Latin America Pre 1900-Miscellaneous-Alternate History Thread.

[Varum]

Didn't the war take place along the lowlands of the coast, where Chile had the advantage due to Peru/Bolivia troops suffering from descending from extreme elevation?

You mean "soroche"? On the contrary, it happens after ascending to the highlands, and affected the Chilean troops during the Sierra Campaign after the occupation of Lima.

Anyway, the Chilean advantage during the Pacific War was on the material side, with a modern navy that controlled the sea lines, which were the easier route of transportation between the coastal towns (specially in the desert region of Tarapaca) and secured their initiative to invade at their pleasure (though there were a bit cautious until the sinking of the Huascar, the last important Peruvian ship). The same goes for the Army, which in the case of Peru was coming from a period of cuts because of the economical crisis, and fear of another military coup (which almost happened during the transition between presidents Balta and Pardo, the first civilian President of Peru).

 

[Lenwe]

What if Ecuador/Brasil had joined Chile in the War of Pacific?

Probably Depending on who joined If Brazil Joined Chile will maintain their claim in the Patagonia, Argentina Can't do her "Conquest of the Desert" campaing an we will see a smaller Argentina Overal, a Bigger Chile and a Stronger Mapuche presencié andnpopulation in the Patagonia up to the same level than in Chile, as they don't suffer the genoicidical campaing from the Argentinean State, only the "cultural" one of the Chilean state

If Ecuador joined the war we will see a more effective Sierra Campaing as the Ecuador can deploy troops better suited and adapted to the Andes highlands So we see a Bigger Ecuador, taking up to Chiclayo and e Iquitos with the frontier in the River Marañón on the Amazon, maybe up to Cajamarca, bu I don't know well were put a good frontier as the Área is not my strong

If both join the war, Both are posible and a shorter overall War and Occupation

It's been a while since I've read on it, but I seem to recall that Brazil had mining interests in coastal Bolivia/Peru being usurped by Chile, so there was some interest in joining an anti-Chile alliance. Perhaps navally, they could confront Chile. Otherwise, there's a lot of geography land obstacles to get to the action.

I suppose Brazil could find it a good opportunity to make territorial gains from Bolivia/Peru, and thus join with Chile. Since Brazil wasn't doing anything with the border territory they had, or made successful gains diplomatically,

Tangentially, Argentina was toying with allying with Bolivia/Peru before the war, but declined. They also have severe geography to overcome to make any difference.

Argentina was ready to intervene in the Perú Bolivia Favor, but fall back when in secret negotation Chile give up their claims in the Patagonia on the promise of Argentinean non intervention treaty, Chile was stalling and dragging his feet on that accord in hope that Brazil could be swayed on a Alliance against Argentina, but as there were no response from Brazil, Chile had to give up their claims as they don't have anything left to defend against an Argentiean invasión however small it was

An Argentine intervention supporting Perú/Bolivia in the War of the Pacific would be a serious problem for Chile, but I think it would be politically difficult for Argentina to do so - it still has territorial claims on Bolivia. The geography is rough, sure, but it's no rougher for Argentina than for Chile moving north.

Argentina was more intereses in the Patagonia, and their principal obstacle on the Patagonia was the Chilean claims in the territory and his tacit support to the Mapuche Statelet in there, in both weapons and economic trade, so they have reason to intervene againts Chile, but as I say before they accept to no intervene if the Chile retire their claims in the Patagonia and their support on the Mapuches

 

[Xenophonte]

WI the 1835 Salvador da Bahia 'Male revolt' (one of the most important Brazilian slave uprising) 'd has lasted a bit more than OTL and/or the slaves 'd have kept the surprise factor in their favor a bit more? Given that in OTL, this Slave uprising is considered as one of the key causes that later had lead to its end...
Could ITTL, if lasted and if the Slavocrats elites 'd be even more shocked than OTL, then it 'd has caused if not the end of the Slavery, at least a more sooner end of the slave trade to Brazil?

 

[Rafael stahl]

WI the 1835 Salvador da Bahia 'Male revolt' (one of the most important Brazilian slave uprising) 'd has lasted a bit more than OTL and/or the slaves 'd have kept the surprise factor in their favor a bit more? Given that in OTL, this Slave uprising is considered as one of the key causes that later had lead to its end...
Could ITTL, if lasted and if the Slavocrats elites 'd be even more shocked than OTL, then it 'd has caused if not the end of the Slavery, at least a more sooner end of the slave trade to Brazil?

I Don't think it would have that big of a difference. Probably the Portuguese would persecute african beliefs a lot more, which could lead to more slave rebellions. We could have a republic of slaves born out of these revolts, but it would've been overthrown pretty quickly by the US, France or other colonial power since they feared Brazil would become another Haiti.
I think one scenario that would be interesting is that , after this short-lived slave Republic a new ( white Republic) emerges and frees all slaves, with the condition that they would be returned to Africa. Then, a "Brazilian Liberia" would emerge that would house most of the freed slaves.
This is, however is very expensive, resulting in a very indebted country which would throw us into even more political instability

 

[ramones1986]

Which of the following cities could be the more probable alternative to Buenos Aires as the Argentinian federal capital: Tucumán, Córdoba or Rosario?

 

[Xenophonte]

Which of the following cities could be the more probable alternative to Buenos Aires as the Argentinian federal capital: Tucumán, Córdoba or Rosario?

While it 'd depends on the circumstances or political scenario that would have led to seek or to establish an alternative capital... I think that from the options, Rosario, 'd be the more probable...

 

[minifidel]

Which of the following cities could be the more probable alternative to Buenos Aires as the Argentinian federal capital: Tucumán, Córdoba or Rosario?

As Xenophonte says, it depends on the circumstances that lead to it being chosen over Buenos Aires in the first place. I actually think Rosario is the least likely: its later importance is a product of 19th century trade networks, not historical political significance, and when Argentina chose a capital on the Paraná, it chose the eponymous city. So if it's a Liga Federal-like triumph over the Unitarians and the Buenos Aires Federales, it might stay at Paraná.

Tucumán or Córdoba becoming the capital is more plausible, but still requires a solution to the Buenos Aires issue that sparked the civil wars and the Anarchy. Córdoba held a competing Congress to Tucumán, and if the civil war is resolved swiftly (as opposed to the slow dissolution of OTL), one or the other might impose itself as the de facto capital while the independence war continues.

 

[Wendell]

What if the machinations undertaken during/after the Napoleonic Wars to keep the Spanish possessions in the orbit of royal/imperial Brazil had succeeded?

What if more countries experiment with postcolonial monarchies?

What if Mexico's first postcolonial emperor is the scion of some European house?

 

[Xenophonte]

What if the machinations undertaken during/after the Napoleonic Wars to keep the Spanish possessions in the orbit of royal/imperial Brazil had succeeded?

Well, even if it 'd do require a different development and/or consequences of French invasion and Peninsular war, but to answer based in the OTL, the reaction of the local Spanish and Criollo officials and/or elites to the Braganza envoys proposal, if they 'd be anyhow successful...
Then I'd think that the more probably consequence aside of a division among those loyal to whatever 'd be their new Queen and the rest that 'd be supporting and starting a lot of rebellions and giving aide and support for whatever rival/alternates royal candidates they 'd be found.

What if more countries experiment with postcolonial monarchies?

What if Mexico's first postcolonial emperor is the scion of some European house?

Well, it 'd depends on a different development of the Napoleonic/Peninsular wars and/or from different or not the Revolutionaries wars... But, in the case of the Spanish-Americans, I would guess that 'd be a lot of political solidarity and intermarrying between them and probably would have conserved/continued mostly intact the colonial era socio-political structures. Thus, I'd guess that mirroring the OTL Brazilian one that they 'd be facing often political uprising attempts and/or rebellions...
Finally, for Mexico, the only possible alternative to OTL, that I can think about 'd be crowning to a Bourbon prince from the Spanish royal family... Also, about the consequences, first and foremost 'd be the legitimacy and prestige that a Spanish Bourbon 'd have for the whole population, while for the local elites, it 'd have meant the guarantee of the colonial era socio-political continuity, but now with them in the upper strata of the Mexican society while avoiding to cut all the political links to Spain.
Also, in this scenario, 'd be possible that these same factor 'd have allowed that if not ruled directly from Mexico that the OTL Central American nations, 'd have been possible that they 'd keep their unity under a monarch of their choice among the Spanish royal family...

 

[xsampa]

Is an independent Grão Pará plausible?

 

[Vinization]

What if José de Iturrigaray, viceroy of New Spain and a sympathizer of the local criollo elite, was warned of the imminent coup against him and either fled Mexico City (probably to Veracruz) with his supporters (guys like Francisco Primo de Verdad and Melchor de Talamantes, who died in prison after the viceroy's downfall) or gathered a force of his own and defeated them?

Could other colonies, such as New Grenada, Chile and Venezuela (which were reconquered by royalist armies), become independent sooner and faster, following Mexico's example?​

 

[Vinization]

Is an independent Grão Pará plausible?

I guess it is if the rest of Brazil falls apart, but the area's so gigantic and underpopulated it would struggle to fend for itself.

 

[Wendell]

Is an independent Grão Pará plausible?

You mean like the Confederation of the Equator?

 

[Vinization]

You mean like the Confederation of the Equator?

That's another revolt, the Cabanagem. The Confederation of the Equator took place in Pernambuco and the surrounding provinces (Rio Grande do Norte, Ceará, etc)

 

[minifidel]

That's another revolt, the Cabanagem. The Confederation of the Equator took place in Pernambuco and the surrounding provinces (Rio Grande do Norte, Ceará, etc)

What would it have taken for the Pernambuco rebellion to succeed? I toyed with the idea while writing my TL, but couldn't justify it lasting more than a few months longer than IOTL.

 

[Vinization]

What would it have taken for the Pernambuco rebellion to succeed? I toyed with the idea while writing my TL, but couldn't justify it lasting more than a few months longer than IOTL.

Honestly, no idea. Maybe if something happened to Dom Pedro I? He fell on the place like a ton of bricks, had plenty of soldiers and, most importantly, ships. If he fell ill and died or something it could delay Rio de Janeiro's response to the revolt, maybe long enough for Recife to get some international recognition, but I doubt it. Maybe the Cisplatine War happens earlier on top of that too?​

 

[Xenophonte]

Maybe if something happened to Dom Pedro I?

It wouldn't have (only) affected to the ongoing uprising, but it 'd a Big 'butterflying event and a Pod by itself that 'd have consequences for the same monarchy as (IMO) with very bigger possibilities that it 'd affect to all Brazil...

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

A POD where all the Spanish-speaking colonies of the Americas were united into one nation is especially one that's interesting

 

[Xenophonte]

A POD where all the Spanish-speaking colonies of the Americas were united into one nation is especially one that's interesting

Agree, though not even during the Colonial period these Spanish-speaking colonies were united at best, perhaps an implemented and successful Count of Aranda Plan... Could be a start or an initial step to the goal?

 

[TickTock The Witch's Dead]

Agree, though not even during the Colonial period these Spanish-speaking colonies were united at best, perhaps an implemented and successful Count of Aranda Plan... Could be a start or an initial step to the goal?

That or the colonies were better integrated & connected and thus allows for a united Spanish-speaking country?