Lenin assassinated in Switzerland

What would be the effects if a Russian Socialist Revolutionary made it into Switzerland and assassinated Lenin before the Germans allowed him to return to Russia? Would the Bolsheviks be as successful in disrupting the Empire under Trotsky as they were under Lenin? Would Trotsky strike a deal with Kerensky?
 

Cook

Banned
Would the Bolsheviks be as successful in disrupting the Empire under Trotsky as they were under Lenin? Would Trotsky strike a deal with Kerensky?

Let’s use the right terminology so we aren’t causing confusion.

The Empire had ceased to be before Lenin returned to Russia. The Bolsheviks did not topple the Tsar; Russia was a Republic by the time of the Bolshevik Coup toppled the Provisional Government of Alexander Kerensky.

Sorry if this sounds pedantic, I can see you know about Kerensky and the Provisional government, it’s just that we’ve had people in here in the past asking “What if Lenin hadn’t overthrown the Tsar?”
 
Yes, sorry, I was thinking of the Kerensky government and the Duma. Would Trotsky be as successful? Would the Bolsheviks split into factions? And what would Stalin do?
 
Yes, sorry, I was thinking of the Kerensky government and the Duma. Would Trotsky be as successful? Would the Bolsheviks split into factions? And what would Stalin do?

Although we tend to talk in shorthand about Lenin doing this or that, the Bolsheviks at the time did have a kind of functioning internal democracy. Lenin had a hard time, if I recall correctly, getting the Bolsheviks to support a pustch. Meanwhile the Soviets that supported the putsch weren't just Bolshevik instruments. They included lots of Mensheviks, SRs, anarchists and independents. To a certain extent Lenin was following events as much as making them.
 
I did some research on this for a short timeline that I did. The Petrograd Soviet was fairly moderate and willing to work with other parties, including the Provisional Government until Lenin arrived on the scene. He took the Petrograd Soviet hard to the left and refused to compromise with anyone who did not follow his exact party line. With Lenin out of the picture you could end up with some sort of democratic representative Russian government. It would most likely be a left leaning parliamentary system, given the power players that would be left.
 
A non communist Russia creates many butterflies. I think it is harder for Hitler to take power without fear of communism. Without Hitler I don't see World War Ii. Communism would be an obscure philosohy.
 
The fact that Lenin was not assassinated while domiciled in Switzerland strongly suggests the Entente never got wind of German plans for the 'sealed train' to Finland Station.
Just a little surprising in view of various British intel coups (room 40 cracking the HSF signal code, deciphering Zimmerman telegram for example).
 
A non communist Russia creates many butterflies. I think it is harder for Hitler to take power without fear of communism. Without Hitler I don't see World War Ii. Communism would be an obscure philosohy.

Lenin didn't invent socialism or even left wing socialism. There were revolutionary movements throughout Europe before the Bolsheviks ever got to the position of being a guiding force (in most countries there was no communist party allied to the Bolsheviks). I think Hitler and the property owning classes found Marxism quite disturbing enough.
 
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