Lebanon's phœnix- 1982-1984

[Chris S]

Hmmm...having observed this site for a little while and looking through old TLs, I've noticed that certain topics will get flamers (like the Turkish-Armenian "issue" and almost anything to do with Israel and the Palestinians). I have no wish to start to a flame war, especially for my first thread, so please no inflammatory remarks (or I'll ask Ian, who appears to be the local deity, to use his powers and lock the thread).

Now, in June 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon (for whatever reason you wish to believe, I don't really care about the reason). The stated aim was to expel the Palestinians from Lebanon, but along the way the Israelis also seemed to get caught up in some grandiose idea of re-moulding Lebanon and establishing a state with which it could sign a peace treaty with and which would have a government that if not a puppet of Israel, would at least be friendly. The war was unusual for Israel though in being a lengthy campaign and one in which the odds were overwhelmingly in their favour. That being said, the Israelis still managed to get themselves bogged down in Lebanon for a long time and never accomplished any of the "state building" goals. But what if they had been more successful, building on the goodwill won with the Lebanese in the south by kicking out the PLO (The Lebanese even threw rice on the Israeli tanks)?
Now I have no wish to repost the events from the start of the invasion up to the POD. So all interested persons may check the following websites:

http://www.cedarland.org/war.html (scroll through the floating menu to find the 1982 Israeli Invasion, although pretty much everything from "Syrian Intervention" onwards makes for good background reading and a good source of PODs)
http://www.adl.org/ISRAEL/Record/lebanon.asp

Also if anyone happens to have the following book, or access to the book, "The Arab-Israeli Wars: War and Peace in the Middle East from the War of Independence through Lebanon" by Chaim Herzog, then I would highly recommend reading the section on Operation "Peace for Galilee", from which I drew the POD (pg. 351). And though Herzog is an Israeli the book is pretty unbiased and got good reviews.

So here is the POD and TL:

June 6, 1982-July 1982 -same as OTL (see references above).

July 14, 1982 (POD)- Lebanese government issues call for the removal of all foreign forces in Lebanon. [In OTL this call would go unheeded, but here...]

July 16, 1982- Some of the opposition Labor Party members and the Communists, having heard of the Lebanese government's plea and being wary of Ariel Sharon and Shimon Peres' actual goals [since the IDF had long since passed the expected 25 mile limit in Lebanon and was now outside Beirut], put forward a motion in the Knesset (Parliament), which passed 64-33 and which explicitly required for the IDF [Israeli Defence Force] to be withdrawn from Lebanon within 1 week of any evacuation of the PLO [Palestinian Liberation Organization] from Beirut (and thus from Lebanon, since the PLO was now holed up in Beirut). The government motion also specifically forbade the IDF from entering West Beirut during or after any PLO evacuation, but allowed for IDF entry before any evacuation dependent upon the circumstances....

August, 1982- Elections take place in Lebanon and Bashir Gemayel is elected President.

Late Aug. - Sept. 7, 1982- The PLO and the Syrians are evacuated from Beirut under the supervision of the Multi-National Force (MNF). In accordance with the Israeli Government bill, the IDF began withdrawing its soldiers from September 4th (by which time most of the PLO had left Beirut for the rest of the Arab world) and by September 12, 1982 Israeli had withdrawn all its troops from Lebanon, but still mounted daily patrols and reconnaissance flights into Lebanon. All of the former Israeli occupied zone, south of the Awali River was handed over to major Sa'ad Haddad's Free Lebanon Army, while everything north of the river (and into East Beirut) was handed over to the Phalangists. Most captured PLO weapons (including tanks) and some of the more dated Israeli equipment was also handed over to the Free Lebanon Army.
As the Israelis withdrew they were cheered and rice thrown on their vehicles as they (the Israelis) were still thought of as liberators for expelling the PLO. In order to deal with the increased area under their control, the Army of Free Lebanon (or Free Lebanon Army), began recruiting Shi'ites and even some Druze, especially in the areas the Israelis passed through or which experienced PLO misrule.

September 14 1982- After coming from a rally in Baabda (just to the southeast of Beirut) which celebrated his victory in the elections, the expulsion of the PLO and Israeli withdrawal and from visiting his sister after the rally, Bashir Gemayel arrived late for his meeting in Beirut at the Phalangist Staff HQ. Outside, the assassin phones his sister inside the building to warn her to flee before the bomb goes off. The would-be assassin's sister flees the building screaming, and as Bashir had only just arrived inside, he managed to turn and escape (just) as a 200kg explosive device goes off inside the building. Bashir survives, but is injured and suspects that either the Syrians and/or opposition Christian Lebanese are responsible.

September 15, 1982- The Phalangist chief military commander had been killed in the assassination attempt (in OTL he survived and Bashir died) and the some members of the Phalangist militia in anger carry out massacres, kiing up to 400 Palestinian refugees and Sunni Lebanese (as an act of "revenge"). The IAF [Israeli Air Force], carried out retaliation for the assassination attempt by bombing Syrian garrisons near Zahle (in the Bekaa Valley) and along the Beirut-Damascus Highway.

September 18, 1982- The near assassination caused Bashir Gemayel to look and lean toward Israel even more and he decides to accept Israeli offers fro a peace treaty, but is resolute that he will not sign it, if some of Israel's more unacceptable terms are not removed. Security around Bashir Gemayel was tightened, especially at the official swearing in/office ceremony....

September 23, 1982- Bashir Gemayel takes over as President of Lebanon from Elias Sarkis. At the ceremony he vowed to try and restore Lebanon's sovereignty.

September 29, 1982- Bashir calls for all foreign armies to leave Lebanon and states his willingness to sign peace and trade treaties with any country that complies.

October, 1982- The Israelis and Lebanese begin negotiations over a peace treaty and call upon the mediation of the United States. Negotiations continu in October, though there is a break for Ramadan/Yom Kippur. During October, two more assassination attempts are carried out on Bashir, both fail. Bashir accuses the Syrians and the PLO and claims that some PLO fighters have slipped back into West Beirut from overseas.

November 14-28, 1982- The IAF carried out a bombing campaign of suspected and known PLO positions in West Beirut, Tripoli (in Lebanon) and Sidon.

December 2, Israeli-Lebanese negotiations stall over Haddad's "Free Lebanon" (south and east of the Awali River) as the Phalangists would like Haddad's power and writ to be reduced. Israel insists on the Lebanese government accepting Haddad's current position and allowing him official status. Haddad himself came in to the negotiations and after re-affirming his allegiance to the Phalangist government (and thus his subordination to it), the Phalangists relented. By the end of December, the Israelis and Lebanese again take a break for Chanukah/Christmas and agree to restart negotiations in January.

January 8, 1983- Negotiations continue and as they do, Israel continues its Good/Open Fence policy of trading with southern Lebanon. In Lebanon, south and east of the Awali River, the results of this policy are clear with Israeli products (e.g. ice cream with Hebrew packaging) being seen in shops and Israeli merchants operating throughout the region. In northern Israel the results are also visible in the form of Lebanese goods, especially farm produce, being on sale in supermarkets, Lebanese workers picking fruit on farms in northern Israel and in the mixed Arabic and rudimentary Hebrew of the Lebanese merchants in the area (who mirrored the Israeli merchants in Lebanon and their Hebrew-Arabic creole/pidgin). Some Israeli products even became available in Beirut, although Israeli merchants stayed out of Beirut as it was still dangerous.

February 15, 1983- An agreement is reached and the peace treaty is signed. Bashir manages to push it through parliament, which ratified it on March 2, 1983. Israel's Knesset had ratified it on February 27, 1983. With this, Israel and Lebanon had a final peace treaty. The agreement had only managed to be passed because it was not conditional upon the withdrawal of other (i.e. Syrian) forces but only Israeli forces (which had withdrawn from 1982). That clause (stipulating ratification if other foreign forces withdrew) had been dropped in January when it became clear that Syria would use that clause to kill the agreement.....

will continue this TL later.

 

[das]

I don't agree with you about Israel's motivation, but I'll leave it at that as it barely matters.

Great TL otherwise.

 

[aktarian]

Well, problem is that it fails to adress most important reason, that is demographic changes. Maronites, while ruling class, were slipping in %. And in your TL Israel still throws it's support behind them anyway.

Oh, and Lebanon will be under Arab economic blockade due to trading with Israel. something that nearly hapeend in OTL.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

I don't really know if we should try too hard on making this POD work but I guess I'll give it a try.

1) With the new regime in power, the flight of Lebanese Christians, Maronite or otherwise, is reversed.

2) The Palestinian refugees are expelled over a period of several years, in reprisal for the actions of the PLO and other factions in the 1970s. The Shiite percentage in particular is dramatically reduced.

I don't think it would take much effort to imagine Israel going along with this one.

Hmmm, how about Syria's Assad, on the ropes after being driven from Lebanon, signing a peace treaty with Israel where he regains most or all of the Golan PLUS those portions of Lebanon that France stole from Syria in the first place?

 

[Chris S]

I don't agree with you about Israel's motivation, but I'll leave it at that as it barely matters.

Great TL otherwise.

Well, you see that's why I said, the real motivation doesn't matter, since I knew that if only threw in what my sources have then somebody at some point in time is going to dispute it and there would be an endless argument. As you rightly said, for the purposes of the TL it barely matters.

Thanks.

Well, problem is that it fails to adress most important reason, that is demographic changes. Maronites, while ruling class, were slipping in %. And in your TL Israel still throws it's support behind them anyway.

Oh, and Lebanon will be under Arab economic blockade due to trading with Israel. something that nearly hapeend in OTL.

Ah, but the TL was not meant to be perfect, since life is hardly ever (if at all) perfect. Israel would probably have thrown it's support behind the Maronites anyway as they at least were vehemently opposed to them in the past (see the cedarland link). Anyway, I didn't wish to try anything too radical, just to see what would happen if the Israelis had withdrawn quickly as many in Israel and elsewhere think they should have done so as to keep the goodwill they earned (across sectarian lines no less, with both Christians and Muslims) in Lebanon.

Hmmm...Lebanon under Arab economic blockade/boycott? Sounds interesting. Although considering the sorry state that she was in around that time, it probably wouldn't have made much of a difference...might even have helped if it meant less guns were allowed into the country. Also, the area under Syrian/Arab League occupation/protection or control would probably not be placed under blockade, so Arab goods would still arrive in Tripoli for instance and across the Syrian border. The Syrians might even welcome it since trade across the border would increase (i.e. smuggling with the Syrians probably getting a percentage) since Arab goods are forbidden in every port from Jounieh south to Tyre.
But wasn't Egypt under a similar blockade due to her peace with Israel? So maybe Egypt would trade with Phalangist Lebanon..

I don't really know if we should try too hard on making this POD work but I guess I'll give it a try.

Why not? Is it that bad? I mean c'mon it's my first TL. Thanks for trying though

1) With the new regime in power, the flight of Lebanese Christians, Maronite or otherwise, is reversed.

2) The Palestinian refugees are expelled over a period of several years, in reprisal for the actions of the PLO and other factions in the 1970s. The Shiite percentage in particular is dramatically reduced.

I don't think it would take much effort to imagine Israel going along with this one.

Hmmm, how about Syria's Assad, on the ropes after being driven from Lebanon, signing a peace treaty with Israel where he regains most or all of the Golan PLUS those portions of Lebanon that France stole from Syria in the first place?

Well, the flight of the Maronites would only be reversed as long as the Phalangists are in power...and Lebanese politics is apparently more fluid than water.

The expulsion of the Palestinian refugees would be slow I agree, and would only occur as long as the Phalangists are in power. However, most likely the Phalangists would search far and wide for countries to take them and would continue the policy of refusing to naturalize the refugees by giving them permanent residency, much less citizenship. The first ones to be expelled would be those directly connected/involved in activities with the PLO.

Assad's Syria, whilst driven from most of Lebanon, still controlled (in OTL) and thus controls (in the ATL) the northern Bekaa Valley and northern and northeastern Lebanon. The Israeli-Lebanese peace treaty though would be salt in the wound of the major defeat of the Syrian army and air force in Lebanon (losing one of the largest air battles in the Middle East along with most of their aeroplanes that engaged the IAF, whilst the IAF as usual came out with very few casualties). This could cause Syria to look even more inwards and become more repressive at home, or it could cause dissent since Assad would have pretty much lost all face in Lebanon to Israel. If Assad pulls through though (which I find likely), I doubt he would sign a peace treaty with Israel (though he may, since it is possible and if he gains parts of Lebanon).
Hey, didn't Israel also annex the Golans the year before in 1981?

 

[swamphen]

1) With the new regime in power, the flight of Lebanese Christians, Maronite or otherwise, is reversed.

2) The Palestinian refugees are expelled over a period of several years, in reprisal for the actions of the PLO and other factions in the 1970s. The Shiite percentage in particular is dramatically reduced.

3) AH.com board members flock to Lebanon to pick up chicks.

 

[raharris1973]

Just a thought -

Maybe a quicker withdrawal before they get into a big tit for tat with the Shiites does not result in a state that maintains any type of formal agreement, but does have the end result of having the PLO kicked out (beyond a nuisance presence of small pro-Syrian factions) and the Israelis getting back to their border without a big Hizbollah focused on them. To avoid Arab boycott Lebanon signs no formal treaty but does what it can to impede a full PLO reinfiltration?

Net result- best of all worlds for them - no 18 year Hizballah war, but no PLO there at its 1970s and early 1980s strength.

 

[aktarian]

2) The Palestinian refugees are expelled over a period of several years, in reprisal for the actions of the PLO and other factions in the 1970s. The Shiite percentage in particular is dramatically reduced.

Why would shiite % be reduced? Shi'ias were Lebanese, not Palestinian refugees.

 

[Chris S]

March 3, 1983- In Sidon, 1,200 Palestinian refugees were slaughtered by Phlangist militiamen who claimed that PLO gunmen were in the camps.

Angered by the Agreement between Lebanon and Israel, Syria announced the foundation of the National Salvation Front (NSF). This coalition comprised many sects, including the Druzes led by Walid Jumblatt; Shias led by Nabih Berri; Sunni Muslims led by Rashid Karami; Christian elements led by Sulayman Franjieh; and several smaller, Syrian-sponsored, left-wing political parties. The NSF then set about governing the areas under the control of Syria.

March 7, 1983- Outside Damour a battle had developed between the Phalangists (and the allied Shia-Christian Free Lebanon Army or FLA) and the PLO. As the day drew on the Syrian Army attempted to join the battle, but as Syrian brigades began moving down the Beirut-Damascus Highway, the IAF began bombing them (after being alerted by reconnaissance flights in the area) and so the Syrians were prevented from intervening.

March 8-19, 1983- Protected from Syrian interference, the Phalangists/FLA alliance managed to overcome the PLO and rout them. They were helped in this measure also by the IAF which over the period of the battle continually bombed known PLO positions.

April 18, 1983- A terrorist truck bomb destroys half of the US Embassy in Beirut killing 60 people (or which 17 were American); Islamic Jihad immediately claimed responsibility. Since the start of 1983 Christian controlled Lebanon had been gradually re-descending into chaos with car bombs, planted bombs and kidnappings become ever more frequent and with the Druze militia beginning to openly challenge the Phalangist/FLA alliance and other militias began to emerge or re-emerge. PLO fighters still remained in the country, although only in the Syrian controlled areas, but some were slowly re-infiltrating the area under the (ever loosening) control of the Lebanese government.

May 1983- Dissatisfied with Arafat's command and their defeat at the hands of the Israelis, many Palestinians within the PLO ranks wanted an investigation into the disastrous plans and command structure during the fighting. Some factions within the PLO even wanted to remove Arafat from power. Syria was also concerned with Arafat's political gestures towards other Arab states and even the United States. Syria worried about being sidelined by a potential Jordanian-Arafat alliance and was not willing to entertain an independent PLO, especially one under the leadership of a man that they felt had let them down by not fighting the Israelis to the bitter end. Therefore in the Syrians began to support those factions opposed to Arafat. On May 9 1983, an order issued by Fatah's Colonel Sa'id Musa Muragha (Abu Musa) called upon all Fatah units in the Bekaa to disregard future orders from the Fatah leadership. At first, the Fatah Central Committee belittled the disobedience but later, when some 2,000 of the 10,000 guerrillas that had were in Syrian-controlled Lebanon joined the rebellion, it became apparent that the mutiny was gaining strength, it cut funds and logistical support to rebellious units. The rebels then seized Fatah supply depots in the Bekaa on May 25, and in Damascus on May 28. By late June, fighting erupted between loyalist and rebel units in the Bekaa, with the latter taking control of the town of Majdal Anjar and hence the Beirut-Damascus highway from Shtura to the frontier.

In Christian-controlled Lebanon, bouyed by their success at Damour and enticed by the prospect of PLO infighting in the Bekaa (and possible Syrian distraction), the Phalangists attempted to intervene in the Bekaa and establish control over the town of Zahle on May 27th. The Syrian Army, however countered and defeated the Phalangists. As Israel was initially not in favour of the attempt to take Zahle before the Lebanese government had become strengthened, the IAF did not intervene (being under orders only to attack the Syrians if the attempted to push out of their zone of control into the Phalangist ruled areas). On May 29th President Bashir Gemayel was assassinated and his brother Amin Gemayel was sworn in as President. Amin had seen what being too closely tied to either Syria or Israel could do and endeavoured to try to walk a path that was more independent of Israel. He didn't denounce or repudiate the Agreement with Israel, nor stop trade, but he did place a few restrictions on the trade with Israel and called for reconciliation with the rest of the Arab world. Although the Arab League blockade was not lifted it was eased considerably.

June 1983- When the Palestinian rebellion erupted against the Fatah command, Syria and Libya tacitly, then openly, supported the rebels. When the Fatah leadership condemned this, Arafat himself was deported from Syria to Tunis on June 24, surviving an assassination attempt on his way. On June 27, the Syrians assassinated Saad Sayel, the commander of pro-Arafat forces in Lebanon. Pro-Syrian units of al-Sa'iqa, the PFLP-GC, PLA, and even Syrian Army units, backed Abu Musa's forces.

With the failure of Palestinian and Arab mediation efforts, loyal Fateh units were gradually forced out of their positions in the Bekaa northwards to the Nahr al-Barid and Baddawi refugee camps near Tripoli. By this stage just over 4,000 guerrillas remained loyal to Arafat.

Within Christian-controlled Lebanon and Syrian-controlled Lebanon, events were only spiralling further towards the anarchy that had characterized Lebanon since 1975. Terrorist activity resumed, and between June and August 1983, at least twenty car bombs exploded throughout Lebanon, killing over seventy people. Lebanon's prime minister narrowly escaped death in one explosion. Targets included a mosque in Tripoli; a television station, hospital, and luxury hotel in Beirut; and a market in Baalbek.

In Beirut, President Amin again called upon the Syrians to leave, but as usual the Syrians ignored the call. Amin's relationship with Sa'ad Haddad of the FLA were also more tense and turbulent than was his brother's. Haddad's FLA meanwhile no longer had total control over southern Lebanon, with Amal (a Shia militia) and Druze militias contesting his authority in a number of places. Still Haddad's militia (which was officially part of the Lebanese Army since the Agreement) was the largest and most popular in the area and was representative of the area having Shi'ite, Christian, Druze and Sunni members, with the Christians forming the majority, just slightly ahead of the Shi'ites.


July 1983- Israel's citizens have thus far seen the IDF and IAF involvement in Lebanon as fairly successful. The IDF's role had been limited and though some commentators and political analysts put forward the view that the IDF should have stayed on in occupation of Lebanon as a bargaining chip to get Syria to withdraw and to bring stability to Lebanon, many other analysts said just the opposite and in TV programmes and in journals, newspapers and magazines had speculated that had staying on in Lebanon would have presented Israel and the IDF with their own "Vietnam" and that the situation would not be much different except that many Israeli soldiers would lose their lives in a protracted occupation and the goodwill earned by expelling the PLO would have been squandered. Since the Israeli withdrawal, the IAF had been quite active over Lebanon and thus far had not lost a single plane (and most likely would not in the near future).

Now however, with the prospect that Lebanon's government would lose control of the country, Ariel Sharon (still Defence Minister and now much lauded in this ATL for a successful invasion and with no Sabra and Shatila to tarnish his reputation) convinced the Israeli Knesset (and indeed Israeli public opinion) of the need to intervene again, if only on a limited scale (especially after being talked out of a larger intervention by his new deputy Moshe Arens, who pointed out that "the success of Peace for Galilee was due as much to its limited nature as to is boldness").

Thus on July 9th, the IDF and IAF launched a joint operation into Lebanon. Using AH-1 Cobras and some transport helicopters, with IAF F-15s and F-16s providing air cover, Israel landed some 500 IDF soldiers into Sidon and Tyre to battle confirmed PLO militants who had been able to hold off the FLA. Within 3 days and after a loss of 56 soldiers the IDF had managed to overcome all the PLO positions and began evacuating their soldiers by sea. The AH-1 Cobras and the IAF however, continued to attack the few remnant PLO militiamen in conjunction with the FLA for a further 2 days.

September 1983- The Druze militia attacks on Phalangist/FLA positions have increased and in some areas the Druze militias now have total control.On September 16, 1983, Druze forces massed on the threshold of Suq al Gharb. For the next three days the army's Eighth Brigade commanded by an officer called Michel Aoun (who would become in 1988 the Lebanese prime minister) fought desperately to retain control of the town. The tiny Lebanese Air Force was thrown into the fray, losing several aircraft to Druze missile fire. United States Navy warships (in accordance with their mandate under the MNF II to help the Lebanese government restore its authority) shelled Druze positions and helped the Lebanese Army hold the town until a cease-fire was declared on September 25, on which day the battleship U.S.S. New Jersey arrived on the scene.
Also, in late September Arafat himself returned to Tripoli (in Lebanon) to face his opponents. He sneaked in under the nose of the Syrians, shaving off his beard for the first time in years and wearing a smart suit and sunglasses.

October 1983- Fighting erupted around the two refugee camps of Nahr al-Barid and Baddawi near Tripoli.

On October 23, 1983 truck bombs went off simultaneously outside the US Marine barracks and French compound killing 2 US Marines who had tried to stop the truck (viewing it as suspicious) and 3 French soldiers (under similar conditions). While the MNF II (deployed to help re-establish Lebanese government authority in the vicinity of Beirut and a few other cities) stayed on after the bombing, this incident, plus the continued instability of Lebanon, convinces the USA and other MNF II members (France, Italy, etc.) that the mandate of the MNF II is gradually become impossible given the circumstances and by February 1984 the USA (followed by France and Italy would pull out all its troops from Lebanon.

November 1983- On November 3 the Palestinian rebels backed by Syrian and even Libyan forces launched a major offensive against Arafat, capturing Nahr al-Barid on November 6. After a brief lull in the fighting, a second offensive captured Baddawi on November 16. Loyalist forces retreated to Tripoli. Syrian artillery that had been bombarding the camps and occasionally the civilian population of Tripoli now focused all of its efforts on the city and the PLO Loyalists there. Anti-Arafat forces also bombarded Tripoli and threatened to storm the city.

The military pressures on Arafat were combined with intense Lebanese pressures to leave the city from Rashid Karami and Walid Jumblatt, as well as from the Lebanese right. Only local Sunni fundamentalist leader Said Shaaban and his Islamic Unification Movement militia supported the PLO leader. At the same time, Arab pressures on Syria to halt the attacks were also building from states anxious to prevent the PLO from completely falling under Syrian sway. As a result, Arafat, Syria and the rebels agreed to a Saudi mediated ceasefire agreement on November 25. Under its terms, Arafat would evacuate the city. It was not until December 20, however that the withdrawal took place. Some 4,000 Arafat loyalists evacuated the city by sea to North Yemen, Algeria and Tunisia in Greek ships under the UN flag and with a naval escort provided by France.

 

[Raymann]

I think the barracks bombing would have butterflied out by now. Great TL though, do one better and have Arafat killed. Its a goddamn miricle that he was never assisniated by SOMEONE while he was running the PLO.

 

[Chris S]

Having read up on the barracks bombing I now agree that it would have been butterflied out, since in OTL it apparently was only successful because the suicide bombers used the same trucks as the Syrian army had been using daily to transport supplies to its positions in Beirut (and which would pass the American and French barracks daily, so the Americans and French were used to them). So I edited the post to reflect this (hence butterflying away the OTL bombing).

Arafat assassinated....hmmm..that would be interesting and it is true that it is pretty miraculous that he survived so long. Does anyone have any idea however who would take over the PLO if he had died in 1983-1984?