Legitimare WI: North/South German Federations?

[Mr. BoJangles]

Let's say, with a POD between 1750 and 1840 (preferably at 1820), would it be possible for Prussia to form the North German Federation, to include Luxembourg*, with Austria forming the South German Federation? Austria preferably keeping Venetia and Lombardy while possibly also taking Switzerland*

If this occurs, what are the odds of both federations uniting under a single crown? Or as a true "Dual Monarchy" with two monarchs... And how would the rest of the world, particularly this German Empire, develop as a result?


*These are simply suggestions for a German Empire that extends to its largest possible, non-asb size.

 

[stevep]

Let's say, with a POD between 1750 and 1840 (preferably at 1820), would it be possible for Prussia to form the North German Federation, to include Luxembourg*, with Austria forming the South German Federation? Austria preferably keeping Venetia and Lombardy while possibly also taking Switzerland*

If this occurs, what are the odds of both federations uniting under a single crown? Or as a true "Dual Monarchy" with two monarchs... And how would the rest of the world, particularly this German Empire, develop as a result?


*These are simply suggestions for a German Empire that extends to its largest possible, non-asb size.

Mr. BoJangles

Its possible, although I doubt that Austria would annex Switzerland. Its independence and neutrality had very strong internal and external support. Without major changes in Austria the north would undoubtedly be stronger as industrialization develops but they could maintain their independence with good leadership and wise alliances.

Steve

 

[Last of the Stuarts]

A split on religious lines is possible, with the Catholic south coming into the Austro-Hungarian Empire. If Prussia had lost the war in 1866 this would have almost certainly have happened. I VERY much doubt this included Switerland for the reasons given above.

The North would industrialise as OTL and would overshadow the south, this may lead to war at some time as Austria would certainly side with France against the North.

Italian unification is the main loser, as with a stronger Austria and France not being distracted by Germany there will be more troops to resist the Red Shirts.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Another good POD would be at the Congress of Vienna, or even during the Napoleonic Wars. If the Habsburgs realize that attempting to revive the HRE is a doomed venture, and Prussia does better in the war, then perhaps dividing Germany between themselves with the smaller states falling into their orbits would suffice. Luxembourg would be an interesting question - though closer to Prussia in terms of territory, it's Catholic and a key region.

 

[Ferreolus]

If the South German states (Baden, Württemberg, and Bavaria) would not have been included into the North German Confederation (which thereby became the German Empire), I doubt they would have joined Austria-Hungary. All of them were large enough to survive on their own and weren't so much under the domination of Prussia as the smaller northern states.

 

[Badshah]

If the South German states (Baden, Württemberg, and Bavaria) would not have been included into the North German Confederation (which thereby became the German Empire), I doubt they would have joined Austria-Hungary. All of them were large enough to survive on their own and weren't so much under the domination of Prussia as the smaller northern states.

Actually with a POD of 1866, this outcome is quite likely. Austria-Hungary would never have been created, and the South German Federation would have been the German Empire. But in OTL, a lot of the Northern states were allied with Austria, so the result could become Germany without Prussia. (And with Westphalia as part of Germany.)

 

[Welshroyalhistory]

Uniting Baden & Bavaria

would have been relatively simple.

In 1817, it looked as if the legitimate heirs of the Grand Duke of Baden were dying out, to ensure the survival of Baden as an independant state, there was an amendment to the succession to allow the descendants of a previous Grand Duke's morganatic marriage to have succession rights.

Were it not for this change, the King of Bavaria was the heir of the Grand Duke of Baden and would have thus united Bavaria and Baden under one monarch in due course.

I do not know what compensation the King of Bavaria recieved for this.

 

[t0m1991]

If Germany was to be split between Austria and Prussia at the congress of Vienna who would get the catholic Rhineland?

 

[Anderman]

IIRC the Peace of Prague after the German War of 1866 had a clause that the southern State of German should form a Süddeutscher Bund but without Austria.

 

[Mr. BoJangles]

This isn't precisely about them remaining independent entities, but rather utilizing their strengths to form their regional federations before (if at all) forming the Greater German Empire. The main point is that Austria is stronger, and thus able to bring Bavaria, Baden, and Württemberg into their sphere... whilst also being strong enough to prevent war with Prussia for a while.

Another point of interest is the question of Hungary. Personally, my thought would to, once Austria makes the necessary internal/external/political changes, decides to instead sever all ties with the Hungarian people. Granting them Hungary Proper, Croatia, Slavonia, and Transylvania, while Austria retains Dalmatia, Istria, Bukovina, Slovakia, and Galicia.

Ideally (and personally) it would be A Prussian dominated North, Austrian dominated South, with a very close Hungarian Ally (as Austria/South German Federation granted them their independence and much of their kingdom in exchange for retained alliances, using Prussia/North German Federation as a mediator)

Thoughts?

 

[Prefrence]

I believe Prussia offered to split Germany at the Mainz so Wurttemburg, Saxony, Bavaria, Hesse-Kassel, and Baden would go to Austria, the remaining German nations would go under Prussian influence.

Austria declined (arguably the worst decision they made in awhile)

 

[Vitruvius]

I believe this was Prussia's preferred solution in the early days. IIRC Prussia made an offer to this affect in '59 or there abouts. Basically they would have supported Austria against France and Sardinia if Austria relinquished its primacy in Germany and allowed Prussia to assume leadership in northern Germany. I don't think the specifics were ever really worked out because Franz Josef rejected it on principle. So there was never any mention of southern or northern confederations or the alignments of various states.

Bismarck was more aggressive. I know he mentioned as early as '62 that Austria should 'shift its center of gravity from Germany to Hungary.' Prussian support would then be given to Austria in Italy and the Balkans. Thus when Bismarck made the next offer during the debate over the future of Schleswig-Holstein it was more vague and Austria was not given any assurances regarding southern Germany. Whether or not that was part of a master plan on Bismarck's part of just him taking advantage of the situation one can't dispute that Austria had much less leverage by the mid 1860's.

So ideally I think it would need to happen before '59 and Austria's defeat at Solferino or, failing that, immediately after, before tensions in Germany rose after the invasion of Schleswig-Holstein. One opportunity may hve been the Fürstentag, the gathering of German heads of state that occurred in Frankfurt in '63. A much more pragmatic Austrian position may have convinced Bismarck to let Prussia attend and a deal could have been hammered out. Altering the proposed Federal reforms to eliminate the mid-level states like Bavaria and Hanover in favor of recognizing Austro-Prussian dualism could have brought Prussia on board. Likely there would have still been one German Confederation but there could have been some kind of military or economic subdivisions that recognized Prussian leadership in the north. This defacto split could be made explicit down the road after the two halves consolidated around Austria and Prussia.

 

[wolf_brother]

IOTL France nearly intervened in the Austro-Prussian War on Austria's side. Louis-Napoléon literally changed his mind the night before his troops were to advance toward the Rhine. If they had you'd likely see a North German Federation that would essentially be Prussia and its proxies and conquered territories, an Austrian (German) Empire in the south, while the 'Middle States' would form their own confederation; i.e., Bavaria, Württemberg, Baden, possibly Limburg and Luxembourg, possibly even the Rhineland depending on how exactly the war plays out.