Lee Harvey Oswald's Bullets Miss JFK

Hypothetical: Lee Harvey Oswald's bullets miss JFK and Kennedy survives Dallas. Would Kennedy win a second term and, if so, what would Kennedy's second term be like? Would he had pulled out of Vietnam? Would the world be different today?

Side Note: Stephen King actually has a recent book out on this topic, but because it has alot of science fiction elements in the book, it doesn't really deal with these issues realistically.

Another Side Note: On that fateful day in Dallas, Kennedy wore an extra strong brace because he had injured his groin the day before, cavorting with some girlfriends. This brace held his body in a stiff, rigid posture, making him an excellent target for Oswald. Had there been no extracurricular activities the day before, Oswald might have missed or non-fatally injured him with only the first bullet.
 
Kennedy started escalating Vietnam so all this talk of pulling out is utter BS best case is that he keeps it small and uses the Marines as the counter insurgency force that they were built to be.
 
Kennedy might become less popular than in OTL after a second term, depending on how he handles Vietnam. There'd probably me much less of a "mythical" feeling of his presidency. The 1964 presidential election might become slightly closer as well.
 
FWIW, the big Kennedy experts on this site are: Roguebeaver, Emperor Norton I, and hcallega. All three generally say Vietnam would be averted without JFK's death, and I, for my part, agree with them -- Kennedy had real doubts about Vietnam, and indicated he was planning on downsizing American presence there following his re-election.
 
I agree Kenndy would have pulled out after his re-election. See the book, "Vietnam If Kennedy Had Lived: Virtual JFK" by James Blight.
 

DaveH

Banned
I'm certain Kennedy would have run again,and won a little bigger than he did in 1960.The Republican ticket would likely have been Scranton-Goldwater,but like '96 and '08 the nomination would have been to honor respected Republicans and the party would just have been going through the motions. Nixon? Box-office poison.He lost two campaigns in a row.LBJ? Off the ticket if JFK can get the public to sit still for the Veep being the President's brother.He probably can,given the sympathy/survivor factor

Very likely the FBI catches Oswald before the Dallas PD and Jack Ruby can eliminate him,and Oswald gets waterboarded into telling everything he knows.His Russian-Cuban connections are thoroughly exposed,and other agents are caught who expose the Moscow/Havana connections within the Civil Rights Movement,which while not thoroughly discredited,loses most of its support,and its offspring,the nascent peacenik movement,gets no further than similar movements did in WW2. Alabama Governor George Wallace has a field day saying "I told you so".

Viet Nam? I dunno.Diem was done away with just before Dallas and JFK is firmly in control of whoever he picks to lead South Viet Nam.JFK faced down Castro and Nikita Kruschev just a year before,and is likely to be REALLY PO'd at an apparent Soviet/Cuban sponsored attempt on his life.He'll be in no mood for any of Ho Chi Minh's BS.Ho wisely decides not to borrow trouble and stays out of the way while the corruption and the local fellow travelers get rounded up by the South Vietnamese security forces,aided by a heavily reinforced US military presence.Viet Nam's situation gradually settles into a Korean-style standoff.

Q for all on a related topic.Does JFK's survival butterfly Beatlemania?
 
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Norton is very tired children, so this is all you get for now...or you can wait for someone else to come around and make with all the smart talk.

Kennedy started escalating Vietnam so all this talk of pulling out is utter BS best case is that he keeps it small and uses the Marines as the counter insurgency force that they were built to be.

Nein. Kennedy didn't start escalating Vietnam; he did escalate Vietnam, but not in the way I think you're assuming. Vietnam was a different thing in Ike and Jack's time. It was a civil war on the other side of the world, a nation maybe 70% of the American public didn't pay attention to, where we had advisers and were sending aid and supplies. We weren't in an active combat role. Kennedy was wary of making the United States assume an Americanized war in Vietnam, and consistently refused to go in that direction when he was indeed pressured throughout his administration.

To play the PC game, most Presidents would have avoided Vietnam as a war, at least from what I know. LBJ didn't because he was ignorant of foreign policy issues and thought that if he sent in the Marines, he could shock the Communists into surrender (he did have serious doubts, but it was most definitely part of his thought process that the US military could possibly win this thing). Vietnam is not difficult to avoid as an America war. When polls were first conducted on American opinions of Vietnam in 1964, only 30-some percent of Americans paid any attention to it, and of that most expected Korean war style ceasefire or the fall of Saigon. Kennedy's idea was never to abandon South Vietnam, so don't think that; it was to begin to withdraw advisers (for fear of the war becoming something America would be a combat participant in), while maintaining aid and supply of South Vietnam.

I'm certain Kennedy would have run again,and won a little bigger than he did in 1960.The Republican ticket would likely have been Scranton-Goldwater,but like '96 and '08 the nomination would have been to honor respected Republicans and the party would just have been going through the motions. Nixon? Box-office poison.He lost two campaigns in a row.LBJ? Off the ticket if JFK can get the public to sit still for the Veep being the President's brother.He probably can,given the sympathy/survivor factor

He wouldn't win by a little bigger than 1960; he'd win by a lot bigger. 1964 would be a blow out. JFK was astoundingly popular, and the GOP had no chance of coming close. I really wish the idea of "JFK lives, so the GOP could win or would get a lot of votes" would go away because it seems to be a thing and it's not true. JFK will clobber the Republicans in 1964. Its not going to be 1960.

The Republican ticket would likely be Goldwater for president just as it was in the OTL. As was brought up in my 1964 alternate VP thread recently, Scranton as his VP would be unlikely due to Scranton condemning Goldwater.

LBJ is likely not dropped; that was never brought up seriously. Kennedy would never, ever try to get Bobby to be his VP for 1964.

Very likely the FBI catches Oswald before the Dallas PD and Jack Ruby can eliminate him,and Oswald gets waterboarded into telling everything he knows.His Russian-Cuban connections are thoroughly exposed,and other agents are caught who expose the Moscow/Havana connections within the Civil Rights Movement,which while not thoroughly discredited,loses most of its support,and its offspring,the nascent peacenik movement,gets no further than similar movements did in WW2. Alabama Governor George Wallace has a field day saying "I told you so".
I'm not sure I understand you. The capture of LHO went down in a day. He ran away, people saw him shoot Tippet, some guys chased him if memory serves, and he tried to hide in a theatre. The police were called, came in, and arrested him. No one knew what the Hell was going on that day. The FBI can't teleport agents there to arrest Oswald before the normal authroities do.
Your conspiracy synopsis frankly leaves me with a reaction of "What the? I don't even..." because it is very much incorrect. Oswald wasn't tied to Cuba or the USSR. He was a prick who wanted to be something because he was a nothing with an unloving and emotionally abusive mother. Sad upbringing, but the fact is he grew up to be a prick and a small, smug little man. He became a Communist because it made him something special. He went to the Soviets because he wanted to be part of the worker's paradise that existed in his mind from that thing that made him feel different. He went there, the Soviets suspected he was CIA but found out he wasn't, and then tried to see if they could make him an agent for the USSR, but found out he was a dud. Eventually, he got bored and moved back to America. That was the whole of his Soviet ties. He was a flunky who didn't matter and worked normal jobs, and it ate away at this little jerk who wanted to be a special lil' flower. So he wanted to make his mark, and shot Kennedy, the guy leading the nation persecuting Cuba. He was a nothing. He was just a pissed off nobody who wanted to be a somebody. He became a Communist to be something special and something people would look twice at. He went to the USSR with romantic notions of his revolutionary self only to be bored by the reality of Communism. He returned to supreme disappointment in America that no reporters were there to talk to him because no one cared about him. He created his Fair Play For Cuba Committee because he took that same self romanticism that made him go to Russia, and used it to support ending embargo on Cuba, the Communist satellite in the western hemisphere. He attempted to kill General Walker because he fancied himself a left wing hero taking down a fascist. He killed Kennedy on one level because JFK was blockading Cuba and was the leader of the United States, but the real reason was by killing Kennedy, this normal guy could be a somebody and get fame and get everyone to look at him and during the trial he could make a soap box for his ideology. He was a drip, and the good thing is Ruby, another average guy and not connected to the mob or whatever else the Conspiracy people think, killed him before he could even enjoy his fame. The bad thing is that by Oswald not showing what a smug little man he was to the public and not going through the trial, it opened the door for almost 50 years of silliness.

Viet Nam? I dunno.Diem was done away with just before Dallas and JFK is firmly in control of whoever he picks to lead South Viet Nam.JFK faced down Castro and Nikita Kruschev just a year before,and is likely to be REALLY PO'd at an apparent Soviet/Cuban sponsored attempt on his life.He'll be in no mood for any of Ho Chi Minh's BS.Ho wisely decides not to borrow trouble and stays out of the way while the corruption and the local fellow travelers get rounded up by the South Vietnamese security forces,aided by a heavily reinforced US military presence.Viet Nam's situation gradually settles into a Korean-style standoff.

Q for all on a related topic.Does JFK's survival butterfly Beatlemania?
I covered Vietnam above as much as I feel like covering it now, so I'll just point to that. No, he wouldn't be, because there wasn't one. JFK would be smart enough to know Khruschev and Castro weren't behind this. Kennedy was in talks with Castro about rapprochement for God sake; ending the embargo and getting Cuba out of the Soviet hemisphere and neutralized. Castro has no reason to be involved. And I doubt this affects the North Vietnamese. It's not like JFK turns into the dad who gets home after overtime and mom has to tell the kids not to act up or daddy will beat the Hell out of them. And even if that were the case, the North wouldn't care. They were hardened nationalists prepared to go up against anything, from Marines to Atomic bombs. It's simply incorrect to think that the North would be intimidated by aggression, because that was America's thought when it made Vietnam its war and it did not work out well.

I can try to give more detail on Vietnam at a later date, or someone else may beat me to it.

On pop culture, including Beatlemania, it all goes down. You're getting Hippies and all that. It was already in full force and going to break through. Await Kennedy growing sideburns in '68.
 
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1964 Civil rights Act & 1966 Voting Rights Act

I was wondering if Kennedy survived Dallas, do you think the 1964 Civil Rights Act (and something like the 1966 Voting Rights Act) would have passed? JFK apparently had a terrible legislative record and Lyndon, according to some people, was not interested in helping Kennedy get things passed.
 
I was wondering if Kennedy survived Dallas, do you think the 1964 Civil Rights Act (and something like the 1966 Voting Rights Act) would have passed? JFK apparently had a terrible legislative record and Lyndon, according to some people, was not interested in helping Kennedy get things passed.

Well you have both bullets missing Kennedy, correct? In that case, there is a good chance that the CRA gets bogged down in the House as the Rules Committee drags its feet letting it come to a vote, in turn making it easier for Senate Dixiecrats to run down the clock.

Now if, on the other hand, only the second bullet missed Kennedy, meaning he's still seriously injured from the first one -- well, this may give the nation enough of a scare to give JFK the kind of boost in popularity that gives the CRA House expedition that resulted from the actual assassination OTL still occur. If that happens, I'm of the opinion Jack would make good use of his VP to get the CRA passed the Senate.
 

Stolengood

Banned
The bullet that hit him in the throat, you mean? Didn't that one pass through his vertebrae, or am I mistaken? He would've been paralyzed for life, if that were so...
 
The bullet that hit him in the throat, you mean? Didn't that one pass through his vertebrae, or am I mistaken? He would've been paralyzed for life, if that were so...

No, it didn't go through the spine. It went through the torso to the right of the spine I believe, though I'd have to get back to you on that as I am again very groggy.
 

DaveH

Banned
That's where it went OTL.According to the OP's parameters it missed and Kennedy is uninjured.
 
I firmly believe that Kennedy would've won reelection. Whether it was against Goldwater or Rockefeller, I think he would've won. That being said, there were many rumors that Jack was dropping LBJackass from the ticket in '64 due to corruption. So are we dropping LBJackass or do do we keep him on the ticket? Either way, Jack's second term probably looks something like this:








END OF KENNEDY'S 1st Term 1963-1964
  • Due to the attmept on his life, Kennedy urges Congress to introduce and pass a gun control bill. They do and he signs it in December 1963.
  • Civil Rights Act of 1964 is passed by Congress, President Kennedy signs it.
  • Voting Rights Act is passed by Congress, President Kennedy signs it.
  • President Kennedy mobilizes ground troops to Vietnam in mid to late 1964 - Heeding the advice of President Eisenhower, President Kennedy orders the air force to bomb the Viet Cong supply lines. Major gains are made in the war and Siagon doesn't fall - U.S. declares victory by 1967 and deals a huge blow to the Soviets and the Cold War.
KENNEDY'S SECOND TERM
Renames the "New Frontier" the "Golden Society"







1965
  • President Kennedy continues Civil Rights legislation by ordering the arrest of Ku Klux Klan members
  • Immigration Act of 1965 is passed by Congress, President Kennedy signs it.
  • The Medicare Program is passed by Congress in 1965, President Kennedy signs it. President Kennedy issues the first two cards to President Truman and his wife Bess.
  • The Social Security Amendment Act, creating Medicaid in 1965 is passed by Congress, President Kennedy signs it.
  • Education Act of 1965 is passed by Congress, providing federal funding for public and private eduction, President Kennedy signs it.
  • War On Poverty Act of 1965 is passed by Congress, signed by President Kennedy. This act creates programs such as Head Start, Food Stamps, and Work Study.
1966
  • President Kennedy, noticing that welfare has become a problem in the US appeals to GOP senators in Congress by calling for Welfare Reform. A bill is introduced and shot down by the Democrats.
  • Congress passes a farm bill calling for a universal health care program for farm famillies with children under the age of 18, a fixed milk and crop price to help farmers make money in off years. President Kennedy signs it.
  • President Kennedy calls for the first drawdown of troops in Vietnam, decreasing the number from 50,000 to 25,000, Congress approves the measure.
  • With the economic growth stagnant, President Kennedy urges Congress to pass a tax reform bill, Congress passes the Tax Reform Act of 1966, creating five tax tables at 50% at the Top, and 11% at the bottom and raising Capital Gain Rate from 25% to 30%, President Kennedy signs the bill which takes effect for 1967.
1967
  • The North Vietnamese Army surrenders to the ARVN and US forces after 2 1/2 years of fighting. Vietnam becomes a democratic state known as the Republic of Vietnam.
  • President Kennedy urges Congress to pass a modernized version of the Marshall Plan to help the Republic of Vietnam rebuild after the war. Congress passes the measure.
  • President Kennedy calls for more funding for NASA, Congress passes the measure. President Kennedy states "we will be on the moon by the end of the decade."
  • A Universal Health Care Bill is introduced to Congress and is heavily supported by President Kennedy. Congress rips it apart and passes watered down version of the bill. President Kennedy, with much disapproval of the watered down bill vetoes it - the veto is overturned and passes anyways.
1968
  • The economy slips into a mild recession prompting Congress to raise taxes. President Kennedy counters with a tax cut aimed at the middle class stating "the best way to stimulate the economy, is through consumer spending." Congress ignores the President's request and raise taxes. The economy rebounds a couple months later.
  • Apollo 11 and its crew lands on the moon, fulfilling the dreams and hopes of President Kennedy. In a statement the President said: "We have made it possible through technological discoveries to achive this mission."
  • President Kennedy urges Congress to pass an Environmental Awareness Bill. A bill calling for teach in's about how to save the environment is submitted, but put on the back burner until 1970.
  • First Lady Jacqueline Kennedy announces that her and her husband are seperating after she catches the President and an unidentified woman in the act. "There has always been speculation, and I've never questioned him, but now, I can no longer turn a blind eye."
1969
  • President Kennedy leaves office with a high approval rating from the American people. Due to the seperation of him and the First Lady, the ratings are not as high as they were during most of 1968.
Now the question is does Nixon still win in 1968? With no division in the Democratic party who gets the nomination in 1968?
 
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Very nice. I'll need to think about what else was going on other than My worrying about being drafted and getting my ass shot off in the jungle.
 
He wouldn't win by a little bigger than 1960; he'd win by a lot bigger. 1964 would be a blow out. JFK was astoundingly popular, and the GOP had no chance of coming close. I really wish the idea of "JFK lives, so the GOP could win or would get a lot of votes" would go away because it seems to be a thing and it's not true. JFK will clobber the Republicans in 1964. Its not going to be 1960.

You're not kidding: Kennedy averaged a 70.1 approval rating throughout his term, with a low of 56%. With numbers like that, JFK could win re-election in 1917... in Russia.

That being said, I think I do side with the "only LBJ, after Kennedy's death, could have gotten the Civil Rights Act of 1964 passed" side of the argument; Johnson's popularity throughout his first term was over 74%.
 
This one of the great imponderables and the halo that has descended around JFK makes it difficult to conduct a nuanced discussion. I like Clark Clifford’s analysis in Counsel to the President. Clifford wrote that the advisors who advised Johnson to escalate the war were all holdovers from the Kennedy administration, so you have to assume they would have given Kennedy the same advice. What would Kennedy have done? Clifford said that JFK had a much more detached view than LBJ who often talked about how the Vietnamese would do this to Lyndon Johnson. So he might have acted differently, but as Clifford said we will never know.

When JFK was assassinated there were about 15,000 United States troops in Vietnam. Two years earlier he had said "Now we have a problem making our power credible and Vietnam looks like the place." We also know that the Kennedy administration tacitly supported the coup against Diem only days before JFK’s death. So we have two reference points that suggest JFK was committed, at least to some level, to supporting the South.

Would JFK handle the Gulf of Tonkin incident differently? The domestic political climate with Goldwater heading the Republican ticket would have been the same. If Kennedy wanted to proceed differently this would have been a logical point of departure from history. His personnel military record was a lot stronger than LBJ’s and in many ways Goldwater’s which would have made it easier for him to avoid the political flack. I have doubts that JFK would have done nothing but he might have limited himself to a single retaliatory strike, sort of like Reagan in Lybia.
 

bguy

Donor
The Republican ticket would likely be Goldwater for president just as it was in the OTL. As was brought up in my 1964 alternate VP thread recently, Scranton as his VP would be unlikely due to Scranton condemning Goldwater.

Would Kennedy be able to get civil rights legislation passed in '64? If the legislation gets bottled up by a southern fillibuster then Goldwater doesn't end up voting against final passage which means he won't have mortally offended the moderate wing of the GOP in the same way he did OTL. The country's political atmosphere will also be much less toxic without a president having just been assassinated, so Scranton may not feel the same need to condemn Goldwater that he did OTL.

That said I agree with you that Kennedy will easily win reelection no matter who the Republicans run.

LBJ is likely not dropped; that was never brought up seriously.

What if the Bobby Baker scandal gets legs? LBJ isn't going to be able to hush it up like he did OTL since here he's still only the Vice President, and it would certainly give JFK good reason to dump Johnson from the ticket.
 
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