Hi...long time lurker, first time poster. Please excuse me if I inadvertantly exhume any whipping-horses here.
[Woody Allen] Eh...eh...be gentle, it's my first time...eh...eh[/Woody Allen]
Anyway:
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I've seen plenty of AH scenarios where a victorious south at G-burg leads to Southron Victory.
On the surface you can see why. It's often considered the climactic battle of the ACW for a reason. Bruckheimer couldn't have created a more smashtacular climax!
But in reality, could it have made any difference?
By this point (July '63) Grant is wrapping up Vicksburg, Bragg is in retreat in Tenn., and the Emancipation Proclamation is several months old, making any foreign support look like a tacit approval of slavery (very unpopular in Europe at the time). Plus I've always read that Palmerston never really intended to give military aid even had he "recognized" the CS.
It's too early to really effect the '64 election (unless the victory leads to such a long and ugly fight as to push more into the Mac camp a year down the road).
Strategically, what can Lee do? His "goal" was IIRC to divert US attentions and releive pressure on the Miss campaign...but with V-burg gone and Bragg falling back to Choo-Choo Town that hope's lost. Even if Lee totally crushes the AoP I can't imagine his army being in any condition to exploit the win assuming typical casualty rates. If he manages to surround and capture large swaths of the AoP what could he do with all the prisoners? Divide his forces to carry the POWs back to ol' Virginny?
Could Lee exploit this victory to any major degree? I can't see him having the troops to take DC (whatever Mac lacked in the field he was one hell of an engineer...the remains of those trenchworks are STILL formidable 150 years past!). I can't imagine a siege being any more realistic considering Southron numbers and supply problems.
All I can imagine is that it delays the fall of Richmond a little while...possibly falling IITL to Sherman from the south?
Would a Lee victory in G-burg or equivalent ATL battle really have made a difference? Thoughts?