What if Lee attacks Meade at his preferred position at Pipe Creek rather than Gettysburg?
How screwed is Lee?
If we assume Lee will beat his head against a wall, then of course he'll take heavy casualties.
Otherwise it's how much attacking convinces him he should stop attacking.
We are assuming Gettysburg level arrogance here. So what do you think his plan would be?
What if Lee attacks Meade at his preferred position at Pipe Creek rather than Gettysburg?How screwed is Lee?
What if Lee attacks Meade at his preferred position at Pipe Creek rather than Gettysburg?How screwed is Lee?
If Lee attacks at Pipe Creek it would likely be Fredericksburg in reverse. Gettysburg was a near-run thing and the Army of the Potomac was badly bloodied in winning its victory. Pipe Creek would have been a much more clear-cut Union victory. Perhaps more importantly, while the AotP had been so beaten up at Gettysburg IOTL that no corps was really ready to launch a vigorous counter attack or pursuit, this probably would not be the case after a Confederate repulse at Pipe Creek.
This begs the question, though, as to whether Lee would have attacked at Pipe Creek. Yes, he had developed a sense of superiority and believed his troops could do anything (the record certainly was evidence of that). But he wasn't stupid. He was drawn into battle against his will on the first day at Gettysburg, which turned out to be a clear Southern victory in which two Union corps were smashed. He attached what he believed to be a rattled and perhaps unconcentrated foe the second day and came close to achieving victory. It was only on the third day that he succumbed to true hubris and launched his doomed assault.
Of course, Lee had done this before, as at Malvern Hill. He would also do it again after Gettysburg, such as the foolish final assault on the Brock Road position on the second day of the Battle of the Wilderness. There is no doubting that he was a general of overwhelmingly aggressive instincts who often displayed recklessness. Yet he had also demonstrated occasions of caution, as when he decided against launching a counter attack at Fredericksburg out of understandable fear of the Union artillery across the river. And after Malvern Hill, he didn't charge on down the river and attack McClellan at Harrison's Landing, nor did he consider assaulting the defenses of Washington after his victory at Second Manassas.
So, in thinking about whether Lee would have assaulted Meade on ground his enemy had chosen and which afforded great advantages for the defense, we have to weigh the fact that Lee was by nature an extremely aggressive general and had developed a superiority complex against the fact that he was, despite these liabilities, a very able general. I think whether he would have attacked Meade at Pipe Creek is a dubious proposition at best.
I think it very likely Lee would have attacked Pipe Creek, he thought his troops were invincible which is shown by the fact that he fought at Gettysburg at all.
Exactly. The man had begun to buy into his own myth, which was a fatal mistake.
The second days wasn't even close to succeeding. It would have taken considerable time to roll canon up and reinforcements would have arrived long before anything was set up on the Round Tops even if lost.
I think it very likely Lee would have attacked Pipe Creek, he thought his troops were invincible which is shown by the fact that he fought at Gettysburg at all.
And he wasn't alone; even Longstreet, generally known as the voice of reason among the senior generals in the Army of Northern Virginia, threw 20,000 men at 12,000 well-dug in men of the Army of the Ohio at Knoxville in November, 1863, more than four months after Gettysburg, in an assault that even the rebels compared to Pickett's Charge.
Losses were heavy, especially in a brigade-sized assault on Fort Sanders, one of the larger fortified points in the US line; the rebels suffered more than 800 casualties (dead/wounded/captured), including the brigade commander and two of the four regimental commanders; a third was seriously wounded, losing an arm.
US losses amounted to 20.
And that's Longstreet - four months after Gettysburg and 16 months after Malvern Hill.
Worth noting is the US commanding general in all this?
Ambrose Burnside.
Best,
Oh, absolutely. But the important point is that Lee thought it had been close. The perception of reality is more important than reality, most of the time.
Perhaps, but it's worth remembering that Lee didn't want to fight at Gettysburg, which was a classic "meeting engagement" on the first day. He didn't want to fight at all until his army was concentrated. This suggests that he might not have fought if he thought the situation wasn't to his liking
I think Burnside used telegraph wire, around tree stumps and picket posts, as an obstacle - first instance of this?
Let's not Hood's total screw up at Franklin either. He thought he could win there, than push onto Nashville. Cut Sherman's supply lines then push east to link up with Lee.