This is really a thought based on the recent discussion on 'better KM'.
If it is correct that mining of a sea route or harbor (even with a smaller amount of mines) can close it down for a longer period of time, then the objective of stopping supplies going into UK may end up in a very different strategy.
I believe it is a stated fact that UK relied extensively on channel traffic to begin with, among this coal.
Coal = heating and keeping factories going. If the infrastructure is based on channel traffic, it is not easy to suddenly starting to receive coal via rail. Feeder systems must be built and routes created.
Mining of harbors is something that can shut it all down for some time. Risking sinking of bigger ships in the middle of a harbor is not so great. Ignoring a mining operation is downright 'left field'.
Here is the bigger IF
IF Germany had focused on mine development inclusive of delivery mechanisms from (as an example) 1936 and onwards, would mines have been more devastating to UK than any blitz of the harbors could be?
Of course mine countermeasures would be stepped up, but if we try to look at some calculations, we might get somewhere:
I think I read somewhere that a He-111 could carry two mines.
It seems the average bomber force could be some 200 bombers (Wiki).
Out of this let us imagine that 300 mines can be dropped per night.
300 mines dropped into any one harbor should keep the mine sweepers busy for a while. Let us estimate 3 days.
In the event that no ships would be sunk by mines (it is not so difficult to see that the raid is not causing any damage on land, but focused on droppings things in the water) we need only calculate the disruption to shipping, not any shipping losses.
So, 300 mines dropped in the Thames (London docks and estuary) closing the harbor for three days.
Day 2 is a raid on Southampton, closed for 3 days,
Day 3 is a raid on …..
Chuck in some mine laying subs as well and any mine sweeper force will be overwhelmed I think.
Even if there would be mine sweepers just waiting , it still takes time to sweep = harbor closed.
No traffic in and out of UK for a month or two is downright … a calamity.
If we now expand it to the channel and let this roll from 1939, how would it have impacted on the deployment (and support) of BEF?
I do know that mining was indeed carried out, but here we are talking a strategic and focused effort.
Could this have crippled UK? (or am I smoking something?)
Ivan