Assuming Italy still goes under Fascism with Mussolini, I suspect a Kaiserreich would be quite cold towards Italy through the Twenties at least, would France shifted hard right align with Mussolini to counter Germany? And would the British still flatter and flirt with Italy to counter Germany? I could see Mussolini's ambitions chilling relations with the UK by about mid-1930s as he begins to seek glory in Africa, i.e. his Ethiopia adventure. I suspect much depends upon the fate of A-H. If it survives, albeit weak, it must give the CP a looming presence on the continent, but if fractured it dilutes the point of friction to Germany and her relations with the pieces, rump Austria and especially the east. Are we also assuming the Germans have held onto Alsace-Lorraine, or just Alsace, or bargained it to France for a chilly peace? I will assume that Germany surrenders any other territory of France to get a secure Armistice?
My theory is that the "collaborationists" and Vichy government have been painted harshly by a France that prefers to lay all blame at their door just as Petain sought to lay blame for defeat at the "weak" and "decadent" Third Republic. My read is that Vichy was more nationalist and less fascist, I think you had a dose of Nazi sympathizers, but I feel they are a sop to the Nazis and the Vichy leaders were looking at getting out from under the German occupation thumb, no moral high ground, but less black and white. Thus I think any right-wing government is going to be quite French, a messy sort of affair. I would not rule out a DeGaulle or man like him to lead the revitalization of France, a nationalist, someone more like Franco or even Mussolini rather than a Hitler. Sadly though I suspect some xenophobic frenzy will be at play to get the people excited about surrendering liberty.