Straha
Banned
In wake of repulsion of Tet offensive, Lame-duck LBJ and South Vietnamese decide enough is enough, and launch, ASAP, an all-out counter offensive which conquers NV within 6 months. What are the consequences?
OK - let us play this one out. We march north to Vihn - say another 4-5 divisions. We invade the Red River Delta and take Hanoi - Haiphong, say 10-12 divisions. We occupy the HCT, say 8 divisions - ten if we have to back up the Thais and keep it from flowing down the other side of the Mekong. I count 25 divisions and all we have is a bigger war. If 10 were Viet and 5 were Korean that would leave 10 more US divisions for an effective doubling of our forces. Would have needed a military coup by LBJ to pull that one off. Giap was fully prepapred for this. Would have pulled the mainforce back to North Laos, the Annamite spine and Chinese border. Go back to phase 2 in the South and fight a phase 2-3 borderline in the occupied North. Could have kept it up for as long as the Bear and the Dragon would fund it. How long do we last? I just do not see it.
Tet is a very good starting point. Now ignore US domestic politics. Presume that LBJ in mid 68 or Nixon in early 69 use the antiwar movement's terror campiagns plus the ongoing black revolutionary fringe of the Civil Rights movement as an excuse for a military coup in the US.
You do this by getting a congressional bipartisan majority to suspend the writ of habius corpus per the constitution (Lincoln did this by exectutive decree in the USCW and there are postwar SC cases that question whether it can be done that way). Arrest the antiwar leadership and the other radicals. Marginalize the antiwar movement by tarring it with the traitor's brush. Coalition government to press for cold war victory. Massive domestic witch hunt. But tone down the draft calls.
You do that by opening US Army service to foreign volunteers - ten years loyal and faithful gets you a green card. Means you can double the force while reducing the US casualties.
Have Congress also repeal the Posse Commitus Act so that you can use the Army and Guard to enforce domestic tranquility.
Now once and for all confront the Saigon Junta. Put Thieu out if out have to pull an Afghanistan to do it. Put in a junta of noncorrupt generals and technocrats. Tell them we could give a shit about democracy for now above the village / hamlet level but they will stop stealing, stop dealing drugs, and start running an effective local administration. Put a major effort into creating a viable local economy NOW. Basically tell the Fortune 500 that they are all buying from Nam, now find something that can be built there - widgets, T shirts, jeans, whatever. Nam is now the first Tiger over ROK and ROC and Japan. Cambodia is the second after the coup in 1970. Full Viet and US occupation of the country. Thailand is 3rd (1971) once they come up with enough troops to share the occupation of Cambodia and occupy Mekong laos plus the Plain of Jars and HCT.
Go to the original Westmoreland sword and shield by which we go after the main force with the help of a few elite Asian units while the locals clean up the rear with the help of a mass of American tech and log support. also go to Lineback II at once - bomb the little fucks back into the stoneage. But no more spending million dollar planes on strategic sampans. The Jan 73 peace becomes July 4,1975. ASEAN ( Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, RVN, ROC, ROK, Phil, Indonesia, Malayasia, singapore, Australia, New Zealand) form a trade union with the US and Canada. The old SEATO treaty is dusted off as a Western Pacific NATO. Our Army starts coming home one brigade per month, replaced by new local elite units formed with the aid of their export machine economies. Draft abolished in time for the 1976 elections. Democrats given the White House in 76 on rotation as the United Front (GOP + Dem) easily beats the Peace and Freedom cantidate (Ted Kennedy) and the American Independent (George Wallace).
OK - let us play this one out. We march north to Vihn - say another 4-5 divisions. We invade the Red River Delta and take Hanoi - Haiphong, say 10-12 divisions. We occupy the HCT, say 8 divisions - ten if we have to back up the Thais and keep it from flowing down the other side of the Mekong. I count 25 divisions and all we have is a bigger war. If 10 were Viet and 5 were Korean that would leave 10 more US divisions for an effective doubling of our forces. Would have needed a military coup by LBJ to pull that one off. Giap was fully prepapred for this. Would have pulled the mainforce back to North Laos, the Annamite spine and Chinese border. Go back to phase 2 in the South and fight a phase 2-3 borderline in the occupied North. Could have kept it up for as long as the Bear and the Dragon would fund it. How long do we last? I just do not see it.
Tet is a very good starting point. Now ignore US domestic politics. Presume that LBJ in mid 68 or Nixon in early 69 use the antiwar movement's terror campiagns plus the ongoing black revolutionary fringe of the Civil Rights movement as an excuse for a military coup in the US.
You do this by getting a congressional bipartisan majority to suspend the writ of habius corpus per the constitution (Lincoln did this by exectutive decree in the USCW and there are postwar SC cases that question whether it can be done that way). Arrest the antiwar leadership and the other radicals. Marginalize the antiwar movement by tarring it with the traitor's brush. Coalition government to press for cold war victory. Massive domestic witch hunt. But tone down the draft calls.
You do that by opening US Army service to foreign volunteers - ten years loyal and faithful gets you a green card. Means you can double the force while reducing the US casualties.
Have Congress also repeal the Posse Commitus Act so that you can use the Army and Guard to enforce domestic tranquility.
Now once and for all confront the Saigon Junta. Put Thieu out if out have to pull an Afghanistan to do it. Put in a junta of noncorrupt generals and technocrats. Tell them we could give a shit about democracy for now above the village / hamlet level but they will stop stealing, stop dealing drugs, and start running an effective local administration. Put a major effort into creating a viable local economy NOW. Basically tell the Fortune 500 that they are all buying from Nam, now find something that can be built there - widgets, T shirts, jeans, whatever. Nam is now the first Tiger over ROK and ROC and Japan. Cambodia is the second after the coup in 1970. Full Viet and US occupation of the country. Thailand is 3rd (1971) once they come up with enough troops to share the occupation of Cambodia and occupy Mekong laos plus the Plain of Jars and HCT.
Go to the original Westmoreland sword and shield by which we go after the main force with the help of a few elite Asian units while the locals clean up the rear with the help of a mass of American tech and log support. also go to Lineback II at once - bomb the little fucks back into the stoneage. But no more spending million dollar planes on strategic sampans. The Jan 73 peace becomes July 4,1975. ASEAN ( Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, RVN, ROC, ROK, Phil, Indonesia, Malayasia, singapore, Australia, New Zealand) form a trade union with the US and Canada. The old SEATO treaty is dusted off as a Western Pacific NATO. Our Army starts coming home one brigade per month, replaced by new local elite units formed with the aid of their export machine economies. Draft abolished in time for the 1976 elections. Democrats given the White House in 76 on rotation as the United Front (GOP + Dem) easily beats the Peace and Freedom cantidate (Ted Kennedy) and the American Independent (George Wallace).