Le Maréchal est Mort!, Alternate Franco-Prussian War

Who Should Enter Alternate Franco-Prussian War?

  • Austria

    Votes: 49 64.5%
  • Italy

    Votes: 25 32.9%
  • Denmark

    Votes: 38 50.0%
  • Great Britian

    Votes: 17 22.4%
  • Russia

    Votes: 15 19.7%

  • Total voters
    76
Prince Napoleon sounds like a very interesting figure. What you mention about Sevastopol especially. I'm certainly gonna try to read more about him and looking into the book Plon-Plon: The Life of Prince Napoleon by Edgar Holt.
I've drawn my knowledge of the character from Michele Battesti "Plon-Plon the red Bonaparte" (Perrin, 2010).

Prince Napoléon experience in the Crimean war was his only concrete experience of war as Napoléon III, ever distrusting a cousin who looked way too much like the first Napoléon (well, a fat version of him, just look at his portrait by Flandrin) and worry of him being his Orléans (mind the Orleanist 'usurpation' from the Bourbons), did his best to keep him away from further field commands of any relevance, as for Italy.
During the war against Russia, he went first through a command in Dobruja before going into Crimea.
There, he distinguished himself at Alma, and maybe at Inkermann (I don't have the book under hand to check), actions immortalized on a painting that was later burned during the Commune I believe.
Seeing the situation at Sevastopol, he had recommended for a direct assault on the city while the Russians hadn't yet completed the fortification but was overruled by other British and French commanders who preferred to settle for a 'proper' siege. Actually, as a Prince and technically the highest ranking French officer after Saint-Arnaud death, he should have become commander of the siege if not for a secret order by Napoléon III appointing Canrobert instead. Prince Napoléon, furious and ever a hot head, took pretext of an illness to leave the siege and return to France.
 
Part 6
Part VI: The Emperor Returns

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On August 20th Napoleon III reentered Paris and thus brought about an end to the Regency. Napoleon thanked Count Palikao for his efforts in mobilizing the Garde Mobile over the past weeks and dismissed him from service. Emile Ollivier was restored to the office of Prime Minister. Empress Eugenie was less than enthusiastic about the Emperor’s return as it ended her defacto rule over the country. Eugenie had also made clear in her letters to the Emperor that she thought his place was at the front leading the army. However, with the evacuation of the bulk of French to Chalons, along with the Emperor’s worsening health, made his presence unnecessary.

The Emperor was effectively ceding the military situation to the opinions of his cousin Prince Jerome Napoleon, Marshal MacMahon, and Governor Trochu. The Prince and Marshal would lead the army at the front while Trochu prepared the city for a siege should this event arise. Trochu began to lay plans for the devastation of railways, bridges, etc. Bringing in the livestock from the countryside for food stuffs, cutting down the trees in Bois de Boulogne for fuel and employing urban laborers to improve the city's defenses. The previous Loire plan was now shelved as the situation looked more optimistic.

Thankfully for the French, the Prussian armies had also halted their westward march. The Prussian armies of Chief of Staff Helmuth von Moltke were operating at the end of long supply lines and we're more focused on keeping themselves feed then marching on Paris. Additionally, Moltke felt that Metz and the other border fortress cities should be reduced before the advance was pressed. If the army were to push on Paris now it would not be able to bring its full force to bare and as standard military practice dictates an attacker should have numerical superiority to the defender.



Note: Decided to stick with Ollivier to keep things smooth and as galileo-034 elaborated upon was removed by less than legal means.
 
What the French civilian pov of war?

I would think the average Frenchman is unhappy about the current state of affairs with French armies being pushed back from the frontiers. The previous July, the press and populace were very excited when French troops entered Prussian territory and some were then calling for a march on Berlin. The last few months would be viewed as a disappointment. On the bright side the French army hasn't been mangled like OTL and the Emperor hasn't been taken prisoner.
 
Part 7
Part VII: Foreign Powers

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Emperor Napoleon III and Queen Victoria

The outbreak of the Franco-Prussian War left Great Britain and Queen Victoria in a difficult position. For the past two decades, the queen had fostered an alliance with France. English and French troops had fought side by side in the Crimean War. Victoria had developed a close friendship with the French Emperor and Empress. However, Prussia was Britain’s historic ally since the time of Frederick the Great and Victoria’s eldest daughter was married to the Prussian Crown Prince Frederick. It was not in England’s interest that these two powers fight a bloody war and the queen had hoped it would come to a swift end.

Tsar Alexander II of Russia was in similar straits to Victoria. Alexander’s mother had been a Prussian Princess, Prussian King Wilhelm was his uncle and he had grown up reading German literature. However, despite his Germanophile nature, Alexander feared the rise of a powerful German state on his western frontier that could one day threaten Russia. This made improving relations with France a natural step, but he had a personal dislike for the nation. Alexander blamed France for the Crimean War and subsequent death of his father Tsar Nicholas. Emperor Napoleon had attempted to smooth things out in 1856, dispatching his half brother Charles de Morny to the Russian court. Morny was able to form a close bond with Alexander, the Russian monarch even attended his wedding to a Russian princess. The untimely death of Morny in 1865 however left a void in two nations relationship. Alexander had traveled to France in 1867 to meet the Emperor in person only to be nearly assassinated by a Polish nationalist. Alexander had always suspected Napoleon of having pro polish leanings and this only hurt the relationship. When the war broke out, Alexander personally sympathized with Prussia but he concluded that it was to Russia’s advantage if neither side gained a clear victory.

Italian King Victor Emmanuel’s sentiments were with the French. He had fought by Emperor Napoleon’s side at the Battle of Solferino and appreciated French support in driving the Austrians from northern Italy. The main issue between the two powers was the French garrison in Rome. Napoleon’s decision to withdraw these soldiers at the beginning of the conflict with Prussia was greatly appreciated by Emmanuel. The Italian King was now seriously considering open support for France in the conflict. Though the immediate concern for Emmanuel was the safety of his daughter Princess Maria Clotilde. Clotilde, the wife of Prince Napoleon, was living in Paris and refusing to return to the safety of Italy.

Emperor Franz Joseph of Austria-Hungary was never fond of the French Emperor. The two men had battled personally in the field at Solferino. Franz Joseph also held a grudge against Napoleon for the death of his brother Maximilian. Napoleon had implicated Maximilian in his scheme to sit a European monarch on the Mexican throne. The venture ended with the French abandoning the Austrian prince to be shot by a firing squad. Austria’s weak condition after its defeat at the hands of Prussia, however, left Franz Joseph rethinking Austria’s relationship with France. A combined French-Austrian alliance might be the only thing to prevent Prussian hegemony. With the outbreak of the Franco-Prussian war, the Austrian Emperor hoped for a French victory and contemplated entering the conflict.

Note: Here is a summary of foreign rulers opinions on the conflict. If I left out any important information, please leave a comment.:)
 
In a way or another, that's why I always thought that if France and the Imperial regime had held through the winter and denied the Prussians a quick victory, Napoléon III wouldn't find it hard to request for and get a mediation by the British and Austrians, and here I see, the Russians too.

Of note, the tsarevitch and future Alexander III was a francophile already at that time I believe. What influence on his father's policies would he have?
 
Of note, the tsarevitch and future Alexander III was a francophile already at that time I believe. What influence on his father's policies would he have?

Good quesiton ill have to look into this more. From what I know their relationship was poor. Alexander II favored his eldest son Nicholas and was grooming him for the throne, Nicholas' early death in 1865 was devasting for him. The future Alexander III now had the unhappy task of stepping into the place of his beloved brother something Alexander II seems to have resented. The tsarevitch, in turn, disapproved of his father's relationship with his mistress Catherine Dolgorukov. On one occasion Alexander II even threatened to disinherit the tsarevitch after an argument involving Dolgorukov.

EDIT: Alexander II relationship with Dolgorukov began in 1866, though i'm unsure when it became known in the royal family. This may not be a source of tension in 1870.
 
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Very interesting. However a book I recently read on the topic pointed out that France usually stopped figthing after the fall of Paris - one of the reason Gambetta did everything he could to save the city. Would willingly leaving it to a siege something any french government would accept? Especially one as shaky as the Empire?
 
Very interesting. However a book I recently read on the topic pointed out that France usually stopped figthing after the fall of Paris - one of the reason Gambetta did everything he could to save the city. Would willingly leaving it to a siege something any french government would accept? Especially one as shaky as the Empire?

You bring up an important points. How would the French people, press, politicians react be to a pull back to Paris? Men like Marshal MacMahon would be pleased that the Emperor is following the military leaders advice but I don't think men like Gambetta would view it the same way. My guess is their would be alot of outcry at the developments. However as galileo-034 pointed out earlier the referendum of 1870 gave the Emperor a popular mandate and some room to maneuver. This would be enough to stave off treasonable actions by the likes of Gambetta.
 
What the economic situation of France?

Not an expert in this field. As far as I'm aware France economic situation pre war was very good. The economy under Napoleon III had expanded in recent years through alot of state investment. Napoleon also boosted trade with the Cobden-Chevalier free trade agreement with England. Now as others have alluded to in this ATL France in the long run may begin to suffer if Prussia occupies its industrial areas.
 
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Part 8
Part VIII: Resistance

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Irregular Franc-tireurs

While the French reorganized themselves along the Marne and in Paris, the Prussians pressed their sieges of the French border fortresses with intensity. They would need to be dealt to ease the Prussian logistical strain, release manpower for frontline duty and remove any threat to the Prussian rear. Places like Metz could be used as a position from which French could sally forth before returning to the safety of its fortifications. Metz commander General de Nordeck had previously recommended this exact strategy advising that the Army of the Rhine should withdraw into Metz rather than retreat to Chalons. Marshal Canrobert rejected the move pointing out the issue of supplying such a massive force for any length of time.

Despite losing the protection of the Army of the Rhine, Nordeck could be pleased by the fact that his supply situation improved immensely. Without the drain on rations, the French estimated the fortress could hold out perhaps five more months. Also to Nordeck’s pleasure, the Prussians even with the addition of heavy artillery failed to serious damage his defenses. The garrison was now well placed to last the winter. The Prussians ran into similar issues at the other French fortress towns of Toul and Strasbourg. Additionally, irregular francs-tireurs were still roaming at will behind the frontlines harassing Prussian forces. These French efforts helped to slow down the Prussian advance denying them access to the interior railway system.



Note: Anyone want to make an educated guess as to how long these fortresses could potentially hold out for? Metz in particular, from what I have read, looks like it could last into the spring. The other fortresses, like Strasbourg and Toul, in OTL surrendered in late September. For this ATL I figure would likely resist longer as they are not demoralized by the disaster at Sedan.
 
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yeetboy

Banned
How many men are in the garrison? One would assume the Prussians wouldn’t station 100,000 men to sit idle around the city. Otherwise I think late January would be the latest they could last.
 
I'm no expert at military affairs so I can't give any advice but great job!

Thanks.

How many men are in the garrison? One would assume the Prussians wouldn’t station 100,000 men to sit idle around the city. Otherwise I think late January would be the latest they could last.

That's a good estimate, thanks. For the major fortresses under siege:

Metz: 30,000
Strasbourg: 17,000
Toul: 2,300
 
Part 9
Part IX: Attrition

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By January of 1871 Metz, Strasbourg and Toul, after determined resistance, fell to Prussian arms. The Prussians now move onto to their next objectives of Sedan, Verdun, and Belfort.
Belfort in particular with its garrison of some 17,000 soldiers under the command of charismatic Pierre Denfert-Rochereau, the Lion of Belfort, presented a significant challenge to the German advance. The French army, as well, was not merely sitting at Chalons but launching a number of raids to take pressure off of the besieged fortresses. Meanwhile, Prussian soldiers were suffering from the effects of these long sieges with disease laying low thousands of soldiers.

The failure to secure a quick decisive victory left the Prussians in a bad position. They had not planned for a long war and the international community was turning against them. Italy and Austria were mobilizing their armies and taking up a stance of armed neutrality. This presented a significant threat to Prussia and forced them to detach manpower to defend these fronts. Britain as well wanted the conflict over as it was disrupting trade with France. Since 1860, with the signing of the Cobden-Chevalier free trade agreement, the British economy had benefited from France purchasing large sums of British manufactured goods. The war was disrupting this as French demand for goods fell. The only great power on Prussia’s side was Alexander of Russia who pledged support in case of an Austrian attack.

To make matters worse for the Prussians the French navy was now beginning to take a significant role in the conflict. The previous summer they had made an ineffective effort to blockade the German coastline. Now having had many months to build up their resources they were ready to try again. This time the French also had the support of the Danish Royal Navy and use of its supply points. King Christian IX of Denmark saw the prolonged conflict as an opportunity to get back at the Prussians for the Danish defeat in the 1864 Schleswig War.
 
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