Latin America w/ alt Cuban Revolution

So suppose, for the sake of argument, that the years following the overthrow of Batista (so 1959-62) see a very different outcome from OTL* - one where Cuba doesn’t trend toward a single-Party communist dictatorship, see massive escalating tensions with the US, or court the Soviet Union.

Plausibility thereof aside, what would this mean for the rest of Latin America? Specifically, I’d like to talk mainly about how the 1960’s are different for the region; if we get a sense for that, we can move on to how the 1970’s and 80’s are like from there, and then move on from that once we get that.

To start with the obvious - would the CIA, US State Dept, et el be as eager to intervene against left wing populists? To take one example, would this likely prevent the 1964 Coup in Bolivia? To take a smaller example - would Montalva have gotten as much outside aid to defeat Allende that same year? More generally, would Mateos and Frondizi have better relationships with the US in their later years; if so, how does that affect things in their home countries?

Could the different context mean that Janio Quadros serves his five year term as president in Brazil? And even if he still resigns months into his presidency, is the 1964 Coup now less likely to happen? On the opposite side of things, would the fall of Trujillo and subsequent events in the Dominican Republic be effected? Or any of the coups in Peru? And would the escalation of conflicts in Guatemala and Columbia into Civil War be affected?

What are some other short term changes the region could see? How would all these changes play off of each other? And overall, what do you guys think?

*this is basically what I’m thinking
 
I would like to know more about this alt-Cuba, because the nature of its settlement with the US could have a significant bearing on US policy going forward.

Obviously the US didn’t need the Cuban Revolution to turn into a subversive meddler in Latin America; it was already doing that. You’re certainly correct that paranoia after Cuba stepped things up several notches, so some of these interventions may have been less forceful or have fewer resources committed.

But how does Cuba stay out of the Soviet sphere? Is it a major economic/diplomatic concession on the part of the US after the revolution? An earlier (meddling) realignment to support the revolution? Is it just different actors behaving differently, making fewer demands on the US?

Option one is maybe the biggest change in the type of behavior the US engages in, and could lead to all sorts of “positive” changes where state stability is the most important factor in relations.

Option two is kinda par for the course, even if the types of subversive elements supported change somewhat. This could mean a continuation or even escalation of opportunistic destabilization in future.

Option three is kind of the invisible option- the one that makes the US say “everything is working according to plan, no need to change.” Here there’s maybe no increased focus on the region, no special cause for concern.

Cuba is also always going to be a place of special concern. Other than Mexico (where we would certainly go in with ground troops) no other country in Latin America provokes the same kind of fear in the US. However we handle things there is likely to get a lot of attention and become a big influence on the rest of Latin American policy.
 
I would like to know more about this alt-Cuba, because the nature of its settlement with the US could have a significant bearing on US policy going forward...

But how does Cuba stay out of the Soviet sphere? ... Is it just different actors behaving differently, making fewer demands on the US? ...

Option three is kind of the invisible option- the one that makes the US say “everything is working according to plan, no need to change.” Here there’s maybe no increased focus on the region, no special cause for concern.
See the link in the footnote of the OP; basically, short answer, it comes down to Option 3.

(To give an example of how it might work in the finer details - OTL, Cuba, likely with Guevara making the push, sought a sugar for oil bartering deal with the Soviet Union, which led US owned oil refineries to refuse, which led to Cuba nationalizing said refineries, which naturally antagonized the US; TTL, this can be avoided by Cuba getting this same deal with a more US-friendly trading partner, like Norway.)
 
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