Lee surrenders after Gettysberg

WI retreat were cut off and Lee was unable to get his men back to Virginia and surrendered rather than face total defeat.

Does Richmnd fall by October?

Is this the end of the war?

How deos it effect reconstruction?
 
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WI retreat were cut off and Lee was unable to get his men back to Virginia and surrendered rather than face total defeat.

Does Richmnd fall by October?

Is this the end of the war?

How deos it effect reconstruction?

Richmond probably falls before October as I don't see where Davis can get the troops to stop it. Its largest army is gone and the huge Washington garrison is freed up. The CSA will move the capital to somewhere else and try to fight on. It will fail and the war will be over by early 1864 as I don't see where the troops to stop Meade could come from. Lincoln will be in charge of reconstruction instead of Johnson which I doubt changes it too much but could make it somewhat more radical.
 

mowque

Banned
Richmond probably falls before October as I don't see where Davis can get the troops to stop it. Its largest army is gone and the huge Washington garrison is freed up. The CSA will move the capital to somewhere else and try to fight on. It will fail and the war will be over by early 1864 as I don't see where the troops to stop Meade could come from.

This works pretty well. The CSA just can't assemble another army that quickly to really save Richmond. They'll be heavy fighting in some impromptu trenches, probably, but the outcome will never be in doubt.
 
Agreed, in "Brotherhood and Baseball" with a Union win at Chancellorsville followed by getting Spotsylvania first, the Union whittles Lee down till he surrenders weeks later. Richmond falls but the Confederacy still had fight left in it - Chattanooga hadn't even fallen. With Lee being surrounded a couple months later morale will be worse in the CSA but victory will still come by early '64 for the Union.

I see REconstruction as being without the mistakes Johnson made - I think LIncoln is much mroe willing to stop the Kan before it starts, for instance, and even that won't be as bad becasue there will be 12-18 months less of the major destruction which occurred int he South. One butterfly I noted in researching is that the father of the guy who wrote the book which inspired "Birth of a Nation" died in Early's raid on D.C. - that doesn't happen here or in my TL, so he grows up differently with a different idea on what happened, too; the "Lost Cause" idea might still be around but in a much different form come the early 1900s.

Back to REconstruction, the last 12-18 months of war increased Northern animosity quite a bit. I think LIncoln puts his foot down to eliminate theBlack Codes but in states where there is moer of an attempt to do things constructively on their own (like in Louisiana with Governor Hahn) there won't be the pressure to send Federal troops like in OTL.

You also don't need a fusion with the Democrats; chances are Lincoln can win easily without putting Johnson ont he ticket. He might still go with Grant, who was a Democrat before the war - Grant would have to make some other state his domicile since he lived in Illinois right before the war, but that wouldn't be hard for a general to do, and he was only there for a short time.
 
Richmond probably falls before October as I don't see where Davis can get the troops to stop it. Its largest army is gone and the huge Washington garrison is freed up. The CSA will move the capital to somewhere else and try to fight on. It will fail and the war will be over by early 1864 as I don't see where the troops to stop Meade could come from. Lincoln will be in charge of reconstruction instead of Johnson which I doubt changes it too much but could make it somewhat more radical.

Okay, some thoughts here.

1) Why is Lee surrendering vs. "total defeat"? Surrendering his whole army is total defeat - he's going to fight like the Devil himself to prevent that.

2) Which will do a number on the AotP.

3) "huge Washington garrison"? Barring the heavy artillery regiments (which could be converted back to infantry the way Grant did in 1864), the Washington garrison has been stripped to below the minimum of safety to reinforce the Army of the Potomac.

4) Confederate troops: Not counting bits and pieces from the ANV - say, the 15th Virginia Cavalry Cavalry - which would be drawn to to whatever force is assembled, Richmond has the following: http://ehistory.osu.edu/osu/sources/recordView.cfm?Content=045/1067 (Scroll back a couple pages to see what Ransom's division is made up of)

Call it 12,000 regular troops, plus Corse's brigade (1,100 men), and 2,400 Local Defense Troops, plus odds and ends.

5) Remember point #2? If the Army of the Potomac has 50,000 men, counting the useful elements of the reinforcements it would be getting quickly and allowing for units returning home, I would be impressed.
ps.

Of course, there's also something around 25,000 usable field troops in 4th and 7th Corps, and 8th Corps if kicked into motion can probably spare another couple divisions.

But all in all, unless Lee's army is completely killed/captured/incapacitated/deserted, its surviving pieces can fall back on Richmond and still be a tough nut to crack for a while. Obviously the Confederacy will lose faster than OTL, but not "by October".
 
Okay, some thoughts here.

1) Why is Lee surrendering vs. "total defeat"? Surrendering his whole army is total defeat - he's going to fight like the Devil himself to prevent that.

2) Which will do a number on the AotP.

3) "huge Washington garrison"? Barring the heavy artillery regiments (which could be converted back to infantry the way Grant did in 1864), the Washington garrison has been stripped to below the minimum of safety to reinforce the Army of the Potomac.

4) Confederate troops: Not counting bits and pieces from the ANV - say, the 15th Virginia Cavalry Cavalry - which would be drawn to to whatever force is assembled, Richmond has the following: http://ehistory.osu.edu/osu/sources/recordView.cfm?Content=045/1067 (Scroll back a couple pages to see what Ransom's division is made up of)

Call it 12,000 regular troops, plus Corse's brigade (1,100 men), and 2,400 Local Defense Troops, plus odds and ends.

5) Remember point #2? If the Army of the Potomac has 50,000 men, counting the useful elements of the reinforcements it would be getting quickly and allowing for units returning home, I would be impressed.
ps.

Of course, there's also something around 25,000 usable field troops in 4th and 7th Corps, and 8th Corps if kicked into motion can probably spare another couple divisions.

But all in all, unless Lee's army is completely killed/captured/incapacitated/deserted, its surviving pieces can fall back on Richmond and still be a tough nut to crack for a while. Obviously the Confederacy will lose faster than OTL, but not "by October".

1) OP says that Lee surrenders which means fight or no fight he is going down in total defeat.
2) Yes, but far less than it will effect the CSA. The South just lost its number one army
3) With the ANV gone there is no reason for the heavies as there is no chance for the CSA to get anywhere near DC. The heavies will be converted to infantry as in OTL only sooner.
4) Even by your calculations Richmond will be guarded by 40,000 regulars at the maximum.
5) OTL Meade started with 93,000 men, lost about 23,000 men so had 70,000 men left. Assume half again as many casualties for Meade than OTL you are at 58,000 men. Add in the Washington Garrison and you are quickly well over 60,000 men. The CSA will have at most 40,000. Desertions for the Union will plummet and those in the CSA will soar. The CSA Army is doomed so many Union men will want to be in on the kill and many Confederate troops will desert because they won't want to throw their lives away on a clearly lost cause.
 
1) OP says that Lee surrenders which means fight or no fight he is going down in total defeat.

Yes. However if he fights first, that's going to blow holes in the AotP.

2) Yes, but far less than it will effect the CSA. The South just lost its number one army

True, but if the AotP is heavily damaged, there aren't THAT many field forces to send out.

3) With the ANV gone there is no reason for the heavies as there is no chance for the CSA to get anywhere near DC. The heavies will be converted to infantry as in OTL only sooner.

Judging by their performance OTL, they look more menacing than they really are.

4) Even by your calculations Richmond will be guarded by 40,000 regulars at the maximum.

Not counting troops brought up from the Carolinas or the like, yes. Presumably if we factor those in we have to start asking what the Federal troops in those areas do, and I don't have a list of the Federal forces in South Carolina in July handy.

5) OTL Meade started with 93,000 men, lost about 23,000 men so had 70,000 men left. Assume half again as many casualties for Meade than OTL
you are at 58,000 men. Add in the Washington Garrison and you are quickly well over 60,000 men. The CSA will have at most 40,000. Desertions for the Union will plummet and those in the CSA will soar. The CSA Army is doomed so many Union men will want to be in on the kill and many Confederate troops will desert because they won't want to throw their lives away on a clearly lost cause.

Arguably closer to 80,000. But let's say 93,000 as the high end.

Meade is losing half again as many at a minimum if he's doing a fight-to-the-finish style thing where Lee surrenders because resistance is futile.

He's also losing three thousand men from just Stannard's brigade's enlistments expiring. OTL they left in the second week of July, and were mustered out two weeks later.

Meanwhile the heavies add what, 30,000 men? Tops? All green as grass despite having been mustered in between the fall of '61 and the fall of '62.

So Meade has - at most - around a five to two advantage in manpower, assuming no Confederate troops from the Carolinas or the like, and assuming that a third of the ANV's starting strength escapes (maybe wounded, but not killed/captured).

I think you're overestimating the "want to be in on the kill/don't want to be killed in a lost cause" factor - even if the ANV has been gutted the Confederacy still controls a fairly good sized amount of its territory - ignoring Texas.
 
i dont think Lee would throw away the lives of his men so easily.

say he gets caught ay Williamsport in Maryland. sure he might put up a half decent resistance but he's not going to fight to the finish. Lee loved hi men more than the Cause and after Pickett's Charge he's very careful with throwing them around.

i dont think he'd try some last stand bullshit if he knew the jig was up. if he couldn't run like he did after Peatersburg and Richmond fell, he'd just stack his arms, furl his colors and surrender his sword.
 
Yes. However if he fights first, that's going to blow holes in the AotP.



True, but if the AotP is heavily damaged, there aren't THAT many field forces to send out.



Judging by their performance OTL, they look more menacing than they really are.



Not counting troops brought up from the Carolinas or the like, yes. Presumably if we factor those in we have to start asking what the Federal troops in those areas do, and I don't have a list of the Federal forces in South Carolina in July handy.



Arguably closer to 80,000. But let's say 93,000 as the high end.

Meade is losing half again as many at a minimum if he's doing a fight-to-the-finish style thing where Lee surrenders because resistance is futile.

He's also losing three thousand men from just Stannard's brigade's enlistments expiring. OTL they left in the second week of July, and were mustered out two weeks later.

Meanwhile the heavies add what, 30,000 men? Tops? All green as grass despite having been mustered in between the fall of '61 and the fall of '62.

So Meade has - at most - around a five to two advantage in manpower, assuming no Confederate troops from the Carolinas or the like, and assuming that a third of the ANV's starting strength escapes (maybe wounded, but not killed/captured).

I think you're overestimating the "want to be in on the kill/don't want to be killed in a lost cause" factor - even if the ANV has been gutted the Confederacy still controls a fairly good sized amount of its territory - ignoring Texas.

If the ANV surrenders the Battle of Gettysburg went worse than OTL, quite likely much worse. Very likely he doesn't have the manpower to cause more than 1/2 again as many casualties. I don't see him doing much more than that and I could easily see him doing much less.

The heavies aren't going to be the best troops to be sure but they can be used as a reserve or man the trenches when the veterans are sent to the attack.

If the CSA sends reinforcements the USA will send its own as well. Not as many will be needed from wherever they are pulling their troops.

In OTL even after the Wilderness, and Cold Harbor etc. (None of which happens in TTL) Union recruitment went way up after Atlanta and Lincoln's re-election for that very reason and CSA desertion became disastrous. If Lee's army surrenders the handwriting is on the wall and at the very least desertions will go way up and I think Union recruitment gets a big boost as well.
 
If Meade manages to capture the entire ANV, he becomes a bigger hero than Grant ever was. He'll stay in command of the AotP for a while, but Lincoln might offer him command of all the Union armies at some point (even if it is after the war is over).

Jefferson Davis likely orders another Confederate Army to march to Richmond ASAP. What's the most likely force? Army of Tennessee under Bragg? If so, Rosecrans likely takes Atlanta around the same time the AotP makes a bid for Richmond.

Where does that leave Grant? To take Mobile or go up the Red River? At this point, the entire Confederate front is likely to collapse.

The most interesting changes are what happens after the war. Grant does not have reputation of being the savior of the Union. Meade becomes the undoubted hero, but does he have any political ambitions?

With the war over so quickly, it's unlikely the Republicans will need to run a National Union ticket, and Andrew Johnson is not VP. Who is? Does Hancock eventually win the Presidency as a Democrat (I assume his actions under Meade in both Gettysburg and the cutting off of Lee makes him a bigger hero than he was IOTL).
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Jefferson Davis likely orders another Confederate Army to march to Richmond ASAP. What's the most likely force? Army of Tennessee under Bragg? If so, Rosecrans likely takes Atlanta around the same time the AotP makes a bid for Richmond.

I imagine he would strip some divisions from Bragg in Tennessee, some from Johnston in Mississippi, and some from Beauregard in South Carolina and patch them together in the Richmond defenses (or perhaps on the North Anna line). It probably wouldn't amount of more than 40,000 troops and it would take them some time to assemble.

One wonders who would command them. Probably Beauregard, I'd guess.

The Army of the Potomac would not have emerged unscathed and would probably have suffered heavier losses ITTL than it did IOTL. It might not be until September that a serious offensive towards Richmond can get underway. Whether it would be successful before the campaign season came to an end is open to debate.

As you point out, stripping these other theaters of so many troops seriously weakens the Confederacy on those fronts. I think we would certainly see the Unionists curbstomp the Rebels in Mississippi and Georgia and we might also see Charleston fall.

No matter what, the war is over by late 1863 or early 1864.
 
I imagine he would strip some divisions from Bragg in Tennessee, some from Johnston in Mississippi, and some from Beauregard in South Carolina and patch them together in the Richmond defenses (or perhaps on the North Anna line). It probably wouldn't amount of more than 40,000 troops and it would take them some time to assemble.

One wonders who would command them. Probably Beauregard, I'd guess.

The Army of the Potomac would not have emerged unscathed and would probably have suffered heavier losses ITTL than it did IOTL. It might not be until September that a serious offensive towards Richmond can get underway. Whether it would be successful before the campaign season came to an end is open to debate.

As you point out, stripping these other theaters of so many troops seriously weakens the Confederacy on those fronts. I think we would certainly see the Unionists curbstomp the Rebels in Mississippi and Georgia and we might also see Charleston fall.

No matter what, the war is over by late 1863 or early 1864.

Pretty much how I see it. With Lee captured the war is over by Apr 1864 at the very latest.
 
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