Lee trapped after Antietham or Gettysberg

67th Tigers

Banned
I’m afraid McClellan’s own report on the battle disagrees with you. On April 7th, 1862 he claimed he was directly facing 100,000 Confederates. By June 25th, in a letter to the US Secretary of War, McClellan said he was directly facing 200,000 Confederates.

No he said there were 200,000 Confederates in theatre; he was right. He was up against about 100,000 of them.

So how is this rate ‘extremely rapid’ when McClellan does it and ‘very slow’ when Jackson does it?

McClellan moved his first Corps by verbal orders almost immediately on receiving the information.


That is a very interesting source, though. It says the Union Army used about 30 wagons per 1000 men. McClellan wanted to raise that to 40 wagons per 1000 men, still notably less than your numbers. Meigs pointed out Napoleon used only 12 wagons per 1000 men.

Yet in another thread you insisted McClellan during The Seven Days had 50,000 men and 5,000 wagons. That’s about 100 wagons per 1,000 men. Care to explain your numbers?

Half reading sources?

The whole reason McClellan had to abandon half his wagons is he didn't have the men to drive them.
 
If you run through the battles in the Peninsular Campaign and Confederate casualties for them it turns out like this:

Battle of Yorktown - 300
Battle of Williamsburg - 1,682
Battle of Etham's Landing - 48
Battle of Drewry's Bluff - 15
Battle of Hanover Court House - 930
Battle of Fair Oak's - 6,134

Assuming Johnston started the campaign with an effective force of around 30-40,000 men and managed to concentrate enough manpower to take his strength to around 50-60,000 that means that he would have lost 2,975 men before Fair Oak's and as a result of Fair Oak's he would have lost over the course of his campaign 9,109 men.

This means that when Lee takes command after Fair Oaks he inherits an Army that is either below 50,000 men or close to that mark.

By the time Lee launches into his Seven Day's battle's he had recieved the majority of the 50,000 reinforcements and his Army numbers around 92,000 men.

The Confederate Casualties in the Seven Days are as follows:

Battle of Oak Grove - 441
Battle of Beaver Dam Creek - 1,484
Battle of Gaines' Mill - 7,993
Battle of Garnett's & Golding's Farm - 438
Battle of Savage's Station - 473
Battle of White Oak Swamp - 15
Battle of Glendale - 3,673
Battle of Malvern Hill - 5,355

That mean's that of his 92,000 man Army Lee lost 19,872 men. So any of the reinforcement arriving to the ANV from the start of those battles would likely only be used to replace the casualties in Lee's force.

McClellan, on the other hand started the Peninsular Campaign with a force of around 121,500. Union Casualties for the Peninsular Campaign are as follows:

Battle of Yorktown - 182
Battle of Williamsburg - 2,283
Battle of Etham's Landing - 194
Battle of Drewry's Bluff - 24
Battle of Hanover Court House - 355 (top estimate 397)
Battle of Fair Oak's - 5,031

So McClellan started out the Peninsular Campaign with 121,500 mean but lost, at most, 8,111 men.

He started the Seven Days battles with aroun 104,100 and his casualties for the campaign are as follows:

Battle of Oak Grove - 626
Battle of Beaver Dam Creek - 15,631
Battle of Gaines' Mill - 34,214
Battle of Garnett's & Golding's Farm - 189
Battle of Savage's Station - 1,038
Battle of White Oak Swamp - 100
Battle of Glendale - 3,797
Battle of Malvern Hill - 3,214

McClellan therefore lost 58,809 men.

Over the course of the Peninsular Campaign and the Seven Days McClellan's maximum strength never exceeded 121,500 and his losses were together, at it's highest possible mark, 66,920.

The maximum strength of the Confederate forces opposing him was around 92,000 and its combined losses from both Johnston and Lee's time in command were 28,981.

When facing Joe Johnston McClellan did outneumber his adversary by a huge margine simply because Johnston could not get Davis to bring together the force needed to oppose McClellan's whole Army but when facing Lee the odds were more even than it is generally assumed.
 
6,837 (894 killed, 3,107 wounded, 2,836 missing or captured)

Sorry. Your right. I got the numbers wrong. So to correct it McClellans losses in the Seven Days were:

Battle of Oak Grove - 626
Battle of Beaver Dam Creek - 15,631
Battle of Gaines' Mill - 6,837
Battle of Garnett's & Golding's Farm - 189
Battle of Savage's Station - 1,038
Battle of White Oak Swamp - 100
Battle of Glendale - 3,797
Battle of Malvern Hill - 3,214

With a total loss of 31,432 and with his losses in the Peninsular he lost a total of 39,543 at a top estimate, which does make a significant difference to my original figures.
 

67th Tigers

Banned
Sorry. Your right. I got the numbers wrong. So to correct it McClellans losses in the Seven Days were:

Battle of Oak Grove - 626
Battle of Beaver Dam Creek - 15,631
Battle of Gaines' Mill - 6,837
Battle of Garnett's & Golding's Farm - 189
Battle of Savage's Station - 1,038
Battle of White Oak Swamp - 100
Battle of Glendale - 3,797
Battle of Malvern Hill - 3,214

With a total loss of 31,432 and with his losses in the Peninsular he lost a total of 39,543 at a top estimate, which does make a significant difference to my original figures.

Sorry to do it again:

Beaver Dam Creek: 361 (49 killed, 207 wounded, 105 missing)
 
Sorry to do it again:

Beaver Dam Creek: 361 (49 killed, 207 wounded, 105 missing)

Again your right and I'm wrong. So revision again:

McClellans total losses for the Seven Days battle was 16,162 and total losses including the Peninsular Campaign amount to 24,273

Unless you find somewhere else where I messed up.
 

67th Tigers

Banned
Again your right and I'm wrong. So revision again:

McClellans total losses for the Seven Days battle was 16,162 and total losses including the Peninsular Campaign amount to 24,273

Unless you find somewhere else where I messed up.

That looks right. In both cases you'd listed PFD at the engagement, so I suspect it's just a copy and paste error.

As you know, I have an interest in the relative strengths in these battles, and find 104,100 rather high. I believe that is the number he had under command though.

Livermore gives the following on the Seven Days:

SEVEN DAYS’ BATTLES, JUNE 25--JULY 1, 1862.
UNION ARMY.
Effectives engaged:91,169
Killed, 1734. Wounded, 8062. Total, 9796. Missing, 6053.
Hit in 1000 = 107
Hit by 1000 = 216

CONFEDERATE ARMY.
Effectives in Army of Northern Virginia July 20: 60,639
Losses in the Army of Northern Virginia June 25-July 1: 18,852
Effectives in Ewell’s and Jackson’s divisions: 15,990
Total engaged: 95,481
Killed, 3478. Wounded, 16,261. Total, 19,739. Missing,875.
Hit in 1000 = 207
Hit by 1000 = 102

Livermore is lucky in that all the CS commanders gave their musket strength (except RH Anderson and Featherston, and the cavalry and artillery). He is less lucky in the Union Army, and is using the PFD, deducting 7% for non-effectives. Thus he's overestimating the Union strength more than Confederate (but is trying to be consistant at least).
 

67th Tigers

Banned
That looks right. In both cases you'd listed PFD at the engagement, so I suspect it's just a copy and paste error.

As you know, I have an interest in the relative strengths in these battles, and find 104,100 rather high. I believe that is the number he had under command though.

Livermore gives the following on the Seven Days:

SEVEN DAYS’ BATTLES, JUNE 25--JULY 1, 1862.
UNION ARMY.
Effectives engaged:91,169
Killed, 1734. Wounded, 8062. Total, 9796. Missing, 6053.
Hit in 1000 = 107
Hit by 1000 = 216

CONFEDERATE ARMY.
Effectives in Army of Northern Virginia July 20: 60,639
Losses in the Army of Northern Virginia June 25-July 1: 18,852
Effectives in Ewell’s and Jackson’s divisions: 15,990
Total engaged: 95,481
Killed, 3478. Wounded, 16,261. Total, 19,739. Missing,875.
Hit in 1000 = 207
Hit by 1000 = 102

Livermore is lucky in that all the CS commanders gave their musket strength (except RH Anderson and Featherston, and the cavalry and artillery). He is less lucky in the Union Army, and is using the PFD, deducting 7% for non-effectives. Thus he's overestimating the Union strength more than Confederate (but is trying to be consistant at least).

So
(U:C)
Ratio of starting strength:0.955:1
Ratio of final strength: 1:0.994
Ratio of casualties: 1:2.015
Ratio of casualties and missing: 1:1.301

Implied CEV using case most favourable to Lee (which is actually the best measure): 1.32 in the Union favour (i.e. roughly 3 Yankees had the same combat power as 4 Rebs).

Livermore on Williamsburg:

WILLIAMSBURG, MAY 4, 5, 1562.
UNION ARMY.
Effective strength,” estimated at 93 per cent. of the number &‘ present for duty,” which is assumed to be 34 of the number present for duty in 3d and 4th corps: 40,768
Killed, 456. Wounded, 1410. Total, 1866. Missing, 373.
Hit in 1000,45. Hit by 1000,39.

CONFEDERATE ARMY.
Effective strength,* May 21 1862, of the divisions of Longstreet and Hill, and the brigades of McLaws, Kershaw, and Stuart: 30,120
Add loss May 4,5 . . . . . . . . . . . 1,703
Total engaged . . . . . . . , . . . 31,823
Killed and wounded, 1570, Missing, 133.
Hit in 1000, 49. Hit by 1000, 59.

Fair Oaks:

FAIR OAKS, MAY 81, JUNE 1, 1802.
UNION ARMY.
24 3d, and 4th corps present for duty May 31: 51,543
deduct 3d corps cavalry, 751, and 8 regiments and 5 batteries, estimated at 5848, not engaged . . . . -- 6,599
= 44,944
Effectives estimated at 93 per cent: 41,797
Killed, 790. Wounded, 3594. Total, 4384. Missing, 647.
Hit in 1000,105. Hit by 1000,137.

CONFEDERATE ARMY
Effective strength of Smith’s, Longstreet’s, and Hill’s divisions, May 21: 35,559
Effective strength of Huger’s division (3 brigades), estimated: 6,257
Total effective: 41,816
Killed, 980. Wounded, 4749. Total, 5729. Missing, 405.
Hit in 1000, 137, Hit by 1000, 105.
 
Well "the Young Napoleon" refers to his resemblance of Louis Bonaparte (aka Napoleon III), who McClellan was ISTR acquainted with.

Interesting theory.


Pity someone forgot to tell that to McClellan. :D

mcclellan.jpg
 
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