Another thread got me to thinking, what would be required to have airpower play a much lesser role (particularly naval airpower) in WWII (particularly in the pacific, as it wasn't huge in the Europe anyway).
First World War lasts a year longer due to X and Y. In 1919 there are three inventions taken into use which make a deep impact upon public consciousness of the war. First was the sinking of USS New York and USS Texas in September 1919 by Zeppelin deployed guided bombs. This was a deep shock for naval leaderships worldwide, but particularly for the US Navy.
Second shock was the raid by RAF employing Handley-Page V/1500's on Berlin on October 1919 using gas bombs. While strategic air power spokesmen credit the German decision to start armistice talks on this alone, in minds of public this just strengthened the image of apocalyptic effects of air bombings. Heroic downing of one bomber by one Herrman Göring by ramming instituted a belief upon one generation of airmen that bomber should not allowed to get through.
Third shock was the sinking of SMS Baden by British magnetic mines deployed with submarines.
First and third shocks pressed home the idea that future weapons will employ electronics, second one that a defense against air threat was of vital national importance.
The US Navy made air defence it's primary religion and the US Government was surprisingly happy to spend meager defense funds on newly found radio industry. Other major powers watched, evaluated and stoled the new inventions.
By mid 1930's all major powers had radar guided air defence networks employing capable all weather interceptors. VT fuzes were coming into service and while German AA missiles were first to come to service they were just first ones in the wave.
Development of offensive aerial weapons lagged slightly behind. "Bomber will not get through" was a widely believed dogma during 1930's. Any large bomber was believed to be far too heavy and too expensive to be procured in large numbers except by largest powers which did purchase them. New stand-off weapons being developed would naturally cure some of the problems.