Le Royaume de France

The years between the Third restoration and the death of Henri V would be crucial for the survival of the regime. Given the fact of the constant clashes, it is implied that those are going to be difficult times. However, after his death we would see the consolidation of the liberal, constitutional monarchy.

My question goes far beyond: is this regime going to last to the present day? Ceteris paribus, keeping everything except this turning point, including the results of WWI, the French monarchy has fair chances of being kept until the Nazi occupation. The question that intrigues me still is would it survive the Vichy régime? That would depend upon the role of the royals: if they side with them, they would be thrown out (as happened in Italy). If they, instead, rally resistence forces around them, they will be kept until today.
 
The years between the Third restoration and the death of Henri V would be crucial for the survival of the regime. Given the fact of the constant clashes, it is implied that those are going to be difficult times. However, after his death we would see the consolidation of the liberal, constitutional monarchy.

My question goes far beyond: is this regime going to last to the present day? Ceteris paribus, keeping everything except this turning point, including the results of WWI, the French monarchy has fair chances of being kept until the Nazi occupation. The question that intrigues me still is would it survive the Vichy régime? That would depend upon the role of the royals: if they side with them, they would be thrown out (as happened in Italy). If they, instead, rally resistence forces around them, they will be kept until today.

If the Royal Family were to do what their Nordic counterparts did and head a French government in exile in London then it is possible that they could survive when France is liberated. Monarchs tend to be good stabilising figures anyway so if the king were to march down the Champs-Élysées at the head of the Free French forces it is highly possible that we would see a constitutional monarchy survive to this day.

However, won't the existence of a monarchist France butterfly away WW2 (and indeed, a recognisable WW1) anyway?
 
Not necessarily. One of the causes of WWI was Franco-German rivalry and hardly could I imagine that changing the political régime would have changed that. As for WWII, I do not see how would a monarchy would have stopped Hitler invading France.
 
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