Latin America in an Axis victory scenario?

fashbasher

Banned
As we all know, Nazi and Japanese war aims were mainly focused on Europe and Far East Asia, respectively, but with the world map in 1940 those regions would have given the Axis at least nominal sovereignty over all of Africa save Liberia and all of Asia/Pacific save Bhutan and some of the Arab/Persian states (yay, colonialism!)

That leaves the following independent states assuming a Reich victory in Europe and a Japanese victory in the Far East:

Bhutan

Liberia

Iran, Afghanistan

Saudi, North Yemen

Canada

Maybe Aus or NZ depending on what Tojo does

The USA

Haiti

Brazil

A ton of Hispanic countries that would take forever for the Axis to mop up

Presumably it'd be easy for a victorious Axis to squeeze all the African and Asian countries, and Japan might be able to take Australasia although there might be a prolonged Aboriginal and Maori resistance. Africa also would be full of jungles that could hold out for some time, but they probably could never become an effective resistance bastion due to those jungles...and it's possible that a fascist could be elected in the US and/or Canada even without a J invasion. The question is...what happens to all those Latin American countries that'd be a bitch to individually conquer without a fascist base in the Americas? Do they become a highly fortified resistance base that's locked into a Cold War with the fascists?
 
They all agree in a Rio Pact style of mutual defense treaty and remain unconquered mostly due the might of the United States Navy. The Americas would turn into a USA led political, military and economical alliance likely stronger than during the Cold War. It may very well be that the USA subsidizes (with access to its vast domestic market) the economic development of Canada and Latin America, like it did with Japan and South Korea in order to bind them closer, since the Americas would be its safest allies. (I'm not sure Africa, Australia and Southern Asia would so easily fall to the Axis, though. Those places would probably see protracted proxy wars for decades).

While the Axis could play the anti-imperialist card in Latin America, I'm not sure what would their appeal be. Racial superiority ideals would need to be aimed at the native and mestizo population to cause an upheaval and that's the exact opposite of Nazi racial views. If an alliance with the USA provides freedom and prosperity, how would the Nazi get a support base in the Americas?

In the long term, trade with the Old World can supersede ideological or imperial preferences - a unified Europe would remain a huge market and production powerhouse, even under Nazi rule. But no, I don't see the Axis doing any sort of conquering in the Americas.
 
Brazil might go full collaborationist and join the fascists.
If you kill off Getulio Vargas before he became President, then there would've likely been a military coup to put Plinio Salgado in as President in a Intergralist/Military Junta regime in the 1930s, that would have lead to Brazil supporting the Axis Post-WWII in this scenario.
 
Brazil might go full collaborationist and join the fascists.

That is impossible, not even the most hardline members of the germanophile faction as Francisco Campos didn't wanted to Join the axis, Brazil had nothing to gain from that, our main comercial partner was the USA and the Brazilian navy had only two BBs, there was no chance to stop a american invasion.

If you kill off Getulio Vargas before he became President, then there would've likely been a military coup to put Plinio Salgado in as President in a Intergralist/Military Junta regime in the 1930s, that would have lead to Brazil supporting the Axis Post-WWII in this scenario.

It wouldn't. Integralists crashed with brazilian nazis on the 30s, and the largest nazi party in Brazil had mere 2000 members. Integralist is extremely isolationist and against both the US and the Fascist regimes on europe. In this scenario Brazil would end like 1960s Francoist Spain, isolated.

They all agree in a Rio Pact style of mutual defense treaty and remain unconquered mostly due the might of the United States Navy. The Americas would turn into a USA led political, military and economical alliance likely stronger than during the Cold War. It may very well be that the USA subsidizes (with access to its vast domestic market) the economic development of Canada and Latin America, like it did with Japan and South Korea in order to bind them closer, since the Americas would be its safest allies.

This is what would happen.
 

Deleted member 1487

As we all know, Nazi and Japanese war aims were mainly focused on Europe and Far East Asia, respectively, but with the world map in 1940 those regions would have given the Axis at least nominal sovereignty over all of Africa save Liberia and all of Asia/Pacific save Bhutan and some of the Arab/Persian states (yay, colonialism!)

That leaves the following independent states assuming a Reich victory in Europe and a Japanese victory in the Far East:

Bhutan

Liberia

Iran, Afghanistan

Saudi, North Yemen

Canada

Maybe Aus or NZ depending on what Tojo does

The USA

Haiti

Brazil

A ton of Hispanic countries that would take forever for the Axis to mop up

Presumably it'd be easy for a victorious Axis to squeeze all the African and Asian countries, and Japan might be able to take Australasia although there might be a prolonged Aboriginal and Maori resistance. Africa also would be full of jungles that could hold out for some time, but they probably could never become an effective resistance bastion due to those jungles...and it's possible that a fascist could be elected in the US and/or Canada even without a J invasion. The question is...what happens to all those Latin American countries that'd be a bitch to individually conquer without a fascist base in the Americas? Do they become a highly fortified resistance base that's locked into a Cold War with the fascists?
The Axis forces AFAIK never were interested in conquering the Americas. So they'd probably do what they did pre-war: focus on trade deals to get what they wanted and exert political and economic influence, including through Spain, which was very helpful to Germany in maintaining it's links with Latin America during WW2.
Assuming the Allies don't drive out German spies during the war they could have a lot of continued positive links (in the sense of maintaining mutual interests).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latin_America_during_World_War_II#Axis_activity
 
As we all know, Nazi and Japanese war aims were mainly focused on Europe and Far East Asia, respectively, but with the world map in 1940 those regions would have given the Axis at least nominal sovereignty over all of Africa save Liberia and all of Asia/Pacific save Bhutan and some of the Arab/Persian states (yay, colonialism!)

That leaves the following independent states assuming a Reich victory in Europe and a Japanese victory in the Far East:

Bhutan

Liberia

Iran, Afghanistan

Saudi, North Yemen

Canada

Maybe Aus or NZ depending on what Tojo does

The USA

Haiti

Brazil

A ton of Hispanic countries that would take forever for the Axis to mop up

Presumably it'd be easy for a victorious Axis to squeeze all the African and Asian countries, and Japan might be able to take Australasia although there might be a prolonged Aboriginal and Maori resistance. Africa also would be full of jungles that could hold out for some time, but they probably could never become an effective resistance bastion due to those jungles...and it's possible that a fascist could be elected in the US and/or Canada even without a J invasion. The question is...what happens to all those Latin American countries that'd be a bitch to individually conquer without a fascist base in the Americas? Do they become a highly fortified resistance base that's locked into a Cold War with the fascists?
Not sure what the point of listing those countries was. And I would think that Nepal would be just as, if not more likely, to be listed than Bhutan. Also the issue that Tojo hardly had the power over the Japan in order to decide by himself what to do with Australasia. The idea of some prolonged Aboriginal resistance being the main thing to fear in Australia is absurd. They were a minority and hardly as well armed as the Anglo-Australians, who may well have thought themselves fighting to the death. Ahhh, and South Africa should probably be on the list. Liberia is going to find itself in trouble if it doesn't have a protector, if only because the Germans wouldn't want Africans in charge fo any place. I expect the British and Americans would keep helping them out unless both were invaded. Even if they did, the Brits would give Liberia protection.


Don't forget Argentina and Peron on the Axis side, of course.
For any explicit reason? I don't know of him wishing to invade anyone and he was elected. Hell, he was elected two times before a coup overthrew him, then came back for another win later on, after the military junta stepped down and the various democrats, socialists, etc voted him back in. He was also in good terms with Israel, in case anyone makes any unfuinded claims of him being a Nazi sympathizer, and was deemed to be lacking in any anti-semitism.

Now, I think that for an Axis Victory scenario we should be clear on if it is a Nazi-Japanese Victory, or one for the Axis as a whole. Their were loads of Italians in Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, and southern Brazil. Same with a decent mixture of Spaniards and a good amount of Germans, think I read somewhere that Hitler or some Nazis thought about forcing the South American countries to trade their Germans for Poles, but obviously that was never really acted upon. But yah, if this is an Axis victory with the Italians standing strong, and perhaps with the Spaniards making a decent showing, you will have those countries looking out for their interests and building ties with the Southern Cone.
 
@Thanksforallthefish What do you think of that?

Don't forget Argentina and Peron on the Axis side, of course.

The short story is that Perón was not a fascist or a nazi. He was a nationalist, of course, but a very pragmatic one. Perón himself apparently wasn't too much of a fan of Nazism (famously ordering the German flag to be replaced by an Argentine one in a majority German town in Córdoba, for example), he was more alligned with Mussolini's Italy. When Perón saw the writing on the wall, he quickly alligned with the Allies. And most of the Argentine population supported the Allies. Actual Nazis in Argentina were mostly in the German inmigrant population, and they weren't much popular. It is true Perón welcomed Nazi refugees. He also welcomed Jewish and other European refugees. Basically he didn't care as long as they could be of benefit to the country.

The Allies saw Argentina as a possible Axis-leaning country, but Argentina was content just to sell food and other goods to both sides (and I would argue it would have done so under any government). They could have gone full Allies; in fact I would argue that given popular support, it's more likely than the all-too common Nazi Argentina in many TLs.

In any case, the Peronist government was a thorn on the side of the US and UK for economic reasons (nationalization and protectionism in a country that once was considered the UK's economic playground) so they would try to make Argentina fall in line with coups and supporting the opposition as they did OTL. With a Nazi victory in Europe they would probably redouble those efforts, using 'collaboration' (neutrality) as an excuse to remove Perón.

One interesting thing is that besides the United States, Argentina has the largest Jewish population in the Americas, and it would face little pressure to enact discriminatory laws. Who would enforce them? Frothing-at-the-mouth antisemites weren't that many and mostly far from power, and unless Germany was comitted to a transatlantic invasion to kill them all it couldn't do nothing but complain or at most impose sanctions. So it would become a center of Jewish culture and population in the face of a Nazi victory.

However in a complete Nazi victory world (with a fascist USA and Britain) Argentina, regardless of the government, would have to allign itself with the Axis, although I would argue it would be too far away to be under their thumb. But that's a low proability scenario, and the world would be completely different.

Also, any outright Nazi/Axis country in Latin America would be in danger of a direct invasion from the US.
 
However in a complete Nazi victory world (with a fascist USA and Britain) Argentina, regardless of the government, would have to allign itself with the Axis, although I would argue it would be too far away to be under their thumb. But that's a low proability scenario, and the world would be completely different.

I remember reading a early 50s quote of Peron, at the time that almost all latin america was under democratic populist governments, that he wanted to create a south american bloc. I don't have the quote here neither more info about this, so I ask you: He really wanted to make a latim american bloc to counter soviet and american influence? And if he did, what could this idea be played on a axis victory scenario?
 
I remember reading a early 50s quote of Peron, at the time that almost all latin america was under democratic populist governments, that he wanted to create a south american bloc. I don't have the quote here neither more info about this, so I ask you: He really wanted to make a latim american bloc to counter soviet and american influence? And if he did, what could this idea be played on a axis victory scenario?

Yes:

"La integración continental de la América Latina es
indispensable: el año 2000 nos encontrará unidos o dominados, pero esa
integración ha de ser obra de nuestros países, sin intervenciones extrañas
de ninguna clase, para crear, gracias a un mercado ampliado, sin fronteras,
las condiciones más favorables para la utilización del progreso técnico y la
expansión económica; para evitar divisiones que puedan ser explotadas;
para mejorar el nivel de vida de nuestros 200 millones de habitantes..."

The above quote was wrote during his exile in Madrid around 1968. (the book is called La Hora De Los Pueblos)

That project would be ATLAS. An interesting proposition, to be sure. While I have to look for some more sources, Pan-Americanism featured in some Peronist propaganda (not as prominently as Argentine nationalism, but it was there):

006.jpg



And during Perón's first administration, he seemed very kneen on exporting Justicialism to other nations, or at least making a Latin American bloc. Those dreams were cut short of course with the Revolución Libertadora. But he still worked on it as shown in the quote.

It would be nice material for a Latin America TL.
 
I remember reading a early 50s quote of Peron, at the time that almost all latin america was under democratic populist governments, that he wanted to create a south american bloc. I don't have the quote here neither more info about this, so I ask you: He really wanted to make a latim american bloc to counter soviet and american influence? And if he did, what could this idea be played on a axis victory scenario?
Reminds me of talk of making a block between Italy, Spain, and Vichy France. I am unsure if it was Hitler or Mussolini who wanted it. Anyways, I see a Latin American bloc (or a general bloc for the Americas) as not being especially pro-Axis. At least not for the Nazi portion of it. Maybe not the Japanese either. I can see em viewing the Germans with utter loathing and claim them to be monsters due to their anti-church programs and, rather more importantly, why they seem to be murdering nearly every priest or monk in Eastern Europe. German-nationalists in South America may be Disappeared as they would be a reminder of the excuses the Germans initially used for invading their neighbors, as well as how Germans would be given so many special privileges in the Balkans, though one or two of the countries there had, IOTL, tried to send their Germans to the Reich to avoid such excuses being used against them. I can see (though I did read about this s suggestion part many, many years ago) that the Germans of South America would act like German-Americans did during WWI, changing their names for further integration. It also could be taken as a sign of loyalty. Either "I'm taking my stand here with you guys" or "now they will have to guess who counts as Aryan". Something like that.
 
It would be nice material for a Latin America TL.

In 1954, presidente Vargas received a letter of Peron, congratulating him for his social policies and the industrialization of Brazil. This made the pro american party UDN to publish the documents claiming that Vargas wanted to annex brazil into argentina and create a super Viceroyalty of La Plata, this was met by a huge public outrage, but the UDN continued and asked for Vargas impeachment, that was a so ridiculous proposition that even some members of the UDN voted against it, rejecting the proposal.

that the Germans of South America would act like German-Americans did during WWI, changing their names for further integration.

This really happened, the grandad of a friend of mine took years to open a german school on the state of Santa Catarina (his granddad was a german immirant), but a month after the school opened, Vargas passed integration policies that forced him to close the school.

Some other harsher policies happened, after a U boat was sunk on the brazilian coast, the government feared that the germans living close to the coast could have been supplying the axis with information, and so the entire german population was "evacuated" to the interior. Italians, romanians, japanese and other minorities from axis countries were forced to carry a special document and they could only speak in portuguese.
 
Yes:

"La integración continental de la América Latina es
indispensable: el año 2000 nos encontrará unidos o dominados, pero esa
integración ha de ser obra de nuestros países, sin intervenciones extrañas
de ninguna clase, para crear, gracias a un mercado ampliado, sin fronteras,
las condiciones más favorables para la utilización del progreso técnico y la
expansión económica; para evitar divisiones que puedan ser explotadas;
para mejorar el nivel de vida de nuestros 200 millones de habitantes..."

The above quote was wrote during his exile in Madrid around 1968. (the book is called La Hora De Los Pueblos)

That project would be ATLAS. An interesting proposition, to be sure. While I have to look for some more sources, Pan-Americanism featured in some Peronist propaganda (not as prominently as Argentine nationalism, but it was there):

006.jpg



And during Perón's first administration, he seemed very kneen on exporting Justicialism to other nations, or at least making a Latin American bloc. Those dreams were cut short of course with the Revolución Libertadora. But he still worked on it as shown in the quote.

It would be nice material for a Latin America TL.
But how viable a South American integration focused in keeping American interests out can be in a world where the USA is the enemy of the remaining world powers? In other words, during the Cold War (or in the 1930s or the 2000s) South American nations banding together to minimize American influence in the region isn't that important to the USA because the USA main relationships would be with European and East-Asian countries. In an Axis victory world the USA would only be able to look for allies and partners in the Americas. A USA in an Axis victory world which also features a strong anti-American South American joint policy would be a USA isolated from nearly the rest of the planet.
 

ar-pharazon

Banned
This is one thing that disappointed with the man in the high castle-what would happen to Latin America.

I'd guess the Japanese would get the Andean Region and the Germans get Brazil and the north north east.
 
This is one thing that disappointed with the man in the high castle-what would happen to Latin America.

I'd guess the Japanese would get the Andean Region and the Germans get Brazil and the north north east.

There could be a Andean line, everything east goes for Germany and everything west goes to Japan. Italy could get some parts of Brazil and Argentina, due the large italian minority there.
 
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