Latin American country fights a independence war before the usa

A Latin American country fights a independence war before the Usa. Which nation would be most likely and could they win.
 
Weren't most revolts were lead by Native Americans, not European colonists or their descendants, prior to the American Revolution? So look there first.

Because of that, maybe Mexico or Peru if they revolt at a time when Spain is fighting a global war and another European power views the rebellion as useful to their interests.
 
Well, there were conspiracies among Mexican and Peruvian grandees back in the day... have one of those conspiracies gain steam and eventually explode at a time of Spanish weakness (1640s, or Carlos II...) and you could see early independence for those countries under semi-feudal systems.

Or you could have a successful Maroon revolt somewhere in Central America turn into a proper state. Or you could argue that the Mayans qualify--if they ever were subjugated, it was at most for a few years before they re-asserted control in the Yucatan.
 
There was an unsuccessful Inca' uprising IOTL at some point during the late 17th or early 18th century...
 
For one which at least would not be *later* than the US war for independence, see John H. Coatsworth's "Counterfactual Mexicos" http://disciplinas.stoa.usp.br/plug...ntent/1/COunterfactual Mexicos Coatsworth.pdf where he discusses (among other things) what would happen if "Mexico’s economic elite of unhappy Creole landowners and merchants, many of whom held minor posts in the civil bureaucracy, had decided to rebel in 1776 like their North American brothers..." He argues that "If Mexico had rebelled, neither France nor Spain would have intervened to aid the British colonists. Without foreign aid, the British colonists in North America would have lost their war for independence. Since the British government had little interest in assuming the costs of managing vast territories on the American continent, British North America would have been confined to the Atlantic seaboard and eastern Canada for at least a generation or two. With her North American colonies subdued by 1778 or 1779, Britain would have been in an excellent position to help Mexico consolidate its independence from Spain."

Coatsworth admits that "It is easier to imagine a British victory over Washington than a Mexican revolt against Charles III and his popular Viceroy Antonio María de Bucareli. On the other hand, the Spanish colonial regime had raised taxes dramatically since the end of the Seven Years War (1758–63), indigenous riots and rebellions were becoming more and more common, and Spain’s ability to provide security at home and on the seas faced numerous and growing challenges.

"The North American protests against British rule began when the British government sought to impose a small tariff on tea and other imports along with a modest stamp tax to cover the cost of protecting the colonists from indigenous guerrillas and their ships from foreign navies. When the colonists protested, the British government withdrew the taxes. At the time of the famous U.S. declaration of independence, the only taxes levied in the British colonies were local taxes imposed by municipal or provincial governments to cover local expenses. Not one penny left the colonies as revenue for the Mother Country. In contrast, Spain extracted millions of pesos in revenues every year from New Spain. And there were many other complaints as well – the preference given Spaniards born in Spain for all the highest offices in the colonial government, for example. Mexicans had good reason to rebel; the North Americans had hardly any reason at all..."
 
It always amazes me how long the incas kept up the fight
Since the same Spanish conquest, even with the death of Atahhuallpa, the fight continue with his brother Manco Inca whose army was using horses and guns, they were able to capture Cuzco and were about to take Lima., but some poblems arise, and he had to flee to Vilcabamba were he was murdered by some spanish., hwever his descendent survive until Tupac amaru I.

with Tupac Amaru II, was the last amerindian revolution, the other were started by criollos, San Martin y Bolivar
 
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