I don't think he would. In spite of my criticisms of the tendency to glorify Sparta, it cannot be denied that the Spartans were fearless and proud. Kneeling? Not happening. History shows us that he'd rather die. And the thing is, he didn't even expect to lose. The idea was not that he'd make a last stand, but that he'd hold Thermopylae while the fleet engaged at Artemision. If not betrayed, he could have done it, too. He was chosen as overall leader of the Greeks for the duration of the war, and not without reason.
If he kneels, the best he can get is power over Greece as a statrap or vassal of Xerxes, seen as a betrayer by his fellow Greeks. If he fights, he may expect to go down as the commander of all the Greeks in a glorious war, which would be infinitely more attractive to him. And chances are, if he had known or expected how things would turn out, he'd still like that better than kneeling. He may like it best, in fact, because... well, because not only has he done the exact thing that Spartans pride themselves on, he has done it in such famous manner that he will forever be the Spartan, and his last stand will always be the last stand. It happened twenty-five centuries ago and the name of the place is still known to all.
The only way I can see him choosing not to fight is if the oracle gives a different prediction, telling him that Sparta will be destroyed if he fights. But to be honest, I'm pretty sure those oracles were bullshit, and the prediction was basically just a legitimation of the decision the king wanted to make. But if you want to do it, that's the only way I can see.
Interesting, that's a massive dent in my idea then aha.
A counter-suggestion, then, because I feel a bit guilty for spoiling the fun. In OTL, when they heard of the deafeat ath Thermopylae, the Greeks decided to withdraw their fleet to Salamis. Artemision had been costly for both sides, but the Greeks could ill afford the losses. Combined with Thermopylae, they felt they had to fall back. In the end, this allowed Themistokles to do what I will always consider the coolest thing of the war. (You know, brilliantly trapping the Persian fleet, using their numbers against them, and basically smashing them to bits.)
Suppose that Leonidas isn't betrayed. Suppose he holds Thermopylae. Suppose the Greek fleet is bolstered by this, and decides not to withdraw to Salamis, and instead try to 'hold the line'-- which seems to be working. Suppose the Greek fleet is forced into battle shortly after, and utterly destroyed.
It's not implausible, and we get the opposite of OTL. Leonidas is still there. The Greeks are holding on land. But their fleet is gone, and Persians will soon land forces. Whatever will Leonidas do? Considering that he can hold Thermopylae with relatively few forces, there are plenty of Greeks left to try and repel ersian landings. Should make for an interesting fight.
Ah sorry didn't mean to make you feel guilty aha, but yeah that sounds very interesting, would or could the Persians defeat the might of Greece in battle, and then hold onto whatever conquests they make?
Either side could win, depending on a lot of factors. If the Persians can effectively land a large army and establish control of a consolidating area, they gain the upper hand. They could do the same Leonidas did at Thermopylae, ironically: leave behind a relatively modest force (since more cannot be effectively used anyway), forcing the Spartans to stay as well, lest they surrender the crucial position. At the same time, all other Persian troops would be available to land in their staging area (already behind the Spartan position), engaging whatever mai force the Greeks can assemble.
The winning strategy for the Greeks under such circumstances would be to prevent the Persians from gaining a solid foothold. Slaughter them on the beaches. That's going to be carnage for both sides, but it'll work if done right. They have to land, and as long as you're keeping them out, you're winning. Which means moral doesn't plummet and in fact more and more troops will keep arriving (the main Greek problem would be getting a large enough army on-site soon enough to confront the Persians on the shore).
However, even if they win, keeping Greece would be a tough job for the Persians. Depending on how total their vctory is, and how many forces they are willing and able to spare to keep Greece permantly garrisoned, they could hold on for quite some time. But when they're forced to withdraw troops (which will eventually happen), I foresee a quick war of independence.
(The 'garrisoned Greece' outcome is, by the way, also what would happen if Leonidas did kneel to Xerxes. With the difference that Leonidas would by the presumed governor of occupied Greece, and sparta would thus be in charge. With the result that when independence does become viable, Sparta will be a target for the other Greeks.)
Either side could win, depending on a lot of factors. If the Persians can effectively land a large army and establish control of a consolidating area, they gain the upper hand. They could do the same Leonidas did at Thermopylae, ironically: leave behind a relatively modest force (since more cannot be effectively used anyway), forcing the Spartans to stay as well, lest they surrender the crucial position. At the same time, all other Persian troops would be available to land in their staging area (already behind the Spartan position), engaging whatever mai force the Greeks can assemble.
The winning strategy for the Greeks under such circumstances would be to prevent the Persians from gaining a solid foothold. Slaughter them on the beaches. That's going to be carnage for both sides, but it'll work if done right. They have to land, and as long as you're keeping them out, you're winning. Which means moral doesn't plummet and in fact more and more troops will keep arriving (the main Greek problem would be getting a large enough army on-site soon enough to confront the Persians on the shore).
However, even if they win, keeping Greece would be a tough job for the Persians. Depending on how total their vctory is, and how many forces they are willing and able to spare to keep Greece permantly garrisoned, they could hold on for quite some time. But when they're forced to withdraw troops (which will eventually happen), I foresee a quick war of independence.
(The 'garrisoned Greece' outcome is, by the way, also what would happen if Leonidas did kneel to Xerxes. With the difference that Leonidas would by the presumed governor of occupied Greece, and sparta would thus be in charge. With the result that when independence does become viable, Sparta will be a target for the other Greeks.)
I am not so sure that would be the case. The Hellenes were fairly disunited even facing the Persians (though most major poleis were not) and I think that, in the case the fleet was gone and the Persians well estalished on Leonidas' back, many cities would have indeed bent the knee. After a successful landing, of course, Leonidas would ultimately see little point in holding the Thermopylae, and he'd turn back if possible. He'd also bend the knee if he sees no other honorable alternative and no hope to win, though I agree that he'd prefer to make a heroic last stand, if he sees a point in it.
If unified resistance is sufficiently broken, the Persians may be reasonably confident that intra-hellenic cooperation to revolt would be scarce, and they would have an easy time playing the Hellenes' internal rivalries to keep control. Revolts would occur, but a war of independence is unlikely for quite a while IMHO.
Except that the particular Macedon in question could not possibly be in existence in this context, the timeframe would be entirely realistic I guess. The Persian Empire had plenty of trouble controlling various peripheries in that period, there was decentralization ongoing (and possibly some ossification at the centre). Well, to be fair, when Alex showed up, the Persians were somewhat recovering... but several peripheries had been, if not entirely lost, either under a very loose control, or very hard to keep in line. Having Greece would add to both benefits (manpower, in huge numbers, and of the finest kind, for the Imperial Army: hey, trained hoplites! For free! Nobody else in Asia has that) and troubles (the sources of hoplites rebel. Often. Fielding hoplites. You can't always trust all your hoplites against them, 'cause the rebels may happen to be their cousins. Terrain is nasty. Loot is unimpressive in case of victory anyway. Manageable when the house is in order, but a difficult satrapy to rule).Intriguing so possibly something during say a certain Macedon's time?
I am not so sure that would be the case. The Hellenes were fairly disunited even facing the Persians (though most major poleis were not) and I think that, in the case the fleet was gone and the Persians well estalished on Leonidas' back, many cities would have indeed bent the knee. After a successful landing, of course, Leonidas would ultimately see little point in holding the Thermopylae, and he'd turn back if possible. He'd also bend the knee if he sees no other honorable alternative and no hope to win, though I agree that he'd prefer to make a heroic last stand, if he sees a point in it.
If unified resistance is sufficiently broken, the Persians may be reasonably confident that intra-hellenic cooperation to revolt would be scarce, and they would have an easy time playing the Hellenes' internal rivalries to keep control. Revolts would occur, but a war of independence is unlikely for quite a while IMHO.
I'm not certain, either, of course. Yet I'm comparing it to OTL. Thermopylae falls, all despair, Themistokles rallies the fleet for one last decisive action-- and he carries the day. I'm of the opinion that Leonidas, who was initially granted overall command of the Greek forces because he was considered the best leader of them all, could achieve something like that, too. The fleet is crushed, and all despair, yet Leonidas makes for one final attempt-- and (potentially) the Persians are defeated as they make their landing. (Needless to say, it could also go the other way, but what I just suggested mirrors OTL so very prettily.)
Basically, I think Leonidas could rally enough Greeks to make a pretty decent stand. There are many Greeks already afield, his forces at Thermopylae were the vanguard. He can leave the main body of leave his forces to block Thermopylae, while taking a smaller contingent to rally as many forces as he can (gathering the already marching Greek forces) and meet the Persians where they land. If he loses, that's the end of the war. If he wins, the poleis regain faith (as they did after Salamis).
Regarding the holding of Thermopylae: it would be needed as he marches on the Persians who are about to land, because abandoning Thermopylae means the Persians there can just move through and chase him, which would put him between two Persian armies. That would be madness. (And we all know what Leonidas says to that.) So until the confrontation is done, Thermopylae must be held. After that, it will continue to be held if the Persians are pushed back into the sea, and will no doubt surrender if the Greeks are defeated and the Persians gain a definitive foothold.
I'd say that Leonidas himself would fight to the death, though, rather than surrender. Unless he gets there too late, the Persians already have to good a position, and a lot of poleis throw in the towel. At that point, surrender without giving battle becomes the only sensible option. But again: I think he could get a Greek army on-site fast enough to give the Persians a run for their money.
Now, supposing that the Persians win, it's true that they will exploit internal rivalries. Whichever major player joings them first gets to be their proxy, probably. A problem for them is that they have always plyed the poleis off each other, but this gets harder because occupation will almost certainly result in some kind of proxy ruler. That 'traitor city' will become the focal point of hatred from the others, and once Persian control weakens, they will turn on that city. A bit like Athens turning on the Thirty Tyrants, except on a way, way bigger scale.
So, quite different to my normal pods, but what would it take for King Leonidas to bend the knee to King Xerxes, and what would the ramifications be for Sparta, Greece and the wider world?
Eh... Pylos/Sphacteria...Spartans don't surrender. "With your shield or on it."