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Canadian politics isn't my strong suit but I was thinking of a scenario and I was wondering if I could get some opinions on it.
In the 2008 election Trudeau narrowly fails to win Papineau from Vivian Barbot. In 2011 he stands again but Papineau ends up swinging to the NDP as part of the Orange wave. Faced with multiple electoral defeats and not having had the chance to build a political name for himself he declines to run for the 2013 Liberal leadership election. Without him who is the party likely to choose to lead them and what effect might this have on the 2015 Liberal recovery?