John Fredrick Parker
Donor
So suppose, for the sake of argument, that the years following the overthrow of Batista (so 1959-62) see a very different outcome from OTL* - one where Cuba doesn’t trend toward a single-Party communist dictatorship, see massive escalating tensions with the US, or court the Soviet Union.
Plausibility thereof aside, what would this mean for the rest of Latin America? Specifically, I’d like to talk mainly about how the 1960’s are different for the region; if we get a sense for that, we can move on to how the 1970’s and 80’s are like from there, and then move on from that once we get that.
To start with the obvious - would the CIA, US State Dept, et el be as eager to intervene against left wing populists? To take one example, would this likely prevent the 1964 Coup in Bolivia? To take a smaller example - would Montalva have gotten as much outside aid to defeat Allende that same year? More generally, would Mateos and Frondizi have better relationships with the US in their later years; if so, how does that affect things in their home countries?
Could the different context mean that Janio Quadros serves his five year term as president in Brazil? And even if he still resigns months into his presidency, is the 1964 Coup now less likely to happen? On the opposite side of things, would the fall of Trujillo and subsequent events in the Dominican Republic be effected? Or any of the coups in Peru? And would the escalation of conflicts in Guatemala and Columbia into Civil War be affected?
What are some other short term changes the region could see? How would all these changes play off of each other? And overall, what do you guys think?
*this is basically what I’m thinking
Plausibility thereof aside, what would this mean for the rest of Latin America? Specifically, I’d like to talk mainly about how the 1960’s are different for the region; if we get a sense for that, we can move on to how the 1970’s and 80’s are like from there, and then move on from that once we get that.
To start with the obvious - would the CIA, US State Dept, et el be as eager to intervene against left wing populists? To take one example, would this likely prevent the 1964 Coup in Bolivia? To take a smaller example - would Montalva have gotten as much outside aid to defeat Allende that same year? More generally, would Mateos and Frondizi have better relationships with the US in their later years; if so, how does that affect things in their home countries?
Could the different context mean that Janio Quadros serves his five year term as president in Brazil? And even if he still resigns months into his presidency, is the 1964 Coup now less likely to happen? On the opposite side of things, would the fall of Trujillo and subsequent events in the Dominican Republic be effected? Or any of the coups in Peru? And would the escalation of conflicts in Guatemala and Columbia into Civil War be affected?
What are some other short term changes the region could see? How would all these changes play off of each other? And overall, what do you guys think?
*this is basically what I’m thinking