Lee wins Gettysburg...so what?

People also forget the reason Meade didn't mount an aggressive pursuit of Lee was because he was under political pressure to keep his army between the Army of Northern Virginia and Washington. It's safe to assume that unless his force is routed completely, he'll do the same in the case of a defeat.

Possible scenario's for Confederate victory at Gettysburg? First one I can think of is during Day one. Trimble wanted to sieze Culp's Hill with his division and Ewell overruled him. With a strong position like that in Confederate hands, the Union would almost be compelled to launch an offensive against Lee which could be repelled just as the Confederate attacks were OTL.

Another possible scenario is to disengage from Gettysburg completely. Longstreet advocated this option to Lee after day one, and again after day two. He wanted to march south around the Union's left flank and try to outmarch the Union army. His idea was to get between Meade and Washington, find some good defensive ground, and Meade would have to attack.

If the battle at Gettysburg continues as it did OTL, there still was a good chance the Confederates could win on day two. If the attacks on the union left and right were properlly coordinated and if Chamberlain's stand was somewhat less valiant, the Confederates could've still siezed the heights, though at a rather high cost. With Culp's hill and Little and Big Round Top in Confederate hands, suddenly Hancock and Sedgewick would find themselves in vulnerable positions come the next day.

Fact of the matter is, Meade might have lost the battle, but I don't think he'd allow his entire command to be destroyed. The logistics of the enterprise were just too poor for Lee. Short of siezing a great city like Philadelphia, Harrisburg or Baltimore there's just no way he could sustain his army in enemy country. He'd eventually be compelled to retreat even with a victory.

The political ramifications of the victory would be dire. Meade might even lose his job. That would likely be good news for the South as Meade was a rather competent commander, if rather cautious. Likely successors would be Hancock or Sedgewick I imagine since Grant's not coming east for another nine or so months.

And I do agree with the point on McClellan winning the election. He always struck me as a fellow in love with himself. He'd consider himself the man to do the job Honest Abe, his old nemesis, couldn't. And as much as I hate to say it, he probably would be a competent commander-in-chief, so long as you keep him away from the field.
 
People also forget the reason Meade didn't mount an aggressive pursuit of Lee was because he was under political pressure to keep his army between the Army of Northern Virginia and Washington. It's safe to assume that unless his force is routed completely, he'll do the same in the case of a defeat.
What if Meade has to make a choice either to stand siege in Washington or retreat and try to relieve the siege of Washington from outside?
The logistics of the enterprise were just too poor for Lee. Short of siezing a great city like Philadelphia, Harrisburg or Baltimore there's just no way he could sustain his army in enemy country. He'd eventually be compelled to retreat even with a victory.
The western Maryland looks like a wedge between Potomac and Chesapeake.

If Lee won, would he have a chance to seize Baltimore, cut off the whole wedge, blockade Washington and defend northern Maryland/southern Pennsylvania against relief attempts?

Oh, and Sherman was to sustain his army a long way after Atlanta.
 

burmafrd

Banned
And what does Lee do about his thousands of wounded?
He is in enemy territory. Does he just write them off?
 
This idea that Lee should have dug in and somehow forced Meade to attack is a true fallacy.

You are Robert E Lee. You are deep inside enemy territory with a poor supply situation against an already superior army, both in numbers and firepower, and you have no reasonable hope of reinforcements arriving with the near certainty that Meade will receiving substantial reinforcements given time.

Given the forces Lincoln held back Lee has no hope of successfully attacking DC.

You have embarked on a dangerous strategic risk in the hopes of a victory in the east while, by maintaining the ANV at full strength, all but ensuring a massive Confederate defeat at Vicksburg with a decline in the Confederate position in eastern Tennessee virtually certain to follow the Union victory at Vicksburg and subsequent redeployment of Union forces.

By this point Lee surely knew Vicksburg would fall soon and that the 30,000 Confederate soldiers were not going to escape.​

The one thing you absolutely can not do is dig, thereby ending pressure on much Union territory which would be threatened by a mobile ANV, crippling your own vital foraging efforts, allow the Union time to enjoy and consolidate the imminent triumph at Vicksburg while permitting Meade to laugh as he sits back nearby and brings in every man and gun available until your supply position collapses and you must flee with a demoralized army in the face of a more powerful pursuit force.
 
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