Lennin has to stay put

What if the German don't allow Lennin safe passage ?
I don't think he could have gotten back to Russia any other way, until the end of the war. So does the Russian government survive until the end of the war? If Germany has to fight a two front war with the US coming in does that mean that Pershing can lead the troops to the banks of the Rhine. Could that be a defeat that even Corporal Hitler has to recognize? With a Russian on the Committee of Five I assume that the Treaty of Versailles is even more vindictive. At the very least Germany has to pay more reparations. What is the post situation in Russia
and how does that effect the world ?
 
I doubt the Provisional Government can hang on until the end of the war. There's a reason the Bolsheviks were able to come to power, and it's that a large portion of the population was starving and wanted food and peace. It's hard to say how the PG would collapse. Prior to Lenin's arrival, the Bolsheviks weren't nearly as radical or anti-war. Maybe you'd see the Left SR's take power(perhaps in an alliance with the Bolsheviks) and end the war. I don't see the Provisional Government hanging on until there are Germans in Petrograd.
 
If the Provisional Government manages to get its act together quicker it might be able to keep Russia in until the war's end (which might be a bit earlier with Germany still having to fight on two fronts). A Versailles settlement that includes Russia will be more punitive on Germany as you say. Territorially, I think Germany will lose more land in the east to create a buffer Poland between Germany and Russia that includes less former Russian land than OTL.

I don't know that much about the Russian Revolution/Civil War but I think without Lenin the Mensheviks will continue to be the dominant force in the Petrograd Soviet - the main opponent of the Provisional Government. The key to Russia's future direction will be how well both the PG and the PS can deliver 'land, peace and bread' to the peasants and workers. If the PG comes out on top then Russia will probably become a conservative republic, the PS will probably create a social democracy while if both fail then the Bolsheviks will be able to step into the gap and you get a communist Russia. However, like I say I don't know that much about the topic so this is probably too simplistic and/or wrong.
 
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