Lenin gets his way at Brest-Litovsk: Effects on WWI and the USSR?

[Soup]

So let's say Lenin is able to force his will on the rest of the Bolsheviks when the initial Brest-Litovsk treaty is proposed and Congress Poland, Lithuania, and Livonia are ceded to the Central Powers in December 1917. Is this too late to give Germany a chance at victory in the West? This thread seemed pretty split on the notion and I find both sides to be pretty compelling.

And how would this effect the progress of the Russian Civil War? While an earlier peace deal may hurt Bolshevik legitimacy, it also gives them a much freer hand to take on their opponents in the war. It could also mean that the entire Czechoslovak Legion debacle never happens, considering that the Bolsheviks are in a much stronger position both in their own right and especially w/r/t the Central Powers who will be more focused on the West at any rate now. Which could easily result in a USSR that suffers far less overall in the RCW. Any other thoughts?

 

[snerfuplz]

I would say no it probably would not change the outcome. The outcome of the Spring Offensive was perhaps the best the Germans could hope for given the desperate situation of the army and economy. Comparing the Spring Offensive the the 100 Days, the Entente's offensive was more strategic and tactical suggesting the German army had a serious structural problem in 1918

It should be worth noting that in OTL Brest-Litovsk was a material drain on Germany not a material benefit. While it was an important moral victory for Germany it didn't have much immediate benefit.

 

[BigBlueBox]

I’ve seen more than one timeline here in which an earlier Brest-Litovsk led to Italy being knocked out after the Battle of Caporetto, allowing the Spring Offensive to be conducted with nearly the entire German and Austria-Hungarian armies, leading to the defeat of France.

 

[snerfuplz]

I’ve seen more than one timeline here in which an earlier Brest-Litovsk led to Italy being knocked out after the Battle of Caporetto, allowing the Spring Offensive to be conducted with nearly the entire German and Austria-Hungarian armies, leading to the defeat of France.

I'd be curious if that includes the German East Armies. In OTL a million men were left to occupy the East and most of the food/resources in the area went to these troops.

 

[BigBlueBox]

I'd be curious if that includes the German East Armies. In OTL a million men were left to occupy the East and most of the food/resources in the area went to these troops.

It presumably requires a lot less men to occupy Poland, Lithuania, and Courland than the aforementioned areas along with the rest of the Baltics and the entirety of Ukraine.

 

[History Learner]

It frees up multiple A and B rated formations for duty in the West which, given that IOTL the Spring Offensive brought the Kaiser's Armies within a hair of taking Hazebrouck and Amiens, would prove decisive. If both of those cities fall, the BEF is destroy, followed rapidly be the French. London would shortly thereafter also have to be evacuated and the Americans would not become viable until late 1919, far too late to rescue the Anglo-French.

 

[Soup]

It frees up multiple A and B rated formations for duty in the West which, given that IOTL the Spring Offensive brought the Kaiser's Armies within a hair of taking Hazebrouck and Amiens, would prove decisive. If both of those cities fall, the BEF is destroy, followed rapidly be the French. London would shortly thereafter also have to be evacuated and the Americans would not become viable until late 1919, far too late to rescue the Anglo-French.

Do you think the British would try to aim the Americans towards the Middle East where they'd still be superior, or would the war end before Americans could do anything in that theater?

 

[History Learner]

Do you think the British would try to aim the Americans towards the Middle East where they'd still be superior, or would the war end before Americans could do anything in that theater?

The United States had not declared war on the Ottomans, did not have sufficient military production underway to support its forces beyond basic small arms and, finally, London would be in no condition to organize this because London itself would rapidly become untenable in the face of German control of French territory north of the Somme.

 

[David T]

To quote a post of mine from a few months ago:

"Given that (1) the German-Soviet negotiations at Brest-Litovsk did not even begin until December 22, (2) the Bolsheviks were still hoping that revolutions in central and western Europe could save them, and therefore wanted to stall as much as possible, and (3) even in February, when it was clear that stalling had failed and that the Germans could advance deep into Russia almost without opposition, Lenin still faced furious opposition from within the Bolshevik party (let alone its Left SR allies) over accepting the peace, I just don't see how peace could plausibly be concluded in December." https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ade-in-december-of-1917.474347/#post-19421877