 million Italian left Italy between 1929 and 1975 (mostly from the south), while redirecting all of these seems impossible maybe it is possible to redirect a third, half? And it would be complemented by internal migration from the northern part of the country because of opportunities in the oil industry. There were huge development of Libya in the 30s, and there were 20,000+ settlers per year in 1938-1940, during the time Italians “flocked to Libya”, they would need 3 time that number , 60k to hope to reach a similar population as the Arabs by the 70s and the fall of the regime. Possible but I wouldn’t call it certain



It seems thight but possible, there would not be an overwhelming majority in any case , but it would require significant subsidies and a stable plan for settlement of Libya under the dictatorship, a quick pacification of it, you also have to hope Libyans Arab don’t Purposely have many children to compete with the Italian invader (Palestine or Quebec style)

But I wouldn’t say it happens in *every* timeline where Italy keeps it.
 
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If Italy had retained Libya after the war (or without a war ever happening) I think it would be throughly Italianised by now. Italian settlers were flooding into the country before the war made it difficult and dangerous, and likely would've continued to flood into the country either after the war or without the war happening. Certainly the coastal Libyan towns and cities would likely be majority Italian or have substantial Italian populations within them.

600,000 Italians emigrated to the USA after WW2. With a victorious Italy or without a war, many of them probably would've moved to Libya instead.
 
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Actually I wonder if we could have a rhodesia Libya with a POD *after* ww2. It seems in 1962 there were still 35,000 Italians (along with it seems 7,000 jews -who would have likely sided with the Italians similarly to the situation in Algeria) - together they would be 2.5% of the population, for comparison rhodesia was 5.6% of whites (mixed race population negligible <0.2%) on the year of the UDI

Have the Bevin-Sforza proposal luck out and pass, so that Italy gets 10 years of fiduciary administration in which Italians decide to entrench themselves (because no way that the USA and USSR tolerate them longer).

If the Italian government still believes they have a chance, they will not encourage emigration as much as they did OTL.
 
Have the Bevin-Sforza proposal luck out and pass, so that Italy gets 10 years of fiduciary administration in which Italians decide to entrench themselves (because no way that the USA and USSR tolerate them longer).

If the Italian government still believes they have a chance, they will not encourage emigration as much as they did OTL.

Interesting, i didn't know about this, this makes it more plausible, thanks.
 
israel’s Arab population doubled between the first intifada and 2010
Are you referring to both the Arabs living within Israel proper and in Gaza and West Bank or just those in the West Bank and Gaza. Are you referring as percentage of the population or total numbers.

would require a coherent plan, no significant insurgency near urban Centers and some incentive to go there, especially before oil is discovered,
They were planning on turning the Country into Italy's fourth shore with wide-spread agricultural settlements with population of 500,000 settlers by the 1960s and this before the discovery of oil. The Libyan insurgency had been crushed in the 1920s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4th_Shore#Development

Libyans Arab don’t Purposely have many children to compete with the Italian invader (Palestine or Quebec style)
No those are driven by economics not a desire to outbreed anyone
 
They could get the support of the non arabised berbers,
That would require the Europeans to view them as equals not to mention the berbers outnumber by great deal so even by some miracle it does happen shoe would quickly be on the other foot.

I wonder if.they could, with Berber help, organise a counter coup in 1969 that could succeed
Not happening as that would require them to dominate in the military
 

Khanzeer

Banned
What if Libyan arabs demand majority rule ? Will a substantial Italian minority agree to it ?
How will its relationship be with Arab states ?
 
You could get an Italian leader of Libya. Have one of the Italian settler or descendant of convert to Islam,join the military, and take the place of Gaddafi as leader of an Arab nationalist coup or wiggle his way to power in the aftermath.
 
Are you referring to both the Arabs living within Israel proper and in Gaza and West Bank or just those in the West Bank and Gaza. Are you referring as percentage of the population or total numbers.


They were planning on turning the Country into Italy's fourth shore with wide-spread agricultural settlements with population of 500,000 settlers by the 1960s and this before the discovery of oil. The Libyan insurgency had been crushed in the 1920s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4th_Shore#Development


No those are driven by economics not a desire to outbreed anyone

1) Arab population in Israel proper, not the Palestinian territory, the 20-21% of israeli citizens who are (non-Jewish) Arabs, seems the closest analogy, although Libyans and Palestinian aren’y Exactly culturally close.

2)I don’t Disagree with these numbers, but as I said before i’m Not sure they are enough, if we assume a deadline of mid 70s (similar to Portugal/Spain/Greece) I explained above they would need close to 2 millions Italians/European/jews by them if they hope to outnumber the Arabs long term, there were 1.3 million Arabs in 1960, it’s not with 500k Italians that they would outnumber them. By 1975 there would be 2.5 millions Arabs (imo it’s unlikely fertility change would affect population so quickly, in the 90s/2000s there would be a difference but there is too muh momentum to have a significant difference in the 70s, also i’m Not sure Italy would want to invite Arab workers en masse to mainland Italy in the 60s, there may not be enough job for that, the flow at the time was still one of emigration of itslians toward Germany irl )

So Italy would have to send a good 2 million or so people by 1975, 500k in 1960 won’t cut it, they need a million in 1960 and another in the next 15 years.

3) don’t disagree as a partial explanation, but personal experience with Palestinians tells me *before* (now many are hopeless) the desire to outbreed the invader certainly did have an effect in the mindset, it’s only a partial explanation but one that you cannot ignore. I agree it is often blown over for propaganda purpose, and in the case of Quebec even misleading (quebecker population didn’t grow faster than Anglo Canadian until the 1870s, and after that just because quebecker wetr more rural).

4-5) you are perfectly right, it’s just a quick idea full of holes, for 5) like evil crusader said if you could have more Italian involvement in post war Libya it could change the internal dynamics and make the Italians more powerful
 
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