Libyan civil war stalemate ?

A couple of months back i brought up a topic about a Libyan civil war without a no fly zone being implemented. Generally it was agreed the rebels would be crushed quickly.

So, using any possible reason, could a stalemate develop during the Libyan civil war that could cause the conflict to drag on for much longer than otl, such as the UN setting a fixed time limit for the bombing campaign that NATO must abide by, or Gaddafi succesfully taking over Misrata by April freeing up his forcing to attack elsewhere ?
 

Cook

Banned
Sure; have the No Fly Zone actually be that and only that, not a licence for Regime Change.
 

WeisSaul

Banned
Cyreneica breaks off as a constitutional monarchy controlling all of the oil. Libya becomes renamed Tripolitania to further distance itself. Italy and France become Libya's patron great powers in order to stop a huge wave of immigrants.

Tripolitania, without the oil, will have virtually no funds. with the population already cut by some 50% (around 3.3 mil now), the population will slowly emigrate to France, Italy, and Spain, probably cutting the population to around 2.8-2.6 mil.

Foreign escapees, doing menial jobs in order to send money home, will begin pressing for Tripolitanian democracy. Without oil and/or strategic value anymore, and growing international pressure, Ghadaffi will get the boot.

Substantial Italian and French investment will result in Tripolitania either rejoining Italy (language, proximity, social welfare benefits) or more likely becoming a Franco-Italian satellite highly dependent on Franco-Italian investment and Franco-Italian businesses making jobs in Tripolitania.

Eventually it may become stable and wealthy enough (in the future of course) to join the EU. Considering that some Italians are already moving back to Libya today, and influx of immigrants going to Libya from Italy, and going to Italy from Libya will strengthen the bonds between the two countries.
 

mowque

Banned
Cyreneica breaks off as a constitutional monarchy controlling all of the oil. Libya becomes renamed Tripolitania to further distance itself. Italy and France become Libya's patron great powers in order to stop a huge wave of immigrants.

A little old fashioned here, don't you think?
 
I suppose a coup could overthrow Gaddafi if the war dragged on and drained the economy. There were rumours on twitter sometime during the war in Libya that some army Colonel in Tripoli had defected to the rebels and tried to storm Gaddafi's compond with his men but the coup was put down. Of course, this was just a rumour, and it quite possible it never even happened, given that no news network picked it up.
 
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