LBJ v. Nixon '68

If RFK stays out, then LBJ is assured the Democratic nomination if he wants it. Assuming LBJ does want a second term, who wins in a LBJ-Nixon matchup? Period polling (pre-Tet) said LBJ.
 
Really? Polling favoured Nixon? I would think it would be the other way around.

Hmm...somehow I still think Nixon would win. But i'm sure it would be very dirty race.

Although, this means RFK would survive in this TL. Actually, would it be possible for a LBJ/RFK ticket? I know they disliked each other, but having RFK on the ticket might give the campainge a boost.
 
My money's on Lyndon. But yes, this is going to be a VERY dirty race. 2004 will look like 1952 in terms of ferocity in a match between Lyndon "Barry Goldwater will kill everything" Johnson versus Richard "Ratfucker" Nixon is going to be extremely dirty.

:D
 
LBJ, i think, but its going to be a lot closer than '64 (although that doesn't say much). Johnson was a very canny political operator, and I think he would pull out all stops against Nixon. This is going to get ugly, fast. I think if Johnson handles affairs fairly competently (and remember, a united democratic party could well butterfly away a lot of the nastiness of OTL 1968) he can at least squeak out a win.
 
That depends greatly on whether LBJ merely wants a second term, or whether events have changed, and it is now likely that gets a second term.

Unless you change something, he is going to come out of the Democratic National Convention in awful shape. Even if you give him HHH's popularity ratings immediately post-convention (I suspect they'll be lower), there is no way I can think of for LBJ to make up the 43-28 end-of-September gap that HHH was able to by distancing himself from the war. Dirty tricks? It will be nasty, for sure, but I think a Nixon win is a pretty sure thing.
 
TNF: Or between Tricky Dick and Ruthless Bobby. ;)
TR: I don't think so given their profound disagreement on the war and their mutual loathing. But if LBJ wins in 1968, then RFK will have to fight Hubert in 1972. If Nixon wins in 1968, then Bobby's path to a 1976 coronation is clear.

Nixon's analysis changed often, but one constant was this: "the Johnson Democrats would vote for me against Bobby, but would vote for Hubert." Except that RFK could make it extremely competitive in CA, unlike HHH.
 
Hah! That's easy! Just have LBJ instead of Nixon sic Doc Manhattan on the Vietcong already in '64 and it's no cont-

Oh. Sorry, this is the real life one.:eek::p

It's really hard for me to say. Nixon was the ratfucker, but like others have pointed out, LBJ was also a very wily and canny political operator. My gut says that Johnson would be the victor, but narrowly. Definitely no repeat of 1964.

Though there is the possibility that the stress of campaigning might kill LBJ in the middle of the race, leaving Humphrey to face Nixon. A scenario where HHH ascends to the Oval Office a month or so before the election would be an interesting one.
 
I think the problems would be manifest. He'd have to keep HHH on the ticket, and it could go either way. Keeping in mind that Wallace might allow Nixon to win most of the South. Something like what I have below.

genusmap.php


(R) Richard M. Nixon/Spiro T. Agnew: 283 EV, 44.1%
(D) Lyndon B. Johnson/Hubert H. Humphrey: 228 EV, 43.2%
(AIP) George C. Wallace/ Curtis E. Lemay: 27 EV, 12.4%

Incumbent President: Lyndon Johnson (D)
President-elect: Richard Nixon (R)
 
Another huge problem would be fundraising. The Dems were very short on fundraising in 1967-8 IOTL compared to the GOP. Humphrey couldn't afford regional or state ads during September due to cash shortfalls. The only Democrat who could compete with Nixon or Rocky in fundraising was the junior senator from New York. Kennedy raised and spent the most of all the Democratic candidates during the primaries IOTL.
 
Oakvale: That's why they proposed moving the location to Miami Beach IOTL. There will be riots like OTL, but the convention will be calm. LBJ will win over 75% of the delegates, and Daley will keep the Vietnam plank reasonably hawkish. There may be an attempt to nominate RFK as Veep, which will fail because the principals would wish it to fail. Expect RFK to be sidelined like in 1964.
 
There's also the obvious point that, if Johnson wins, it's pretty much certain he dies at some point in his second (third?) term. IOTL, if I remember correctly, he died just a few days after his term would have ended, and add that with the stress of the Presidency, a close campaign, etc...
 
By 1972, I'll wager that LBJ or Nixon will legislate for candidates' Secret Service protection.

Oakvale: so Hubert Humphrey becomes President. Regardless, he appoints Bobby VP (they had a decent relationship IOTL), and RFK is nominated in 1976. Why? Because HHH had bladder cancer, and so wouldn't run in 1976.
 
There's also the obvious point that, if Johnson wins, it's pretty much certain he dies at some point in his second (third?) term. IOTL, if I remember correctly, he died just a few days after his term would have ended, and add that with the stress of the Presidency, a close campaign, etc...
I am convinced could die sooner than 1972. The stress of Vietnam and what was basically the Second American Civil war going on in the era probably took years off his life and hastened his death in the OTL; think of what it'll do if he still has to keep up with it.
 
I am convinced could die sooner than 1972. The stress of Vietnam and what was basically the Second American Civil war going on in the era probably took years off his life and hastened his death in the OTL; think of what it'll do if he still has to keep up with it.

Perhaps the POD has to be a more robust Johnson, among other things...

But if we have him run, I think we have to consider the fact that this election might well kill LBJ. Think about it. He's old, in poor health. He is an incredibly intense campaigner, running against a dangerous opponent in a very rough year.

Several scenarios present themselves. One is that Johnson dies, or becomes medically incapacitated, sometime between the convention and the general election. Another is that this happens either immediately after the elections, or near the beginning of his term. Alternatively, his health might collapse around, say, 1970. Each of these, IMO, has different ramifications. But what are the effects of a President Johnson who is either physically unable to run or unable to govern past, say, the midterms?
 
First off, I kind of explored this with my timeline The Lions Roar, link in my sig. If RFK leaves the race, LBJ is pretty much given the nomination, and I think he would keep HHH. So, the race, as said previous to me, will be very dirty, as it was in my TL. I think that, unless Nixon is found scandalous, things could go either way. It really depended on turnout for Democrats and Republicans, I suppose.
 
Nov. 30, 1970: President Johnson suffers a stroke that leaves him fully paralyzed, but with full mental capacity.

Dec. 11, 1970: After consulting Mike Mansfield and Hugh Scott, Vice President Humphrey invokes the 25th Amendment with the consent of President Johnson, the White House doctor and Congressional leaders.

Jan. 6, 1971: President Humphrey names Sen. Robert Kennedy (D-NY) as Vice President. Gov. Rockefeller appoints Charles Goodell as his replacement.

Then go from there.
 
Hm...

I think vietnam is probably winding down by '72. Johnson has probably learned something from his first full term, and even if he hasn't fighting a war might just be too much for him.

Humphrey probably turns out to be a halfway decent president, but that isn't enough for reelection after 12 uninterrupted years of democratic rule (and 32 of the last 40, for the historically inclined) and the chaos of the late 60s. GOP candidate is reagan or rockefeller, depending on the GOP's mood; Nixon is probably finished as a political force, after two failures in 3 election cycles. yeah, they were close, but they were both winnable, and he lost. Humphrey loses by a competitive but not close margin. RFK, meanwhile, is building up his credentials for a '76 run...

Side note: does rockefeller run in 76, if he is president? his health, like johnson's wasn't that good; per otl he is going to die before he completes his second term, and the stress of the presidency may worsen that... If he runs anyways, i think that he loses to RFK, if the nation is seeking to avoid a repeat of Johnson's second term...
 
I think people better have a better reason than "I guess" for LBJ to win the '68 election when he dropped out because he couldn't see himself making it through his own party's primaries. The '68 election should have been more of a Nixon blowout than it was in OTL, and I've seen little to convince me that Johnson-Humphrey '68 won't win TX, MN, MA, RI, DC, and maybe one or two other states.
 
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