For one which at least would not be *later* than the US war for independence, see John H. Coatsworth's "Counterfactual Mexicos"
http://disciplinas.stoa.usp.br/plug...ntent/1/COunterfactual Mexicos Coatsworth.pdf where he discusses (among other things) what would happen if "Mexico’s economic elite of unhappy Creole landowners and merchants, many of whom held minor posts in the civil bureaucracy, had decided to rebel in 1776 like their North American brothers..." He argues that "If Mexico had rebelled, neither France nor Spain would have intervened to aid the British colonists. Without foreign aid, the British colonists in North America would have lost their war for independence. Since the British government had little interest in assuming the costs of managing vast territories on the American continent, British North America would have been confined to the Atlantic seaboard and eastern Canada for at least a generation or two. With her North American colonies subdued by 1778 or 1779, Britain would have been in an excellent position to help Mexico consolidate its independence from Spain."
Coatsworth admits that "It is easier to imagine a British victory over Washington than a Mexican revolt against Charles III and his popular Viceroy Antonio María de Bucareli. On the other hand, the Spanish colonial regime had raised taxes dramatically since the end of the Seven Years War (1758–63), indigenous riots and rebellions were becoming more and more common, and Spain’s ability to provide security at home and on the seas faced numerous and growing challenges.
"The North American protests against British rule began when the British government sought to impose a small tariff on tea and other imports along with a modest stamp tax to cover the cost of protecting the colonists from indigenous guerrillas and their ships from foreign navies. When the colonists protested, the British government withdrew the taxes. At the time of the famous U.S. declaration of independence, the only taxes levied in the British colonies were local taxes imposed by municipal or provincial governments to cover local expenses. Not one penny left the colonies as revenue for the Mother Country. In contrast, Spain extracted millions of pesos in revenues every year from New Spain. And there were many other complaints as well – the preference given Spaniards born in Spain for all the highest offices in the colonial government, for example. Mexicans had good reason to rebel; the North Americans had hardly any reason at all..."