Lee's horse accident

Apparently shortly before Lee embarked on his Maryland Campaign in 1862, Lee, Jackson, and some aides were on their horses when their horses got spooked. Jackson was thrown off and got a concussion, Lee also got injured breaking his wrists I believe. In Dixie Victorious, there's a story which follows the line of Lee not being injured in this accident and thus being more lucid during the campaign. He ends up defeating the AOTP at Frederick and ultimately securing foreign recognition and mediation. For those who have read the story, how plausible is this? Could history have been different had their horses simply not been spooked? Thanks guys.
 
Venturing that far east with the force disparity Lee has is extremely dangerous. Antietam as it was was a close escape abetted by a dysfunctional Army of the Potomac, if Lee concentrates his vastly smaller army at Frederick by the time the federals get there in force he's awful far from the Potomac and seriously dependent on the good will of the Union Army to maintain his supply line and route of escape. This victory would have to be Chancellorsville on steroids with a significantly higher differential in casualties just to keep Lee from completely exhausting his ammunition and becoming trapped on the wrong side of the Potomac.
 
Venturing that far east with the force disparity Lee has is extremely dangerous. Antietam as it was was a close escape abetted by a dysfunctional Army of the Potomac, if Lee concentrates his vastly smaller army at Frederick by the time the federals get there in force he's awful far from the Potomac and seriously dependent on the good will of the Union Army to maintain his supply line and route of escape. This victory would have to be Chancellorsville on steroids with a significantly higher differential in casualties just to keep Lee from completely exhausting his ammunition and becoming trapped on the wrong side of the Potomac.
Lee went much further when he ventured off to Gettysburg so I'm not sure what makes you say Frederick would be so out there. Plus, Lee's army was in Frederick for a short while before moving on and ending up at Sharpsburg. Lee and his army were quite disappointed at how Unionist Frederick was, they expected a warm welcome from Maryland.
 
Lee had a significantly larger army at Gettysburg and had drawn the union army much farther from the river. His escape through Williamsport was a close run thing significantly abetted by the union forces not being close enough to pin him against the river before he could get his bridge back up.

Lee only had part of his army at Frederick because the rest of it hadn't caught up and the Army of the Potomac hadn't arrived in force. By the time Lee would be able to concentrate his whole army at Frederick the Army of the Potomac is going to be all over it. Unless you're suggesting Lee bypasses Harper's Ferry he's just not going to be able to concentrate both of his corps by the time McClellan is at the South Mountain passes.
 
Lee had a significantly larger army at Gettysburg and had drawn the union army much farther from the river. His escape through Williamsport was a close run thing significantly abetted by the union forces not being close enough to pin him against the river before he could get his bridge back up.

Lee only had part of his army at Frederick because the rest of it hadn't caught up and the Army of the Potomac hadn't arrived in force. By the time Lee would be able to concentrate his whole army at Frederick the Army of the Potomac is going to be all over it. Unless you're suggesting Lee bypasses Harper's Ferry he's just not going to be able to concentrate both of his corps by the time McClellan is at the South Mountain passes.
I'm trying to scan through the story right now and it does seem like Lee does bypass Harper's Ferry and decide to concentrate at Frederick and face only a part of McClellan's army which was heading his way. Reno's IX and Hooker's I corps I believe. (I'm far from an expert btw, just trying to understand the historical and potential situation)
 
I think it'd be an extremely risky maneuver that denudes the campaign of the one really successful thing it had going for it in OTL in favor of a battle at the end of which Lee is going to have to withdraw from Maryland regardless.
 
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