Lee Atwater lives

Realpolitik

Banned
Does this mean that GHWB could win in 1992?

Personally, I have my doubts-I find Atwater's influence somewhat overrated in 1988 and I think would be in 1992 as well. But I'm willing to entertain other theories. Atwater after all was the only one in the GOP (other than the elderly Richard Nixon, which really doesn't shock me given his feelings on Bush I and Clinton as political operators) to take Bill Clinton seriously before it was 1992 and it was too late.

https://www.nytimes.com/books/first/c/conason-president.html


I find the idea of an Atwater behind GWB and Karl Rove pretty terrifying though. Or Atwater during the Clinton Wars, though I don't think he could get Dole elected either. People were happy with Clinton, Dole was old, and Clinton was perfectly OK with fighting dirty in a way that no other Democrat since LBJ in '68 was willing to.
 
I think the '92 election would've been closer, but Clinton still would've won. While conservatism was arguably the dominant ideology at that point, the GOP was in the white house for 12 years, people wanted a change. Plus while the economy was out of recession by the time of the election, people were still hurting economically and this to hurt Bush as the economy was still pretty decent in '89 when he took office. You also have to consider that Clinton, unlike Dukakis or any Democratic nominee since LBJ was willing to fight just as dirty as the GOP, so it would've been harder to take down Clinton (An Atwater run campaign VS. a Carville run campaign would've been something worth seeing though). Plus you gotta factor in Perot.

As to what Atwater does after '92, I think he keeps a relatively low profile through the Clinton years, he'd run a few congressional campaigns which could mean 1994 is an even bigger blowout for the GOP, and they possibly make congressional gains in '96 and '98 depending on whether or not they go after Clinton over Monica the way they did. Atwater doesn't work for Dole or any other GOP primary candidate in 1996 as it was pretty weak so Clinton still gets re elected.

Atwater may run W's campaign in 2000, or advise Rove so he may be a little more active during the Bush years (assuming Bush still "wins" ITTL). After Bush's presidency ends, he's kind of in the same position Rove is in now, a has been.
 
The Bush campaign in 1992 ran on a strategy Lee Atwater would have wholeheartedly approved of in the main, and maybe even in parts thought was a little over the top and counter-productive, so no, nothing would change in 1992.

Maybe I'm doing him a disservice though: maybe Atwater would be bright enough to realise things had moved on since 1988 and try to bang the requisite heads together. That's a longshot though, usually people grasp for the old solutions that worked. Nothing's going to change the dysfunctionalism of the Bush WH (or interlinked campaign) or the state of the economy, or Bubba though. Bush would lose.
 
Last edited:
Top