The premise here is that the SPD-left formed their own revolutionary organization following their January 1917 expulsion from the party alongside the Kautskyist orthodox Marxist SPD-center, rather than joining the Kautskyist USPD, they might have been able to provide more coherent leadership to the Navy revolt later that summer than the USPD had been able to.
There are several ways it could go from there, two of them as I see it being:
- High-Butterflies (Hi-'Flies): More intact naval revolutionary units than in OTL providing a greater level of armament and training among the striking workers and deserting soldiers in this ATL's equivalent of the autumn/winter of 1918 that saw Emperor Wilhelm resign and the right-SPD form the democratic republic, perhaps leading to the strikes and protests turning into an all out Bolshevik style revolution that is up and running with armed and trained militias before the Free Korps and social democratic government can get off of the ground.
- Low-Butterflies (Lo-'Flies): More intact naval revolutionary units than in OTL could give the revolutionary left the inertia to preempt the broader mass actions that led to the resignation of the Kaiser and to the declaration of the republic, perhaps with Liebknecht getting off his declaration of the German Socialist Republic before any right-SPD republican declaration, and perhaps them leading to a full civil war scenario between the better armed and trained revolutionaries on the sole side of organized republicanism and the disorganized Free Korps equivalent lacking any popular legitimacy from the right-SPD on the other. A straight out battle between the trade unions and deserters on one hand, armed by the more intact surviving Red Naval units, and the reactionary home guard units on the other.
With a low-butterfly approach, I can see something like this, but insight from those who know more about the period would be welcome:
- Left SPD forms a revolutionary organization, for now lets call it Rote Fahne after the later OTL newspaper, rather than joining the USPD in late winter/early spring 1917.
- In the summer of 1917, the naval revolutionaries look to Rote Fahne rather than the USPD for leadership and recieve it, becaming the military arm of a Bolshevik style revolutionary campaign.
- 1918, in an ATL equivalent of the strikes that brought down the Kaiserreich the strikers and protesters look to Rote Fahn for leadership and protection. The existing revolutionary political wing has the advantage, declaring the socialist republic before the right-SPD can call forth a constituent assembly for a democratic republic; and similary the existing revolutionary military wing has the advantage on attempts to form Free Korps type counterrevolutionary militias. Instead of the USPD joining the assembly of a right-SPD democratic republic, they agree to join the assembly of the Socialist Republic that preempted it in this ATL.
- And thus with a background of ATL versions of events where better coordination led to better armed and trained revolutionaries, the equivalent of the OTL Spartakist uprising in Berlin is more successful, at least initially. Instead of a hastily formed revolutionary committee with badly divided Independents (USPD) and Communists (KPD) serving alongside revolutionary shop stewards, there would be a preexisting Socialist Republic of Germany assembly in place better organizing those forces, a preexisting military wing better defending and arming them; as well as a preexisting central committee; the Rohte Fahn revolutionary organization formed instead of the left-SPD initially joining the USPD before breakign off later to form the KPD as in OTL, acting as a more temporarily effective (at the expense of being far less democratic/representative) leadership body than the OTL Revolutionary Committee of the short-lived Berlin uprising.
And yes I'm aware of the timeline where avoiding the Spartakist Revolt all-together leads to a communist Germany. This is more of a Super-Spartakist timeline, and the goal is not necessarily a communist Germany, perhaps just extending and exaggerating the civil war in Germany.
While it is probably more likely an initial left-SPD group formed instead of joining the USPD would have probably been just an earlier KPD, for the sake of clarity and to reflect an attitude I see this organization of having of avoiding the stigma attached to the Spartakist label during the war years, I chose the name of 1918 newspaper Rohte Fahn as the placeholder name of the earlier German bolshevik organization.
There are several ways it could go from there, two of them as I see it being:
- High-Butterflies (Hi-'Flies): More intact naval revolutionary units than in OTL providing a greater level of armament and training among the striking workers and deserting soldiers in this ATL's equivalent of the autumn/winter of 1918 that saw Emperor Wilhelm resign and the right-SPD form the democratic republic, perhaps leading to the strikes and protests turning into an all out Bolshevik style revolution that is up and running with armed and trained militias before the Free Korps and social democratic government can get off of the ground.
- Low-Butterflies (Lo-'Flies): More intact naval revolutionary units than in OTL could give the revolutionary left the inertia to preempt the broader mass actions that led to the resignation of the Kaiser and to the declaration of the republic, perhaps with Liebknecht getting off his declaration of the German Socialist Republic before any right-SPD republican declaration, and perhaps them leading to a full civil war scenario between the better armed and trained revolutionaries on the sole side of organized republicanism and the disorganized Free Korps equivalent lacking any popular legitimacy from the right-SPD on the other. A straight out battle between the trade unions and deserters on one hand, armed by the more intact surviving Red Naval units, and the reactionary home guard units on the other.
With a low-butterfly approach, I can see something like this, but insight from those who know more about the period would be welcome:
- Left SPD forms a revolutionary organization, for now lets call it Rote Fahne after the later OTL newspaper, rather than joining the USPD in late winter/early spring 1917.
- In the summer of 1917, the naval revolutionaries look to Rote Fahne rather than the USPD for leadership and recieve it, becaming the military arm of a Bolshevik style revolutionary campaign.
- 1918, in an ATL equivalent of the strikes that brought down the Kaiserreich the strikers and protesters look to Rote Fahn for leadership and protection. The existing revolutionary political wing has the advantage, declaring the socialist republic before the right-SPD can call forth a constituent assembly for a democratic republic; and similary the existing revolutionary military wing has the advantage on attempts to form Free Korps type counterrevolutionary militias. Instead of the USPD joining the assembly of a right-SPD democratic republic, they agree to join the assembly of the Socialist Republic that preempted it in this ATL.
- And thus with a background of ATL versions of events where better coordination led to better armed and trained revolutionaries, the equivalent of the OTL Spartakist uprising in Berlin is more successful, at least initially. Instead of a hastily formed revolutionary committee with badly divided Independents (USPD) and Communists (KPD) serving alongside revolutionary shop stewards, there would be a preexisting Socialist Republic of Germany assembly in place better organizing those forces, a preexisting military wing better defending and arming them; as well as a preexisting central committee; the Rohte Fahn revolutionary organization formed instead of the left-SPD initially joining the USPD before breakign off later to form the KPD as in OTL, acting as a more temporarily effective (at the expense of being far less democratic/representative) leadership body than the OTL Revolutionary Committee of the short-lived Berlin uprising.
And yes I'm aware of the timeline where avoiding the Spartakist Revolt all-together leads to a communist Germany. This is more of a Super-Spartakist timeline, and the goal is not necessarily a communist Germany, perhaps just extending and exaggerating the civil war in Germany.
While it is probably more likely an initial left-SPD group formed instead of joining the USPD would have probably been just an earlier KPD, for the sake of clarity and to reflect an attitude I see this organization of having of avoiding the stigma attached to the Spartakist label during the war years, I chose the name of 1918 newspaper Rohte Fahn as the placeholder name of the earlier German bolshevik organization.