Latin America Pre 1900-Miscellaneous-Alternate History Thread.

[Xenophonte]

The idea behind this thread is to have a centralized discussion thread which is aimed basically to try to establish and/or stimulate in a centralized location, the AH discussion about Lat. Am. and/or its related PODs. Sames ones that every now and then are created and/or asked about, but usually most of them fail to attract attention or to generate discussion. Though often they are buried/ignored by the obscurity/lack of knowledge about the pod.
Also, hopefully this Thread could be useful as the place where the info about Lat. Am. History in relation to AH could be found/asked while the more political derivate discussion 'd be continuing to do in the Official Lat. Am. Political Discussion Chat Thread.

 

[minifidel]

Thank you for creating this thread! I think it's useful to have a miscellaneous thread for a region that tends to draw a relatively niche audience on the site.

 

[TimTurner]

What happens if Paraguay is full-blown dismantled as a country after the Paraguay War? What's the likeliest scenario where that occurs and what follows afterwards, in short-, medium-, and long-term?

 

[LNSS]

What happens if Paraguay is full-blown dismantled as a country after the Paraguay War? What's the likeliest scenario where that occurs and what follows afterwards, in short-, medium-, and long-term?

To be honest, I don't think much happens differently, Paraguay is minor enough that it doesn't seem like it would have major repercussions. "Did you know there was a country called Paraguay" would be a fun fact, it's place in history similar to that of the Riograndese Republic, maybe

 

[TimTurner]

To be honest, I don't think much happens differently, Paraguay is minor enough that it doesn't seem like it would have major repercussions. "Did you know there was a country called Paraguay" would be a fun fact, it's place in history similar to that of the Riograndese Republic, maybe

Would Brazil annex the most of it?

 

[minifidel]

What happens if Paraguay is full-blown dismantled as a country after the Paraguay War? What's the likeliest scenario where that occurs and what follows afterwards, in short-, medium-, and long-term?

Short term, whoever keeps the territory is buying a long-term problem and a huge headache as it takes on several hundred thousand women and children with no food or resources in a country that has been so thoroughly destroyed that 90% of adult males are dead. In the medium- to long-term, barring a partition between Argentina and Brazil, there would be a war between the two sooner than later.

If Argentina is spared of the uprising behind its lines early into the war - and which would stretch into the next year, forcing Argentina's army to withdraw entirely and leaving the rest of the war to Brazil's forces - the war might end sooner, which would increase the likelihood of a full partition. Considering how recently (at the time of the war) Argentina had recognized Paraguay's independence, they'd almost certainly try and take more territory if their involvement in the war is proportionally more significant.

There would also be fighting over the Chaco region, but this time it would be between Argentina/Bolivia/Brazil, and that's going to make the Paraguay War look almost pleasant by comparison.

 

[GameBawesome]

1.What if Juan Manuel de Rosas was successful at defeating Brazil, and conquering Bolivia, Paraguay, and Uruguay, uniting the entire Rio De La Plata
2. What if Simon Bolivar was successful at creating Gran Colombia
3. What if the Inca Empire survived?
4 What if Pedro II had a surviving son, which in turn means the survival of the Empire of Brazil

 

[minifidel]

1.What if Juan Manuel de Rosas was successful at defeating Brazil, and conquering Bolivia, Paraguay, and Uruguay, uniting the entire Rio De La Plata

By the time Rosas is in charge in Argentina, Bolivia and Paraguay were long lost to Buenos Aires; defeating Brazil might mean Uruguay rejoins the Confederation, but it's also contingent on Rosas "winning" the Argentine civil war as well, which may be a bit beyond his means primarily because he was horrendously unpopular outside of the capital.
(Shameless plug: if you're interested in a united Rio de la Plata TL, check out the first link in my signature!).

 

[Xenophonte]

What happens if Paraguay is full-blown dismantled as a country after the Paraguay War? What's the likeliest scenario where that occurs and what follows afterwards, in short-, medium-, and long-term?

Well, aside that it 'd 've set a dangerous (for their neighbours nations) precedent, it for Brazil and Argentina 'd have practically reaped of any possible benefits that 'd have gotten of the war. It 'd be caused due to the necessary cost to rebuild from scratch and to feed their new citizens, that now 'd have to be done for them for their new and greater annexed/incorporated former Paraguayan territories.
It also, would have increased the possibilities that sooner or later would have happened disputes or disagreements over their new border location/delimitation...

 

[Xenophonte]

What if Simon Bolivar was successful at creating Gran Colombia

Well, I think that the real challenge, here wouldn't be to create it, but that the Gran Colombia, stayed united... But, If so, then it 'd have the potential to become a real and strongly republican South American power that 'd have the potential to become in the rival of Brazil.

 

[Falecius]

To be honest, I don't think much happens differently, Paraguay is minor enough that it doesn't seem like it would have major repercussions. "Did you know there was a country called Paraguay" would be a fun fact, it's place in history similar to that of the Riograndese Republic, maybe

1) Argentina and Brazil share a MUCH longer border, probably a poorly demarcated one in places. That heightens their rivalry and changes their security equations. Argentina also inherits a border dispute with Bolivia over Chaco.
2) This does not only change Argentine-Brazilian-Bolivian relations but also Argentine-Chilean ones. Argentina might team up with Chile in the dispute with Bolivia (leading to Brazil supporting Bolivia? Though they'd have their border conflicts in the Amazon) or be more conciliatory to Chile in Patagonia to prevent her own alliance with Rio.
3) A large Paraguayan Indio population would change Argentinian internal politics and national identity.
4) down the line, no Chaco war. This, assuming a very convergent TL outside South America, would impact the LoN ability to deal with other stuff, such as, well, Germany.
5) More intense Argentinian/Brazilian rivalry causes ripples in Brazil's political life and a more fierce South American naval race.
6) Both countries (and likely Chile as well) seek local and overseas allies/partners. They'd meddle in the Ecuador/Peru/Colombia disputes over the Amazon more. They might entangle themselves in trans-oceanic alliances for security.
7) Chances of a big war between two South American power blocs led by Argentina and Brazil respectively increase. This may or may not coincide with a more global conflict.

 

[ramones1986]

If the French were more successful in their efforts in colonizing South America, most specifically the coast of OTL Brazil, which would be more viable, France Antartique (southeast), France Équinoxiale (northeast) or both (or even neither)?

 

[Xenophonte]

If the French were more successful in their efforts in colonizing South America, most specifically the coast of OTL Brazil, which would be more viable, France Antartique (southeast), France Équinoxale (northeast) or both (or even neither)?

Well, IMO, for either of them 'd be successful, it 'd also require a weaker Portugal and/or a more stronger French political will and that these colonies 'd be prioritized.

 

[ramones1986]

Well, IMO, for either of them 'd be successful, it 'd also require a weaker Portugal and/or a more stronger French political will and that these colonies 'd be prioritized.

Quite tough for such scenarios, I admit.

 

[Elsurnoolvida]

What if Ecuador/Brasil had joined Chile in the War of Pacific?

 

[Falecius]

What if Ecuador/Brasil had joined Chile in the War of Pacific?

Why would Brazil do that?

 

[unprincipled peter]

Why would Brazil do that?

It's been a while since I've read on it, but I seem to recall that Brazil had mining interests in coastal Bolivia/Peru being usurped by Chile, so there was some interest in joining an anti-Chile alliance. Perhaps navally, they could confront Chile. Otherwise, there's a lot of geography land obstacles to get to the action.

I suppose Brazil could find it a good opportunity to make territorial gains from Bolivia/Peru, and thus join with Chile. Since Brazil wasn't doing anything with the border territory they had, or made successful gains diplomatically,

Tangentially, Argentina was toying with allying with Bolivia/Peru before the war, but declined. They also have severe geography to overcome to make any difference.

 

[minifidel]

Tangentially, Argentina was toying with allying with Bolivia/Peru before the war, but declined. They also have severe geography to overcome to make any difference.

An Argentine intervention supporting Perú/Bolivia in the War of the Pacific would be a serious problem for Chile, but I think it would be politically difficult for Argentina to do so - it still has territorial claims on Bolivia. The geography is rough, sure, but it's no rougher for Argentina than for Chile moving north.

 

[unprincipled peter]

A minimally thought out WI:

WI there was no treaty of Madrid in 1750, which swapped Portuguese Sacramento (part of OTL Uruguay) for 7 Jesuit missiones in Rio Grande do Sul. In the short term, Spain/Portugal had to physically evict the Guarani Indians in the Guarani War of 1756. The deal was scrapped by Spain under a new King Carlos III. The result is that Spain cleared out a region with Guarani who were loyal to Spain and intensely willing to defend their homes. Spain didn't get Sacramento at this time, but took it a couple decades later.

Now, there's going to be some alternate history going on, not the least of which is the Portuguese (now seated in Brazil) will need to clear out the missiones on the way to taking Uruguay. They might not be successful to begin with, or there's likely to be an even larger population to rebel in the cisplatine war. First, though, the Jesuits have been expelled, but the Indians still remain.

Anyhoo, to get to my half baked idea (probably butterflied by a whole lot of changed history), Lopez in Paraguay has a lot of support of the Guarani in Paraguay. Might he find support of the Guarani in OTL lower Brazil? Might he carve out a larger Paraguay which now has ocean access?

 

[unprincipled peter]

An Argentine intervention supporting Perú/Bolivia in the War of the Pacific would be a serious problem for Chile, but I think it would be politically difficult for Argentina to do so - it still has territorial claims on Bolivia. The geography is rough, sure, but it's no rougher for Argentina than for Chile moving north.

Didn't the war take place along the lowlands of the coast, where Chile had the advantage due to Peru/Bolivia troops suffering from descending from extreme elevation? It was a hostile desert environment, which all sides would have to deal with, but crossing the Andes is a serious feat that makes for a nice defensive barrier.