Libyan military updated in 2008/9

In 2008/9, there were several attempts at updating the Libyan military that never went ahead. First of all, the Khamis Brigade attempted to buy Little Bird helicopters from the US but were rejected, let's assume they weren't.

Next, Mutassim tried to form his own special forces brigade along the lines of the one commanded by his brother, but this never happened for some reason. Let's assume he gets this brigade.

Finally, in 2009, Mutassim was pressing to fully modernize the Libyan military, yet it never went ahead for unknown reasons. Let's assume it does go ahead.

I have no doubt that the money for these upgrades were there.

My question is this: With a much fitter Libyan military, how does the civil war go?
 
Well, you'd have to remove Qaddafi's opposition to a strong military. He was the main factor which kept the Libyan Army so weak and essentially powerless. Qaddafi feared that a powerful military, like the one that put him in power, would be a breeding ground for a coup. In that regard, he was probably right. He just didn't anticipate a popular revolution in which a good percentage of the soldiers would join in.

I'd say that in order to get a stronger Libyan military, you need to get Qaddafi more personal control over it. That means more sons in the military instead of in football and even more cronyism. He needs to trust them at least a little to make them strong.

Cheers,
Ganesha
 
Didn't Gaddafi deliberately weaken the army around Benghazi, so it would be less able to launch a coup or pose any kind of threat if its loyalties turned? Meanwhile he kept the strongest and most loyal troops closest to him. That's what I remember from the BBC, anyway; either way, I'd imagine you'd see a tougher military around Tripoli but a similarly weak one near Benghazi. So perhaps, even with NATO aerial intervention, the frontline would ground to a halt and never break the stalemate as it did OTL, leaving us with either more NATO intervention to break this, or perhaps a division of Libya into Pro-Gaddafi West and Pro-Democracy East. Which might then lead to a demilitarised zone as an evolution of the NATO mission (which would also allow them to say 'see? We weren't in for regime change!').
 
Equipment is irrelevant. Gaddafi had warehouses brimming with equipment. What he lacked - not just now, but also in previous decades - was welltrained and motivated personnel in his army.
For giggles read up on his colonial adventures; his armored/mechanised regular forces got beat up by irregulars in toyotas. His army was by far the worst arab army (that's saying quite a lot) and that was definitely not because of lack of arms, money or control by el generalissimo himself.
 
Equipment is irrelevant. Gaddafi had warehouses brimming with equipment. What he lacked - not just now, but also in previous decades - was welltrained and motivated personnel in his army.
For giggles read up on his colonial adventures; his armored/mechanised regular forces got beat up by irregulars in toyotas. His army was by far the worst arab army (that's saying quite a lot) and that was definitely not because of lack of arms, money or control by el generalissimo himself.

Well, one of the PODs above is that his son Muttassim gets a highly trained brigade under his command. IOTL the Khamis brigade did truly amazing work in the civil war, so we're basically improving it slightly and then adding another one.
 
I'd say that in order to get a stronger Libyan military, you need to get Qaddafi more personal control over it. That means more sons in the military instead of in football and even more cronyism. He needs to trust them at least a little to make them strong.

Well Khamis was already highly trained with his own special forces brigade and ITTL, Muttassim gets the same.

As for his other sons, you could never trust Hannibal with his own regiment, Saif al-Arab wasn't really that interested.

I think Al-Saadi could be given a brigade and probably Ayisha too.

Not too sure about Muhammad however.

So to sum up:
The Khamis brigade has little bird helicopters
As well as the Khamis brigade, there is now a Muttassim brigade, an Al-Saadi brigade and an Ayisha brigade
The entire military is modernised.
 
Aisha is a lawyer and was living in Connecticut - why would she be given a battlefield command?

I think if you really want a Jamahiriya victory, you'd have to get rid of Gaddafi himself. Let's say Gaddafi gets cancer and dies in 2008 or 2009 and is replaced by Saif, who lets in lots of foreign money and removes "socialist" from the country's name. Now he's got the West on his good side (they never fully warmed to Muammar, even when he dumped his ideology in 2003 to avoid an Operation Libyan Freedom) and has a chance to build up an actual structure in the government and army.

That's really what's needed - structure. In OTL the ministries and People's Committees existed only on paper, and the family ran almost the entire country single-handedly (along with a couple close cronies like Senussi). Here's a good article about how surreal it was - the guy behind the desk at the Transport Ministry didn't even know if he was the minister or not.

With a functioning Libyan state that NATO leaders are a little more reluctant to bomb (since Saif has become their best buddy), the NTC is going to have a much tougher time.
 
Well, one of the PODs above is that his son Muttassim gets a highly trained brigade under his command. IOTL the Khamis brigade did truly amazing work in the civil war, so we're basically improving it slightly and then adding another one.

Well Khamis was already highly trained with his own special forces brigade and ITTL, Muttassim gets the same.

As for his other sons, you could never trust Hannibal with his own regiment, Saif al-Arab wasn't really that interested.

I think Al-Saadi could be given a brigade and probably Ayisha too.

Not too sure about Muhammad however.

So to sum up:
The Khamis brigade has little bird helicopters
As well as the Khamis brigade, there is now a Muttassim brigade, an Al-Saadi brigade and an Ayisha brigade
The entire military is modernised.

An army can be good at facing an external, conventional threat or it can be good at facing internal crisis (suppressing the masses). It can't be good at both. For this to work Gaddafi (or somebody else in his position) has to realise the internal threat to his position and completely dedicate his armed forces to suppressing the masses of Libya.

Considering there were dozens of attempts on Gaddafi's life and he was extremely paranoid and he solved this problem OTL by decapitating his army, I don't see why he would change his approach suddenly.

Furthermore, considering the size of the Khamis 'Brigade' (10.000) in proportion to the complete Libyan military (50.000 including conscripts), if you're going to dilute your single, elite and trustworthy unit into something twice or thrice the size, it's going to be less politically reliable. It's not exactly as if the regime has sufficient support to recruit two units the size of the Khamis Brigade.

The Little Bird helicopters are going to make zero difference. The Libyan airforce operated amongst others Mil Mi-24, Bell 206, CH-47 Chinook etc.
Most aircraft were in storage because the regime lacked the personnel to maintain and pilot them. The regime was depending upon foreign mercenaries to perform these tasks.
So, apart from a few extra helicopters, you'd need to come up with the necessary personnel. There's also no reason whatsoever for said personnel to desert as soon as that is possible (see the Mirages on Malta OTL) or get shot down by the Coalition airforces.
 
Aisha is a lawyer and was living in Connecticut - why would she be given a battlefield command?

She was actually a high-ranking officer in the Libyan military. She's a woman of many talents.

I think if you really want a Jamahiriya victory, you'd have to get rid of Gaddafi himself. Let's say Gaddafi gets cancer and dies in 2008 or 2009 and is replaced by Saif, who lets in lots of foreign money and removes "socialist" from the country's name. Now he's got the West on his good side (they never fully warmed to Muammar, even when he dumped his ideology in 2003 to avoid an Operation Libyan Freedom) and has a chance to build up an actual structure in the government and army.

A Jamahiriya victory isn't really what i was going for. If it happens, it happens, but that's not my main aim.
 
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