Leaderless Italy in the later part of WWII

I searched the forum for variations along the lines of the following scenario, but found nothing:

What if Marshal Badoglio and Victor Emmanuel III are killed on 8-9 September 1943 while attempting to flee Rome. Three days later, because of intervening butterflies, the Gran Sasso Raid fails, with Skorzeny killed. Mussolini is evacuated under heavy guard to Brindisi, then Algiers and thence to Britain, where he is imprisoned in the Tower of London. He reportedly befriended Rudolf Hess.

Now, in such a scenario, I understand that the RSI likely wouldn't be formed, as Hitler didn't think highly of the other Italian fascists. So Italy will be under put under a German military government. There will also be much, much more Catholic/Conservative resistance than IOTL, since the Germans killed "their" king. (In fact, it's unlikely that the monarchy would be abolished after the war ITTL.) The Allies will also need to organise their own military government, something for which there was no need IOTL. Finally, I wonder what the military impact of this PoD could be, especially whether it can lead to more territory under Western control at the end of the war.
 
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... The Allies will also need to organise their own military government, something for which there was no need IOTL. Finally, ...

Actually they did implement their plan for military government, at least in part. Since restoration of infrastructure, services, food imports, fuel imports, banking, ect.. depended heavily on the US/Brit resources for the next three years both both were heavily involved in administration alongside the Italians. There also the necessity for keeping martial law in place adjacent to the combat zone. Absent Bagdoglio they'd be in a hurry to set up someone else to handle the Italian side of this dual system. No one wanted the US & British to take on full administrative responsibilities.

This was one of the reasons the Allies went to so much trouble to prop up Free French, Free Belgian, Phillipines, Dutch governments. Full administration was a can of worms they were anxious to get out of.
 
With the death of the king and the capture of Mussolini, no Italian would be in the mood to continue the war. They wouldn't be trusting of royalists or fascists any longer and would likely seek a democratic government immediately. The monarchy would still be abolished because the majority of Italians lost their faith in both the king and Mussolini.

The military occupation would be the same for the Germans as OTL, only Hitler would order far more casualties. He would be LIVID when he discovers that both Skorzeny failed and Mussolini is in Britain of all places. Nazi war crimes in Italy would sky-rocket as the Reich no longer had any reason to give leniency to the Italians. Hitler would order a similar raid to seize the Tower of London and rescue Mussolini AND Hess. It is highly uncertain that it will succeed, but I bet that no high-ranking German will object to such unprecedented rage. Despite Hitler's general contempt for Southern Europeans, he had a genuine respect for Mussolini and styled much of the Nazi practices off of Mussolini's fascist party. Now, both his old lackey and his famed idol are imprisoned together under the British. Considering Hitler's mentality in 1943 and afterwards, London could be find itself under another Blitz, but I sincerely doubt Churchill will kick in. Much is butterflied with this scenario, though.
 
... Considering Hitler's mentality in 1943 and afterwards, London could be find itself under another Blitz, ...

Well, Hitler did order another 'Blitz' on England. The "Baby Blitz" failed to do more than kill off rookie aircrew and eliminate more bombers from from the Lutftwaffes thinning strike fleet. My father remembered the Baby Blitz as a increase in the night time harassment raids & the sound of worn out aircraft engines of the attack groups.
 
Well, Hitler did order another 'Blitz' on England. The "Baby Blitz" failed to do more than kill off rookie aircrew and eliminate more bombers from from the Lutftwaffes thinning strike fleet. My father remembered the Baby Blitz as a increase in the night time harassment raids & the sound of worn out aircraft engines of the attack groups.
That's true.
 
With the death of the king and the capture of Mussolini, no Italian would be in the mood to continue the war. They wouldn't be trusting of royalists or fascists any longer and would likely seek a democratic government immediately.
I don't understand this part of your reply. Neither the Germans nor the Allies have any intention of letting them do that, so what attitude do you suggest they'd adopt until the end of the war?
 
I don't understand this part of your reply. Neither the Germans nor the Allies have any intention of letting them do that, so what attitude do you suggest they'd adopt until the end of the war?
Well the Allies would probably be more supportive of an Italian democracy rather than a monarchy that permitted fascism. And the Germans will likely suppress any kind of opposition in their occupation, as they'd only care about the fate of Mussolini and not any other Italian fascist. So the Allies would impose a rather passive attitude towards the Italian democratic movement and the Germans would outright suppress through the most brutal means.
 
With the death of the king and the capture of Mussolini, no Italian would be in the mood to continue the war. They wouldn't be trusting of royalists or fascists any longer and would likely seek a democratic government immediately. The monarchy would still be abolished because the majority of Italians lost their faith in both the king and Mussolini.

The military occupation would be the same for the Germans as OTL, only Hitler would order far more casualties. He would be LIVID when he discovers that both Skorzeny failed and Mussolini is in Britain of all places. Nazi war crimes in Italy would sky-rocket as the Reich no longer had any reason to give leniency to the Italians. Hitler would order a similar raid to seize the Tower of London and rescue Mussolini AND Hess. It is highly uncertain that it will succeed, but I bet that no high-ranking German will object to such unprecedented rage. Despite Hitler's general contempt for Southern Europeans, he had a genuine respect for Mussolini and styled much of the Nazi practices off of Mussolini's fascist party. Now, both his old lackey and his famed idol are imprisoned together under the British. Considering Hitler's mentality in 1943 and afterwards, London could be find itself under another Blitz, but I sincerely doubt Churchill will kick in. Much is butterflied with this scenario, though.

Given that the monarchists didn't lose by much (and leaving aside the accusations of fraud levied against the victors) with Victor Emmanuel dead and with Umberto having years to consolidate his position as reigning king without his father holding the throne as long as possible and causing all that baggage... well a royalist victory would become quite likely.

I can't really see Hitler launching a raid on London, that seems just a touch ridiculous. I suspect something like the Italian Social Republic would still emerge as a nominally independent state but in practice it would have far less autonomy.
 
Given that the monarchists didn't lose by much (and leaving aside the accusations of fraud levied against the victors) with Victor Emmanuel dead and with Umberto having years to consolidate his position as reigning king without his father holding the throne as long as possible and causing all that baggage... well a royalist victory would become quite likely.

I can't really see Hitler launching a raid on London, that seems just a touch ridiculous. I suspect something like the Italian Social Republic would still emerge as a nominally independent state but in practice it would have far less autonomy.
Fair enough.
 
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